Novatek H1 2026: profit nearly flat, but cash flow and dividends support the stock

24 июля 2026 года Новатэк раскрыл консолидированную промежуточную сокращённую финансовую отчётность за первое полугодие 2026 года. Выручка выросла на 4,0% до 836,3 млрд руб., EBITDA – на 5,3%, а чистая прибыль снизилась на 2,8% до 221,0 млрд руб. В обзоре разберём, что поддержало маржу, куда ушёл денежный поток и почему дивидендная доходность остаётся двузначной.

Key takeaways

— Выручка за полугодие выросла на 4,0% – до 836,3 млрд руб., в основном за счёт реализации углеводородов

— EBITDA-маржа подросла до 27,0% с 26,7% годом ранее, несмотря на рост налогов

— Чистая прибыль снизилась на 2,8% – до 221,0 млрд руб., из-за роста расходов по налогу на прибыль

— Операционный денежный поток за полугодие сократился до 172,2 млрд руб. с 195,7 млрд годом ранее

— Чистый долг отрицательный – минус 39,3 млрд руб., отношение к EBITDA за 12 месяцев – минус 0,1

— Дивиденды за 12 месяцев – 82,73 руб. на акцию, доходность 9,0%, что выше среднего по рынку

— Акция после выхода отчёта подешевела на 9,1%, но P/E 15,8 и EV/EBITDA 7,0 – ниже трёхлетних средних

Key figures, RUB bn

Revenue for the half-year rose 4.0% to RUB 836.3 bn, driven mainly by hydrocarbon sales

For H1 2026, Novatek's revenue reached RUB 836.3 bn, up 4.0% from the same period a year earlier. The main contribution came from hydrocarbon sales – RUB 816.6 bn versus RUB 783.1 bn in H1 2025. Other revenue, by contrast, declined slightly to RUB 19.7 bn from RUB 21.2 bn.

The revenue growth is modest, but it was accompanied by improved profitability: EBITDA margin rose to 27.0% from 26.7%. This suggests the company offset higher operating costs and taxes through pricing or sales mix – the exact reason is not disclosed in the report.

EBITDA margin edged up to 27.0% from 26.7% a year earlier, despite higher taxes

EBITDA for H1 2026 rose 5.3% to RUB 225.8 bn (calculated as revenue of RUB 836.3 bn minus operating expenses excluding depreciation). EBITDA margin was 27.0% versus 26.7% in H1 2025.

At the same time, taxes other than income tax and other payments to the budget increased significantly – to RUB 153.5 bn from RUB 101.2 bn a year earlier. The RUB 52.3 bn rise in tax payments likely reflects changes in tax legislation or one-off charges, but the company provides no breakdown. Nevertheless, revenue growth and control over other expenses helped improve the margin.

Net profit fell 2.8% to RUB 221.0 bn, due to higher income tax expenses

Net profit for H1 2026 was RUB 221.0 bn, down 2.8% from RUB 227.3 bn a year earlier. Operating profit rose to RUB 170.7 bn from RUB 155.0 bn, and other income (expenses), net, increased to RUB 96.8 bn from RUB 93.9 bn.

The main drag was higher income tax expense: RUB 46.5 bn versus RUB 21.6 bn in H1 2025. The effective tax rate rose, partly due to changes in deferred taxes. As a result, net margin fell to 26.4% from 28.3%.

Operating cash flow for the half-year fell to RUB 172.2 bn from RUB 195.7 bn a year earlier

Operating cash flow for H1 2026 was RUB 172.2 bn versus RUB 195.7 bn for the same period of 2025. The RUB 23.5 bn decline came despite higher profit before tax – RUB 267.5 bn versus RUB 248.9 bn. The reason lies in working capital changes and other cash movements: a negative adjustment of RUB 59.5 bn versus RUB 38.0 bn a year earlier.

Investing cash flow improved: the outflow narrowed to RUB 43.9 bn from RUB 70.9 bn, suggesting lower capital expenditure in H1. Financing outflow, by contrast, rose to RUB 154.9 bn from RUB 52.1 bn – likely due to dividend payments and debt repayment.

Net debt is negative at minus RUB 39.3 bn, with a net debt/EBITDA ratio of minus 0.1

As of end-H1 2026, Novatek's net debt was minus RUB 39.3 bn, meaning cash and equivalents exceed debt. The net debt/EBITDA ratio for the trailing twelve months is minus 0.1, indicating a net cash position.

Over the last 12 months, net debt declined by RUB 149.8 bn, and by RUB 3.1 bn since the previous reporting date. The fair value of long-term borrowings fell to RUB 269.7 bn from RUB 305.1 bn at end-2025. Debt burden remains minimal, giving the company room to fund investments and dividends.

Dividends over 12 months – RUB 82.73 per share, yield 9.0%, above the market average

Over the last 12 months, Novatek paid dividends of RUB 82.73 per share, providing a yield of 9.0% at the current price. Our model estimates the next payout at RUB 82.73 per share, implying a forward yield of 9.0%. The fair yield for this stock, in our view, is 10.5%, meaning the market prices the share slightly above our fair level.

The payout ratio is 0.55 of profit – the company distributes just over half of net profit. This is a conservative policy that preserves funds for new projects. Still, at the current price, the dividend yield remains attractive for income-oriented investors.

The stock fell 9.1% after the report, but P/E of 15.8 and EV/EBITDA of 7.0 are below three-year averages

The share price before the report was RUB 1001.5; it rose 1.7% on the release day but has since fallen 9.1% as of August 17, 2026. Despite this, multiples remain moderate: P/E for the trailing twelve months is 15.8, and EV/EBITDA is 7.0.

The three-year average EV/EBITDA for Novatek is 8.98, meaning the current multiple is 22% below its own history. This suggests the market is pricing in either lower hydrocarbon prices, higher tax burden, or export-related risks. For an investor, this means the stock trades at a discount to its average valuation, but a positive catalyst is needed for a reversal.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The H1 2026 report shows resilient operations: revenue and EBITDA are growing, margins are improving, and net debt remains negative. However, net profit declined due to higher taxes, and operating cash flow contracted. The dividend yield of 9.0% remains high, but the market, judging by the share price move, doubts its sustainability. The key question for holders is whether the company can offset higher taxes through prices and volumes, and whether this will lead to dividend cuts. Multiples are below three-year averages, but a positive catalyst is needed for a re-rating.