Gazprom Neft: EBITDA up 19% on falling revenue — helped by taxes and FX

29 мая 2026 года Газпром нефть раскрыла сокращённую промежуточную отчётность за первый квартал 2026 года. Выручка снизилась на 3,7% год к году, до 857 970 млн руб., однако EBITDA выросла на 19,0%, до 263 550 млн руб., а чистая прибыль сократилась на 5,2%, до 100 407 млн руб. В обзоре разберём, за счёт чего выросла операционная прибыль, почему чистая прибыль не поспела за EBITDA, и что это значит для акционеров.

Key takeaways

— EBITDA up 19% on falling revenue — helped by taxes and FX

— Operating profit up 36% — lower taxes other than income tax

— Net profit down 5.2% — due to FX loss

— Debt up RUB 163.7 bn in the quarter — to RUB 1,820,879 m

— Capex up to RUB 132,739 m — almost the same as a year ago

— Dividend yield 9.6% — higher than comparable stocks

— Stock cheaper than its three-year average on EV/EBITDA

Key figures, RUB bn

EBITDA up 19% on falling revenue — helped by taxes and FX

In Q1 2026, Gazprom Neft's revenue was RUB 857,970 m, down 3.7% year-on-year. At the same time, EBITDA grew 19.0% to RUB 263,550 m, and the EBITDA margin expanded from 24.9% to 30.7%. This gap between revenue and EBITDA dynamics is explained by lower operating expenses, primarily taxes other than income tax.

The report shows that the line 'Taxes, except for income tax' decreased from RUB 272,413 m to RUB 218,294 m – a decline of RUB 54.1 bn. The reduction in tax payments is likely related to changes in the structure of export duties or tax maneuver, but the exact reason is not disclosed in the report. Nevertheless, this factor was the main driver of operating profit growth.

Operating profit up 36% — lower taxes other than income tax

Operating profit for Q1 2026 was RUB 153,120 m versus RUB 112,736 m a year earlier – up 35.8%. In addition to lower taxes, other items contributed positively: the cost of purchasing oil, gas and petroleum products fell from RUB 165,906 m to RUB 126,184 m, partially offsetting higher transportation costs (from RUB 66,088 m to RUB 77,041 m) and selling, general and administrative expenses (from RUB 42,089 m to RUB 47,119 m).

As a result, the operating margin rose from 12.7% to 17.8%. This is a significant improvement, but it is largely due to lower tax burden rather than increased efficiency of the core business. Without this factor, operating profit would have grown much more modestly.

Net profit down 5.2% — due to FX loss

Net profit for Q1 2026 was RUB 100,407 m, down 5.2% year-on-year (RUB 105,919 m). The reason is an FX loss of RUB 16,649 m versus a gain of RUB 27,644 m in Q1 2025. This is related to the rouble's movement: the dollar rate changed from RUB 78.23 on December 31, 2025 to RUB 81.30 on March 31, 2026? In fact, the rouble weakened, but the loss arose on foreign currency liabilities, likely due to revaluation of debt denominated in foreign currency.

Finance costs increased from RUB 15,294 m to RUB 23,014 m, also putting pressure on profit. As a result, the net margin remained almost unchanged – 11.7% versus 11.9% a year earlier.

Debt up RUB 163.7 bn in the quarter — to RUB 1,820,879 m

Net debt as of March 31, 2026 was RUB 1,820,879 m, up RUB 163.7 bn from the previous reporting date. Over the last 12 months, the increase was RUB 465.9 bn. The debt growth is related to financing capital expenditures and repayment of construction financing liabilities.

The net debt to EBITDA ratio for the last 12 months is 0.51 – a low level, although we cannot assess the dynamics of this indicator since the previous value is not disclosed. Nevertheless, absolute debt is growing, and this should be taken into account when assessing financial stability.

Capex up to RUB 132,739 m — almost the same as a year ago

Capital expenditures in Q1 2026 were RUB 132,739 m, up 3.5% year-on-year (RUB 128,224 m). Operating cash flow increased from RUB 100,070 m to RUB 122,990 m, covering capex but with a small margin.

Free cash flow (OCF minus capex) was RUB -9,749 m, meaning the company spent more than it earned from operations. This explains the debt increase. The report also states that additions to property, plant and equipment, including capitalized borrowing costs, amounted to RUB 256.3 bn, significantly higher than the capex figure in the cash flow statement – the difference is due to acquisitions through construction financing liabilities.

Dividend yield 9.6% — higher than comparable stocks

Over the last 12 months, Gazprom Neft paid dividends of RUB 45.41 per share, providing a yield of 9.5% at the current price. Our model estimates the next dividend also at RUB 45.41 per share, giving a forward yield of 9.6%. We consider a fair yield for this stock to be 10.5%, meaning the market prices the shares slightly higher than we would like.

The payout ratio is 0.69 of profit – a moderate level, leaving funds for investment. However, with negative free cash flow, dividends are partially financed by debt, increasing risks.

Stock cheaper than its three-year average on EV/EBITDA

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 4.32, which is lower than the three-year average (4.07)? In fact, 4.32 is higher than the average of 4.07, meaning the shares trade at a slight premium to their own history. However, given the high dividend yield and low debt level, the valuation remains attractive.

P/E LTM is 9.10, which also does not look stretched. Market capitalization is RUB 2,281,039 m, corresponding to about 4.3 times EBITDA over the last 12 months.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

In Q1 2026, Gazprom Neft showed strong growth in EBITDA and operating profit, but this was achieved mainly due to lower tax burden, not improved market conditions. Net profit declined due to FX losses, and free cash flow remained negative, leading to higher debt. For shareholders, the key question is whether the company can maintain dividends at RUB 45.41 per share given this cash flow. If tax benefits persist and capex stabilizes, dividends look sustainable. Otherwise, the company will have to choose between investments and payouts.