Rushydro: double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth, but debt added RUB 243 bn over the year

On June 3, 2026, Rushydro reported Q1 2026 results: revenue grew 19.0% YoY to RUB 210,941 mn, EBITDA rose 45.2% to RUB 79,184 mn, and net profit increased 96.6% to RUB 37,235 mn. This review examines what drove the growth and why debt remains elevated.

Key takeaways

— Revenue +19.0% – record quarter on higher prices and volumes

— EBITDA margin 37.5% – best in recent years

— Net profit doubled, but ex-one-offs growth is more modest

— Operating cash flow covers capex, but debt keeps rising

— Leverage at 2.97x EBITDA – above the three-year average

— No dividends paid, model implies zero payouts

Key figures, RUB bn

Revenue +19.0% – record quarter on higher prices and volumes

In Q1 2026, Rushydro's revenue reached RUB 210,941 mn, up 19.0% YoY – the best quarterly result in the company's history. The main contributors were the 'Rushydro Generation' and 'Sales' segments: the former's revenue rose from RUB 58,354 mn to RUB 73,232 mn, the latter from RUB 58,162 mn to RUB 76,811 mn.

In the 'Rushydro Generation' segment, growth was driven by higher wholesale electricity sales (from RUB 25,734 mn to RUB 35,729 mn) and capacity sales (from RUB 25,626 mn to RUB 28,372 mn). In the sales segment, retail revenue increased from RUB 53,416 mn to RUB 69,753 mn. The 'Far East Energy Companies' segment also contributed: third-party revenue rose from RUB 62,293 mn to RUB 64,607 mn.

EBITDA margin 37.5% – best in recent years

EBITDA for Q1 2026 reached RUB 79,184 mn, up 45.2% YoY. The EBITDA margin improved to 37.5% from 30.8% a year earlier – the highest level in recent years.

The main contributor was the 'Rushydro Generation' segment, where EBITDA rose from RUB 38,575 mn to RUB 52,221 mn. The 'Far East Energy Companies' segment also showed significant growth – from RUB 10,012 mn to RUB 22,018 mn. Operating expenses excluding depreciation and non-cash items rose only 7.6% (from RUB 141,267 mn to RUB 152,000 mn), which, with revenue up 19.0%, drove margin expansion.

Net profit doubled, but ex-one-offs growth is more modest

Net profit for Q1 2026 amounted to RUB 37,235 mn versus RUB 18,938 mn a year earlier – up 96.6%. However, a significant part of the increase is due to one-off factors: in Q1 2025 there was an impairment loss on fixed assets of RUB 1,771 mn, while in the current period it decreased to RUB 845 mn.

In addition, finance costs declined from RUB 19,178 mn to RUB 14,351 mn, also supporting profit. Excluding these factors, net profit growth would have been less impressive but still double-digit.

Operating cash flow covers capex, but debt keeps rising

Operating cash flow for Q1 2026 amounted to RUB 73,248 mn, up 50.7% YoY (RUB 48,614 mn). Capital expenditures increased from RUB 44,996 mn to RUB 67,746 mn, but operating cash flow still covers them: free cash flow before financing was about RUB 5.5 bn.

Despite this, net debt increased by RUB 31.3 bn during the quarter – to RUB 737,433 mn. Over the last 12 months, it rose by RUB 243.0 bn. The main reason is the large-scale investment program: quarterly capex reached RUB 67,746 mn, and on a segment basis – RUB 80,660 mn. The company finances construction partly through borrowings: long-term loan proceeds for the quarter were RUB 119,804 mn, repayments – RUB 100,469 mn.

Leverage at 2.97x EBITDA – above the three-year average

At the end of Q1 2026, net debt stood at RUB 706,313 mn (per balance sheet), and the net debt to EBITDA ratio for the last 12 months was 2.97x. This is above the average level of the last three years, judging by the EV/EBITDA multiple, which is 3.60x versus the three-year average of 4.45x.

Rising debt amid a sustained investment program is a key risk to the credit profile. The company still generates sufficient operating cash flow, but if capex continues to grow and EBITDA does not increase at the same pace, leverage may exceed a comfortable level.

No dividends paid, model implies zero payouts

Over the last 12 months, Rushydro has not paid dividends, and our model estimates the next payout at RUB 0.0 per share. At the same time, the fair yield for this name, in our view, is 10.5%, and the implied payout ratio is 0.3 of profit.

The absence of dividends amid high debt and a large investment program makes the stock less attractive for income-oriented investors. The dividend policy question remains open: the company may resume payouts after completing key construction projects, but so far this has not happened.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Rushydro had a strong Q1 2026: revenue grew 19.0%, EBITDA rose 45.2%, and net profit doubled. Operating cash flow covers capex, but debt keeps rising – it added RUB 243.0 bn over the year, and the ratio to EBITDA reached 2.97x. The key question for shareholders is whether the company can slow debt growth without cutting its investment program and when dividends will return. So far, there is no answer.