COHERENT CORP.: revenue accelerated to +34%, but shares trade at 47.5x EV/EBITDA — the market has already paid for the optical boom

12 августа 2026 года COHERENT CORP. раскрыла результаты за четвёртый квартал 2026 финансового года: выручка выросла на 34% год к году до 2 045,5 млн долл., EBITDA margin составила 15,9%, чистая прибыль — 240,5 млн долл.. Акции на релизе прибавили 8,2%, но с тех пор потеряли 7,6%. Вердикт: бумага выглядит скорее непривлекательно — при текущей цене рынок оценивает рост, который уже во многом заложен в мультипликаторы.

Key takeaways

— Выручка четвёртого квартала выросла на 34% год к году, до 2 045,5 млн долл., благодаря сегменту Datacenter Communications, который принёс 1 615 млн долл.

— EBITDA margin в отчётном квартале составила 15,9% — ниже, чем в предыдущем квартале (17,6%), из-за роста операционных расходов и разовых статей.

— Чистая прибыль в 240,5 млн долл. включает разовые доходы от продажи инвестиций и бизнеса, без которых результат был бы скромнее.

— Долговая нагрузка: net debt / EBITDA LTM — 2,27, при этом за квартал чистый долг вырос на 1,1 млрд долл., до 1 227,3 млн.

— Капитальные затраты в квартале взлетели до 555,7 млн долл. — почти вдвое выше предыдущего квартала, что давит на свободный денежный поток.

— Компания не платит дивиденды по обыкновенным акциям; в 2026 финансовом году выплаты составили лишь 11,4 млн долл. — менее 0,1% капитализации.

— При капитализации 59,4 млрд долл. и EV/EBITDA LTM 47,5 акции торгуются значительно выше собственной истории, что оставляет мало места для ошибки.

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Fourth-quarter revenue grew 34% YoY to $2,045.5 million, driven by the Datacenter Communications segment, which contributed $1,615 million.

In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), COHERENT CORP. reported revenue of $2,045.5 million, up 34% YoY. The company attributes the growth to the transition of data center architectures from copper to optical connectivity, boosting demand for its products.

The main driver was the Datacenter Communications segment: quarterly revenue reached $1,615 million, versus $1,018 million a year earlier. The Industrial segment, however, declined from $511 million to $430.5 million, indicating divergent trends across end markets.

For the full fiscal 2026, revenue grew 22.5% to $7,118 million, with the datacenter segment up 40% while industrial fell 10%. The company expects further acceleration: Q1 FY2027 guidance implies revenue of $2.2–2.4 billion, representing 20–30% YoY growth.

EBITDA margin in the reported quarter was 15.9% — lower than the previous quarter's 17.6%, due to higher operating expenses and one-off items.

EBITDA for Q4 FY2026 was $324.6 million, corresponding to a margin of 15.9%. In the prior quarter, the margin was higher at 17.6% (EBITDA of $317.2 million on revenue of $1,805.6 million).

The margin decline is attributed to higher operating expenses: the quarter included restructuring charges of $6.1 million and impairment of assets held-for-sale of $44.3 million. Excluding these items, operating profit would have been higher, but even the adjusted margin (non-GAAP operating margin of 21.8%) is not clearly improving sequentially due to one-off effects.

Over the trailing twelve months, EBITDA reached $1,312.1 million, implying a margin of about 18.5% — above the quarterly figure, indicating quarterly volatility.

Net profit of $240.5 million includes one-off gains from the sale of investments and a business, without which the result would have been more modest.

Net profit attributable to COHERENT CORP. shareholders for Q4 was $240.5 million, versus a loss of $95.6 million a year earlier. However, the profit includes one-off items: the quarter reflected a gain on sale of investment ($38.4 million in other income) and earlier a gain on sale of a business ($124.1 million for the full year).

Excluding these items, net profit would have been roughly $40–80 million lower. Over the trailing twelve months, net profit was $805.0 million, but again a significant portion is one-off gains from asset sales.

GAAP EPS for the quarter was $1.19, non-GAAP $1.74. The difference is mainly due to amortization of acquired intangibles and share-based compensation.

Leverage: net debt / EBITDA LTM is 2.27, while net debt increased by $1.1 billion during the quarter to $1,227.3 million.

At the end of the quarter, net debt stood at $1,227.3 million, up $1.1 billion from the previous reporting date. However, over the trailing twelve months, net debt declined by $0.9 billion, reflecting balance sheet improvement during the year.

The net debt / EBITDA ratio for the trailing twelve months is 2.27. This is a moderate level, but it does not account for the recent quarterly increase in debt.

The quarterly debt increase is linked to heavy capital expenditures ($555.7 million) and purchases of short-term investments ($825 million on the balance sheet), which temporarily increased the need for borrowed funds.

Capital expenditures surged to $555.7 million in the quarter — nearly double the prior quarter, pressuring free cash flow.

Capital expenditures in Q4 reached $555.7 million, versus $289.7 million in Q3. The company is expanding manufacturing capacity to meet datacenter demand, requiring significant investment.

Operating cash flow for the quarter was only $69.5 million, resulting in negative free cash flow of about -$486 million after capex. Over the trailing twelve months, operating cash flow was just $79.6 million — extremely low for a company with $7.1 billion in revenue.

The low operating cash flow is due to working capital build-up: accounts receivable grew from $964 million to $1,343 million over the year, inventories from $1,438 million to $2,581 million. The company is financing growth through debt and equity issuance (raised $1,998.6 million from common share issuance in FY2026).

The company does not pay dividends on common shares; in FY2026, payments totaled only $11.4 million — less than 0.1% of market cap.

COHERENT CORP. does not pay dividends on common shares. In FY2026, payments totaled $11.4 million, implying a yield of less than 0.1% at the current market cap of $59.4 billion.

These payments likely relate to preferred shares, which were converted to common during the year. Common shareholders receive no dividend income.

The company reinvests free cash flow into capacity expansion and debt repayment, typical for a high-growth phase.

With a market cap of $59.4 billion and EV/EBITDA LTM of 47.5, the shares trade well above their own history, leaving little room for error.

COHERENT CORP.'s market capitalization is $59,407 million, and EV/EBITDA for the trailing twelve months is 47.5. This is a very high valuation: even for a fast-growing company, such a multiple implies that EBITDA growth will continue at an accelerated pace for many years.

P/E LTM is 73.8, also indicating a premium. According to the portal's model, the upside to fair value is 0% — meaning the current price already fully reflects expectations.

For context, over the trailing twelve months, EBITDA grew roughly 30% (from $1,012 million to $1,312 million), but even such growth does not justify a multiple of 47.5. Investors would need the company to continue growing 30–40% annually for several years to justify the current price.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

COHERENT CORP.'s Q4 FY2026 report showed strong revenue growth (+34% YoY) and a return to profit, but the quality of that profit is mixed: a significant portion is one-off gains from asset sales, and operating cash flow remains minimal. Capital expenditures doubled, necessary for capacity expansion, but putting pressure on the balance sheet. At the current price, shares trade at 47.5x EV/EBITDA LTM, leaving zero upside according to the portal's model. Verdict — rather unattractive: investors would need the company to continue growing 30–40% annually for several years to justify such a valuation, and any execution misstep could lead to a significant correction.