US Large-Cap Stocks — Valuations, P/E & Dividends

On 30 October EQT Corporation reported results for the third quarter of 2026. EBITDA came in at USD 1,143.0 million, net profit at 279.0 million, and operating cash flow at 1,083.0 million. Year on year, EBITDA fell 11.5% and profit 16.9%. Leverage remains moderate at 1.12x EBITDA over the trailing twelve months, and the EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.2 is a third below its own three-year average of 9.6. The stock looks rather attractive at the current price: the discount to its own history and low debt outweigh the drop in quarterly results, even though the portal's model points to minus 40% versus fair value.

Key takeaways

— Quarterly EBITDA fell 11.5% year on year to USD 1,143.0 million as gas price pressure outweighed volume growth

— Net profit dropped 16.9% to USD 279.0 million, falling deeper than EBITDA because of depreciation and interest

— Operating cash flow of USD 1,083.0 million nearly matches EBITDA – working capital did not eat the result

— Leverage at 1.12x EBITDA over the trailing twelve months is low, but the facts do not allow a direction of change

— EV/EBITDA of 6.2 versus its own three-year average of 9.6 – the stock trades 36% below its own history

— A dividend yield of 1.17% is modest against the key rate and offers little cushion to the holder

— The portal's model implies minus 40% to fair value – the market has already priced in a gas price recovery

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Quarterly EBITDA fell 11.5% year on year to USD 1,143.0 million as gas price pressure outweighed volume growth

Revenue for the third quarter of 2026 is not disclosed in the facts, so the top-line dynamics can only be judged from the year-on-year EBITDA comparison. The metric fell to USD 1,143.0 million from 1,291.6 million a year earlier – a decline of 11.5%. This is a direct consequence of lower realised gas prices with production volumes unchanged.

For reference: in the second quarter of 2026 revenue contracted 29.2% year on year after growing 94.2% in the first quarter. Such amplitude points to high sensitivity of revenue to price conditions and to an exceptionally strong base in the prior year. The deceleration of the top line from the first to the second quarter is not a reversal but a normalisation after an anomalous first quarter.

The key question is the sustainability of EBITDA at around USD 1.1 billion per quarter. With leverage at 1.12x EBITDA, the company retains a margin of safety even if the metric declines further. However, if gas prices stay low for another two or three quarters, full-year EBITDA could come in noticeably below last year's.

Net profit dropped 16.9% to USD 279.0 million, falling deeper than EBITDA because of depreciation and interest

Net profit for the third quarter of 2026 was USD 279.0 million versus 335.9 million a year earlier – a decline of 16.9%. The fall is deeper than EBITDA because depreciation and interest expenses do not shrink with revenue. Operating profit for the reported quarter is not disclosed in the facts, but the gap between EBITDA and net profit of 864.0 million points to the weight of these items.

For the holder, what matters more than quarterly profit is its ability to cover the dividend. Over the trailing twelve months net profit was USD 2,654.8 million against a market capitalisation of 35,199.6 million – a P/E of 13.3. On such a profit base dividend payments remain covered, although quarterly profit volatility is high.

One-off items in the reported quarter are not identified in the facts, so attributing profit or loss to any write-offs is not possible. The observed decline is operational dynamics, not the result of accounting adjustments.

Operating cash flow of USD 1,083.0 million nearly matches EBITDA – working capital did not eat the result

Operating cash flow for the third quarter of 2026 was USD 1,083.0 million – 94.7% of EBITDA. Such conversion is enviable: working capital did not pull money away, and the quarter's result is backed by real cash. For a gas company this is an important sign of reporting quality.

Capital expenditure for the reported quarter is not disclosed in the facts, so free cash flow cannot be calculated directly. However, over the preceding quarters capex held in the range of 500–650 million, and at that level free cash flow remains positive. This means the company can fund both the dividend and production maintenance without increasing debt.

Over the trailing twelve months operating cash flow was USD 6,311.4 million against EBITDA of 6,967.8 million. Conversion of 90.6% on an annual basis confirms that the quarterly figure is not accidental. The cash machine works steadily even as prices decline.

Leverage at 1.12x EBITDA over the trailing twelve months is low, but the facts do not allow a direction of change

Net debt at the latest balance-sheet date was USD 7,805.0 million, which against trailing-twelve-month EBITDA of 6,967.8 million gives a ratio of 1.12. This is moderate leverage for a gas company: debt is covered by annual EBITDA with room to spare, and interest expenses do not eat into profit. However, the facts do not contain an earlier value of this ratio, so claiming that leverage rose or fell is not possible.

Absolute net debt for the quarter is not disclosed, but prior reporting dates show the company consistently reduced it: from 9,222.6 million at end-2024 to 7,805.0 million at end-2025. That reduction occurred alongside EBITDA growth, which delivered the comfortable ratio. The current 1.12 is a level, not a trend.

For the holder this means debt risk is not the main issue in the investment case. Even if EBITDA fell by a quarter, the ratio would stay below 1.5 – a level the market typically considers comfortable for the sector. The main risk shifts to gas prices rather than the balance sheet.

EV/EBITDA of 6.2 versus its own three-year average of 9.6 – the stock trades 36% below its own history

The trailing-twelve-month EV/EBITDA multiple is 6.2 against its own three-year average of 9.6 – a 36% discount. This is the strongest argument for the stock: the market values the company noticeably cheaper than it valued itself over three years. The reason lies in lower gas prices and, consequently, EBITDA expectations.

The trailing-twelve-month P/E is 13.3, which against net profit of 2,654.8 million and a market capitalisation of 35,199.6 million looks moderate. Return on equity is low at 3.36%, reflecting a large asset base and depreciation in the cost structure. For a gas company this is normal but provides no additional support to the valuation.

The portal's model, which reprices EBITDA at current commodity prices at the target EV/EBITDA, implies minus 40% to fair value. This means the market has already priced in a gas price recovery, and if prices stay at current levels the stock could prove overvalued. The discount to history is real, but it reflects not only undervaluation but also the risk of further profit decline.

A dividend yield of 1.17% is modest against the key rate and offers little cushion to the holder

The trailing-twelve-month dividend yield is 1.17% – a low level for a market where the risk-free rate is higher. The company pays a dividend, but it is not the main element of return: the holder is betting on share price appreciation rather than current income. With net profit of 2,654.8 million and a market capitalisation of 35,199.6 million, payments remain covered, but their size is modest.

Our estimate of the current-year dividend assumes the profit base stays at the trailing-twelve-month level and the current payout policy holds. It hinges on two factors: the payout ratio and profit sustainability. If EBITDA continues to decline, the company may revise the payout downward to preserve the balance sheet.

For the holder the dividend is a pleasant addition, not a reason to buy the stock. At a yield of 1.17% against a key rate that is not stated in the facts but is certainly higher, the dividend provides no safety cushion. The main return must come from multiple recovery or gas price growth.

The portal's model implies minus 40% to fair value – the market has already priced in a gas price recovery

The portal's model reprices EBITDA at current commodity prices and the target EV/EBITDA, then compares the result with market capitalisation. The outcome is minus 40% to fair value – in other words, at current gas prices the stock trades above its calculated value. This is not a market consensus but our own model, and it points to risk.

The gap between the discount to history (36% to the 9.6 average) and the model's negative upside is easily explained: the three-year average includes periods of high gas prices when EBITDA was significantly higher. If prices do not recover, the multiple could stay low longer than the market expects.

For the holder this means the current valuation cuts both ways. On one hand, the discount to its own history creates upside potential if prices recover. On the other, the portal's model shows the market has already priced that recovery in, and without it the stock could correct.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The quarter delivered the expected decline: EBITDA fell 11.5% and profit 16.9% year on year, a direct consequence of gas prices rather than deteriorating operational efficiency. The strong side is EBITDA-to-cash conversion at 94.7% and moderate debt at 1.12x EBITDA. The weak side is the 1.17% dividend yield and the portal model's negative upside of minus 40%. The real question for the holder now is how quickly gas prices recover: without that, the 36% discount to history could persist for a long time. The verdict is rather attractive, with a caveat for the commodity cycle.

On 28 October Seagate Technology Holdings plc reported results for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 ended 2 October 2026. Revenue was $4,233.0m, EBITDA $2,217.0m and net profit $1,761.0m; year on year revenue rose 61.0%, EBITDA 189.4% and net profit 220.8%. Sequentially, however, revenue fell from $4,233.0m in the prior quarter, and the annual growth rate slowed from 61.0% in the first quarter of 2026 to minus 11.8% in the reported quarter. At the current price the share looks attractive: EV/EBITDA of 25.5 is below its own three-year average of 32.8, and the portal model implies +45% upside.

Key takeaways

— Reported-quarter revenue rose 61.0% year on year but fell sequentially from $4,233.0m

— EBITDA margin rose to 52.4% from 29.1% a year earlier

— Net profit tripled, with $44.0m of it eaten by losses on debt transactions

— Free cash flow reached $1,479.0m on capital expenditure of $211.0m

— Debt was cut to $2.4bn, and net debt/EBITDA LTM stands at 0.38

— The dividend was raised by about 3%, to $0.76 per share

— EV/EBITDA of 25.5 is below its own three-year average of 32.8, and the portal model implies +45% upside

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Reported-quarter revenue rose 61.0% year on year but fell sequentially from $4,233.0m

Revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 was $4,233.0m against $2,629.0m a year earlier, up 61.0%. That is the highest quarterly level in the available history: revenue was $2,155.0m in the prior quarter and $3,112.0m the quarter before that.

Sequentially, however, revenue fell from $4,233.0m in the prior quarter, and the annual growth rate slowed from 61.0% in the first quarter of 2026 to minus 11.8% in the reported quarter. The year-on-year comparison shows strong growth, but the sequential trend shows a pullback from the prior quarter's peak.

The company attributes demand to compounding data creation and long-term customer visibility. The release gives only general wording on mass-capacity storage demand and the HAMR roadmap; there is no segment revenue split in the press-release text.

EBITDA margin rose to 52.4% from 29.1% a year earlier

EBITDA for the reported quarter was $2,217.0m, or 52.4% of revenue, against 29.1% a year earlier. Such margin expansion on revenue of $4,233.0m means almost the entire revenue increase flowed through to EBITDA.

GAAP gross margin was 57.3% against 39.4% a year earlier, and non-GAAP gross margin 57.8% against 40.1%. GAAP operating margin was 48.8% against 26.4%. Cost of revenue rose to $1,806.0m from $1,592.0m, far slower than revenue.

Operating expenses stayed modest: product development $200.0m, marketing and administrative $159.0m. The combination of revenue growth and nearly flat costs produced the margin jump. Whether this level holds is the main question for the next quarter.

Net profit tripled, with $44.0m of it eaten by losses on debt transactions

Net profit for the reported quarter was $1,761.0m against $549.0m a year earlier, up 220.8%. Net margin was 41.6% against 20.9%. GAAP diluted EPS was $7.59 against $2.43.

There are one-off items inside the profit. Losses on debt transactions were $44.0m, the result of early debt retirement. Restructuring and other added $4.0m of expense. Excluding these, non-GAAP net profit would have been $1,781.0m and non-GAAP EPS $7.68.

Tax adjustments in the non-GAAP reconciliation were minus $107.0m. The one-offs therefore do not fundamentally distort the picture: profit growth came mainly from operating margin, not from one-off gains.

Free cash flow reached $1,479.0m on capital expenditure of $211.0m

Operating cash flow for the reported quarter was $1,690.0m against $532.0m a year earlier. Capital expenditure was $211.0m against $105.0m. Free cash flow was $1,479.0m against $427.0m a year earlier.

The company calls this its highest ever free cash flow in the September quarter. Working capital absorbed part of the flow: receivables rose by $283.0m and inventories by $129.0m. That was offset by a $101.0m increase in payables and $272.0m in accruals.

Cash at quarter-end was $1,258.0m against $1,704.0m at the start. The decline reflects $1,262.0m of debt repayment and $400.0m of share repurchases. With free cash flow at this level the company funds debt, dividends and buybacks without external borrowing.

Debt was cut to $2.4bn, and net debt/EBITDA LTM stands at 0.38

During the quarter the company retired about $1.2bn of principal debt, cutting gross debt to $2.4bn. After quarter-end a further $750.0m was retired, bringing gross debt to $1.6bn. Net debt on the latest annual balance sheet was $2,194.0m.

Net debt/EBITDA over the last twelve months is 0.38. That is a level, not a direction: the earlier value is not in the facts, so no claim can be made about whether the ratio rose or fell. Interest expense for the quarter was $41.0m against $80.0m a year earlier, reflecting the lower debt.

The $44.0m loss on debt transactions is the price of early retirement. It is one-off and does not change the fact that leverage is now low and interest expense is falling.

The dividend was raised by about 3%, to $0.76 per share

The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.76 per share, payable on 7 January 2027 to holders of record on 23 December 2026. That is about 3% above the prior level. Dividends paid in the reported quarter were $168.0m; the declared dividend for the quarter was $0.74 per share.

At a share price of $644.21, the $0.76 quarterly dividend gives about 0.47% per quarter, and the trailing yield in the facts is 0.44%. That is a modest yield, below the key rate. The dividend is not the main argument here: the company returns capital mainly through buybacks – $400.0m in the quarter.

Our estimate for the current year's dividend, based on the declared quarterly level of $0.76 and four payments, is about $3.04 per share. It rests on the reported quarter's profit and on low leverage. The risk to the payout is a fall in profit if the 52.4% margin does not hold, and rising capital expenditure.

EV/EBITDA of 25.5 is below its own three-year average of 32.8, and the portal model implies +45% upside

The trailing twelve-month EV/EBITDA multiple is 25.5 against its own three-year average of 32.8, i.e. 22% below. On this multiple the share is cheaper than its own history. The trailing P/E is 33.3.

The portal model, which sets EBITDA growth against the target multiple and market capitalisation, implies upside to fair value of +45%. This is our own estimate, not a market consensus and not a target price.

The share price before the release was $644.21; it added 3.7% on the release day and 3.7% from the release to 27 October 2026. The market reacted positively to the report. The share is held in the live model strategy 'US AI infrastructure' on the portal – a fact, not an argument for the verdict.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The strength of the report was not revenue but margin: EBITDA margin of 52.4% and net profit of $1,761.0m tripled, while free cash flow reached $1,479.0m. Part of the profit was eaten by $44.0m of one-off losses on debt transactions, but they do not change the picture. The main question for a holder is whether the margin holds if next quarter's revenue falls short of the $4.8bn guidance. With EV/EBITDA at 25.5 against its own three-year average of 32.8 and +45% upside on the portal model, the share looks attractive.

On October 27, Visa reported results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. Revenue was $12,139 million, operating profit $7,262 million, and net income $6,002 million. Year-on-year revenue growth slowed to 8.5% from 11.4% a quarter earlier, while net income rose 18% on lower one-off charges. The share looks rather attractive: the network keeps an exceptional margin and returns capital generously, though the revenue pace and one-off items warrant caution.

Key takeaways

— Net income rose 18% largely because one-off charges fell from $899 million to $469 million

— Operating margin holds at 59.8% — the network earns on transaction volume, not on price

— Client incentives rose 21% and eat into revenue, but that is the price of retaining issuers

— The company returned $5.2 billion to shareholders in the quarter and raised the dividend 16%

— Debt rose from $8,007 million to $11,499 million over nine months, yet interest expense fell

— The valuation remains high against its own history, and that is the main argument against

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, was $12,139 million, up 8.5% year on year. A quarter earlier growth was 11.4%, so the pace decelerated. The drivers show it too: payments volume rose 9% in constant dollars, processed transactions 10%, cross-border volume 14%.

Service revenue rose 14% to $5,255 million, data processing revenue 16% to $6,245 million, international transactions 8% to $4,115 million. Other revenue grew 40% to $1,647 million, but its contribution to overall growth is limited. Client incentives increased 21% to $5,123 million and are deducted from revenue, so their faster growth holds back the headline figure.

The slowdown to 8.5% is still double-digit growth in constant dollars, but the market is used to higher rates. In the next report it matters whether growth returns to 11% or 8.5% becomes the new norm.

Net income rose 18% largely because one-off charges fell from $899 million to $469 million

Net income was $6,002 million versus $5,090 million a year earlier, up 18%. A significant part of that growth, however, comes from lower one-off items: the litigation provision for the MDL case fell from $899 million to $469 million. The prior year also included amortisation and acquisition costs.

Non-GAAP net income rose 13% to $6,552 million, and non-GAAP EPS rose 17% to $3.48. The gap between GAAP and non-GAAP this quarter also includes a $282 million donation of investments to the Visa Foundation and a $37 million tax effect.

So the 18% profit growth is not purely operational — it also reflects the comparison base. Without the lower one-off charges, profit growth would have been more modest.

Operating margin holds at 59.8% — the network earns on transaction volume, not on price

Operating profit was $7,262 million on revenue of $12,139 million, a margin of 59.8%. A year earlier operating profit was $6,148 million on revenue of $10,724 million, a 57.3% margin. The 2.5 percentage point gain is driven primarily by the lower litigation provision.

Operating expenses rose 7% to $4,877 million while revenue rose 13%. The restraint came from the litigation line, but general and administrative expenses jumped 52% to $829 million, partly due to the foundation donation. Excluding one-off items, expenses would have risen 12%.

A margin near 60% is a sign of the network effect: each additional dollar of revenue brings almost 60 cents of operating profit. As long as transaction volumes grow, the margin should stay high.

Client incentives rose 21% and eat into revenue, but that is the price of retaining issuers

Client incentives — rebates and payments to issuers and partners — were $5,123 million, up 21% year on year. They are deducted from gross revenue, so their faster growth directly holds back net revenue. For the full year incentives reached $18,317 million, or about 40% of gross revenue.

Incentives growing 21% while revenue grows 13% means the company is paying more and more to retain and attract clients. This is a competitive environment: banks and payment systems demand ever-better terms. As long as Visa keeps market share, such spending is justified, but further growth could cap the margin.

In the next report, watch the ratio of incentive growth to revenue growth. If incentives keep outpacing revenue, margin pressure will build.

The company returned $5.2 billion to shareholders in the quarter and raised the dividend 16%

In the quarter Visa spent $5.2 billion on buybacks and dividends. Buybacks were $4.0 billion (about 11 million shares at an average of $369.12), dividends $1.2 billion. For the full year capital returned reached $25.6 billion.

The board raised the quarterly dividend 16% to $0.780 per share. At the current price that gives a yield of about 0.8%. The dividend remains modest compared with buybacks, which are the main way of returning capital.

Free cash flow for the year was $23,728 million of operating cash flow minus $1,671 million of capex, or about $22 billion. That comfortably covers dividends and buybacks. The capital return policy remains generous and sustainable.

Debt rose from $8,007 million to $11,499 million over nine months, yet interest expense fell

Net debt at the end of June 2026 was $11,499 million versus $8,007 million at the end of September 2025. The increase reflects $2,995 million of new notes issued, $5,565 million of repayments, and share buybacks. Yet quarterly interest expense fell to $192 million from $210 million a year earlier.

Leverage remains low: net debt is about 0.2 times annual EBITDA. The company has a significant cushion. Its rating remains high and borrowing costs low.

In the next report it matters whether the company keeps raising debt for buybacks. For now it creates no risks, but if revenue growth slows it could limit flexibility.

The valuation remains high against its own history, and that is the main argument against

At a share price near $370 and EPS of $12.32 over the last twelve months, the P/E is about 30. That is above the three-year average range of 25–28. The current valuation assumes high growth and margin persist.

The free cash flow yield is about 3.5%, below the yield on 10-year US Treasuries. Investors pay a premium for stability and business quality. But if revenue growth slows to 8.5%, that premium could come under pressure.

To sustain the current valuation, the company needs to return revenue growth to double digits or show profit acceleration through buybacks. Otherwise the multiple could compress.

Bottom line

The report's strength remains an exceptional margin — 59.8% operating and 49.4% net — and generous capital returns: $5.2 billion in the quarter and a 16% dividend increase. However, 18% profit growth is partly due to lower one-off charges, while revenue slowed to 8.5%. The key question for a holder is whether a valuation near 30 times earnings can hold as growth decelerates. Verdict: rather attractive, with a caveat on the growth slowdown.

On 27 October HUBBELL INC reported results for the third quarter of 2026. Revenue came in at USD 1,872.5 million, up 24.6% year on year, operating profit at USD 408.7 million, and net profit at USD 262.5 million, only 2.7% above the level of a year earlier. Net margin compressed from 17.0% to 14.0%, and the market responded with a 5.5% drop in the share on the release day. With an EV/EBITDA multiple of 18.8, in line with its own three-year average, and the portal model's upside at -6%, the share looks neutral: revenue acceleration is there, but it does not reach profit.

Key takeaways

— Revenue grew 24.6% year on year, an acceleration from 15.3% in the second quarter

— Net profit added only 2.7% because margin compressed from 17.0% to 14.0%

— Operating profit rose to USD 408.7 million, but its growth lags revenue growth

— Operating cash flow of USD 323.0 million covers profit but does not offset the margin compression

— Leverage at 1.5x EBITDA LTM remains moderate

— The EV/EBITDA multiple of 18.8 is in line with its own three-year average of 18.6

— Dividend yield of 1.3% is modest and provides no support to the share

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue grew 24.6% year on year, an acceleration from 15.3% in the second quarter

In the third quarter of 2026, HUBBELL INC's revenue reached USD 1,872.5 million, 24.6% above the level of the same quarter a year earlier. This is a marked acceleration from 15.3% in the second quarter of 2026 and from 4.1% in the third quarter of 2025.

The acceleration began in the fourth quarter of 2025, when growth was 11.9%, and continued in the first quarter of 2026 at 11.1%. The third quarter was therefore the fastest in terms of growth over recent periods.

Such revenue growth is a strong point of the report, but it does not translate into profit in the same proportion, as the margin dynamics show.

Net profit added only 2.7% because margin compressed from 17.0% to 14.0%

Net profit in the third quarter of 2026 was USD 262.5 million, only 2.7% above the level of a year earlier. With revenue growth of 24.6%, such profit dynamics mean that net margin compressed from 17.0% to 14.0%.

The 3 percentage point compression in margin meant that profit barely grew despite strong revenue growth. This is the key contradiction of the report: the company is scaling up, but earning less on each dollar of revenue than a year ago.

The reason for the margin compression is not disclosed in the facts, so we limit ourselves to stating it: revenue growth is not accompanied by proportional profit growth.

Operating profit rose to USD 408.7 million, but its growth lags revenue growth

Operating profit in the third quarter of 2026 was USD 408.7 million. This is above the level of the third quarter of 2025, when the figure was USD 330.6 million, but operating profit growth is noticeably slower than revenue growth.

Operating margin therefore also declined: with revenue of USD 1,872.5 million and operating profit of USD 408.7 million it is about 21.8%, whereas a year earlier with revenue of USD 1,502.4 million and profit of USD 330.6 million it was about 22.0%.

The decline in operating margin is less pronounced than in net margin, but it confirms the overall picture: costs are growing faster than revenue.

Operating cash flow of USD 323.0 million covers profit but does not offset the margin compression

Operating cash flow in the third quarter of 2026 was USD 323.0 million, above net profit of USD 262.5 million. This means the company converts profit into cash, and the quality of earnings remains acceptable.

For comparison, in the third quarter of 2025 operating cash flow was USD 284.3 million, implying growth of about 13.6%. This is slower than revenue growth but still positive.

Over the last twelve months operating cash flow was USD 1,020.3 million against net profit of USD 908.9 million, which also points to healthy conversion.

Leverage at 1.5x EBITDA LTM remains moderate

Net debt at the latest balance sheet date was USD 2,004.8 million, and the ratio of net debt to EBITDA over the last twelve months was 1.5. This is a moderate level of leverage.

EBITDA over the last twelve months was USD 1,334.5 million. Against such a base, debt of USD 2,004.8 million looks manageable.

The direction of change in the ratio is not disclosed in the facts, so we limit ourselves to stating the level: 1.5x EBITDA is not a leverage that creates risk by itself.

The EV/EBITDA multiple of 18.8 is in line with its own three-year average of 18.6

EV/EBITDA over the last twelve months is 18.8, almost exactly in line with its own three-year average of 18.6. The share is valued by the market the same way as on average over the last three years.

P/E over the last twelve months is 25.4. With net profit of USD 908.9 million and market capitalisation of USD 23,127.1 million, this corresponds to the current valuation.

On the portal's model, the upside of the share to fair value is estimated at -6%. This means the current price is somewhat above what our model, based on EBITDA growth and the target multiple, implies.

Dividend yield of 1.3% is modest and provides no support to the share

Dividend yield over the last twelve months is 1.3%. This is a low level that does not provide meaningful support for the share.

With net profit over the last twelve months of USD 908.9 million and market capitalisation of USD 23,127.1 million, dividend payments at a 1.3% yield correspond to about USD 302.7 million, or about 33% of profit. This is a moderate payout ratio.

Compared with the key rate: a yield of 1.3% is well below the risk-free rate, so the dividend is not an argument in favour of the share.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The strong point of the report is the acceleration of revenue to 24.6% year on year, the fastest in recent periods. The weak point is profit: net profit grew only 2.7% because margin compressed from 17.0% to 14.0%. Operating cash flow of USD 323.0 million covers profit, and leverage at 1.5x EBITDA LTM remains moderate. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 18.8 is in line with its own three-year average, and the portal model's upside is -6%. The question for a holder now is whether the company can restore margin while maintaining revenue growth.

Range Resources Corporation reported third-quarter 2026 results. Revenue came in at USD 784.4 million, up 4.8% year on year, net profit at USD 175.3 million, up 21.5%, and the net margin rose to 22.4% from 19.3% a year earlier. Operating cash flow for the quarter was USD 307.6 million, net debt at end-September stood at USD 780.9 million, or 0.53x LTM EBITDA. The stock trades below its own history on EV/EBITDA (9.9x versus a three-year average of 10.7x), but a 0.69% dividend yield barely compensates for the risk, and the portal's model implies -54% to fair value – so the share looks rather unattractive at the current price.

Key takeaways

— Revenue added 4.8% after an 11.3% drop the previous quarter – there is acceleration, but its scale is modest

— Profit rose 21.5% on revenue up 4.8% – the margin climbed to 22.4% from 19.3%

— Operating cash flow of USD 307.6 million covers profit, but quarterly capex is not disclosed

— Net debt of USD 780.9 million equals 0.53x LTM EBITDA – leverage is moderate

— A 0.69% dividend yield gives the holder little support at the current price

— EV/EBITDA of 9.9x is below its own three-year average of 10.7x – an 8% discount to history

— The portal's model implies -54% to fair value – the market is pricing in higher commodity prices

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue added 4.8% after an 11.3% drop the previous quarter – there is acceleration, but its scale is modest

In the third quarter of 2026 revenue was USD 784.4 million, up 4.8% year on year. This reverses the second quarter, when revenue fell 11.3% year on year – the trend accelerated, but the gain itself remains small.

A quarter earlier revenue was USD 759.6 million, so sequentially it rose 3.3%. The year-on-year comparison is flattered by a weak base in the third quarter of 2025, when revenue was USD 748.5 million.

The acceleration does not change the fact that the company operates in a narrow band: over the last four quarters revenue ranged from USD 759.6 million to USD 1,034.2 million, and the current level is closer to the bottom. Sustained growth needs a stronger comparison next quarter.

Profit rose 21.5% on revenue up 4.8% – the margin climbed to 22.4% from 19.3%

Net profit for the third quarter of 2026 was USD 175.3 million versus USD 144.3 million a year earlier, up 21.5%. With revenue up 4.8%, such outperformance means the net margin rose to 22.4% from 19.3%.

The gap between profit and revenue growth – about 17 percentage points – shows that most of the gain came not from volumes but from lower costs or one-off items. The report does not break down which cost line fell, so the specific source of savings cannot be named.

Second-quarter 2026 profit was USD 195.3 million, so sequentially it fell 10.2%. Quarterly profit dynamics are uneven, and the current level is below the first-quarter peak of USD 341.6 million.

Operating cash flow of USD 307.6 million covers profit, but quarterly capex is not disclosed

Operating cash flow for the third quarter of 2026 was USD 307.6 million – 1.75x net profit of USD 175.3 million. The excess comes from non-cash charges, primarily depreciation, which is not disclosed as a separate line.

Over the last 12 months operating cash flow was USD 1,419.3 million on revenue of USD 3,400.0 million, meaning about 42% of revenue converts into cash. That is high for the sector, but it also reflects that capex is not deducted from operating cash flow.

Third-quarter 2026 capex is not disclosed in the facts, so free cash flow for the quarter cannot be calculated. In the second quarter capex was USD 181.5 million, in the first USD 158.3 million; if the third quarter is close to those levels, free cash flow stays positive but well below operating cash flow.

Net debt of USD 780.9 million equals 0.53x LTM EBITDA – leverage is moderate

Net debt at 30 September 2026 was USD 780.9 million versus USD 676.5 million at 30 June 2026 – an increase of USD 0.1 billion over the quarter. A year earlier, at 30 September 2025, net debt was USD 1,198.1 million, so over 12 months it fell by USD 0.4 billion.

The ratio of net debt to LTM EBITDA is 0.53x. That is a moderate level: the company services its debt without strain, and even if EBITDA halved the ratio would stay below 1.1x.

Interest expense is not disclosed in the facts, so the cost of servicing the debt cannot be assessed. But with a market capitalisation of USD 13,275.1 million, net debt is less than 6% of the company's value – debt is not the main risk for a holder.

A 0.69% dividend yield gives the holder little support at the current price

The trailing 12-month dividend yield is 0.69%. With a market capitalisation of USD 13,275.1 million, that corresponds to payouts of about USD 91.6 million a year, roughly 10% of LTM net profit of USD 891.4 million.

Our estimate: if current profit and the payout ratio hold, the 2026 dividend will stay in the same range – a yield of about 0.7%. The payout depends on profit, which was USD 341.6 million in the first quarter but USD 195.3 million and USD 175.3 million in the second and third; if quarterly profit stays near USD 175 million, the annual base would be about USD 700 million, and a USD 91.6 million payout would take about 13% of profit.

A 0.69% yield is well below the key rate and does not compensate for the risk of holding the share. For comparison, an EV/EBITDA of 9.9x implies an EBITDA yield of about 10%, but most of that goes to capex and debt service rather than dividends.

The payout could shrink if profit falls: if LTM EBITDA declines while debt stays at USD 780.9 million, the company may direct free cash flow to debt rather than dividends. Also, if capex rises above USD 181.5 million a quarter, free cash flow will contract.

EV/EBITDA of 9.9x is below its own three-year average of 10.7x – an 8% discount to history

LTM EV/EBITDA is 9.9x. The three-year average for this multiple is 10.7x, so the stock trades 8% below its own history. This is the only comparison the facts allow: there is no sector or peer data in them.

LTM P/E is 14.9x. With net profit of USD 891.4 million and a market capitalisation of USD 13,275.1 million, that implies an earnings yield of about 6.7%, above the 0.69% dividend yield but below the key rate.

The discount to history may reflect market expectations for commodity prices: the portal's model, which reprices EBITDA at current commodity prices, implies -54% to fair value. In other words, the market values the company above what it would be worth at current prices for its output.

The portal's model implies -54% to fair value – the market is pricing in higher commodity prices

According to the portal's model, which reprices EBITDA at current commodity prices and a target EV/EBITDA, the fair value of the share is 54% below the current market price. This is our own estimate, not a market consensus or a target price.

Such a gap means the market is pricing in higher commodity prices than current ones. If commodity prices stay at current levels, the stock has downside; if prices rise, the model will revise upwards.

For a holder this is the main argument against buying at the current price: even with an 8% discount to its own EV/EBITDA history, the stock looks expensive relative to current prices for its output.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The quarter's strength was profit: it rose 21.5% on revenue up 4.8%, and the margin climbed to 22.4% from 19.3%. But that growth came from costs, not volumes, and the report does not break down which line delivered the savings – the durability of that source cannot be verified. Debt is moderate: 0.53x LTM EBITDA, and over the year net debt fell from USD 1,198.1 million to USD 780.9 million. A 0.69% dividend yield offers little support, and the portal's model implies -54% to fair value. The verdict is rather unattractive: an 8% discount to its own EV/EBITDA history does not outweigh the risk of falling commodity prices and weak dividend support.

On 27 October, Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. reported results for the third quarter of 2026. Revenue reached $759.0 million, up 48.8% year on year and 18% above the second quarter; operating profit was $53.7 million and net profit $39.1 million, a 5.2% net margin versus -2.1% a year earlier. The company guided fourth-quarter revenue to $800–860 million, but operating cash flow for the nine months remained negative at -$116.7 million. In our view the share looks rather attractive: the portal's model implies +31% upside to fair value, although leverage of 2.47x EBITDA and weak cash generation temper the assessment.

Key takeaways

— Revenue of $759.0 million grew 48.8% year on year, and products, not services, delivered almost all of the increase

— Gross margin rose to 16.9% from 16.1% in the prior quarter, but operating profit was also helped by one-off adjustments

— Net profit of $39.1 million includes one-off items; without them the result is more modest

— Operating cash flow for the nine months was negative $116.7 million because of inventory build

— Debt rose to $635.1 million after a convertible notes offering, and the debt-to-EBITDA ratio stands at 2.47

— Fourth-quarter guidance of $800–860 million implies further acceleration in growth

— Valuation at 19.1x EV/EBITDA and 88.1x P/E looks high, but the portal's model implies +31% upside

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue of $759.0 million grew 48.8% year on year, and products, not services, delivered almost all of the increase

Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $759.0 million versus $510.0 million a year earlier. Growth of 48.8% accelerated markedly from 24.3% in the second quarter. Products generated $681.9 million and services $77.1 million; a year earlier products contributed $445.0 million and services $65.0 million. Products thus delivered almost all of the increase, while services added only $12.1 million.

The sequential comparison is also strong: second-quarter revenue was $644.9 million, so the quarter-on-quarter increase was 18%. The company attributes this to accelerating customer demand and expanded production. Fourth-quarter guidance of $800–860 million implies that growth will continue and exceed the third-quarter level.

Gross margin rose to 16.9% from 16.1% in the prior quarter, but operating profit was also helped by one-off adjustments

Gross margin in the third quarter was 16.9% versus 16.1% in the second quarter and 16.1% a year earlier. Gross profit reached $128.4 million. Operating margin rose to 7.1% from 4.6% in the prior quarter. Adjusted operating margin, excluding amortisation of intangibles, stock-based compensation and one-off items, was 9.0%.

One-off items include $6.8 million of intangible amortisation, $6.9 million of stock-based compensation, $0.6 million of restructuring and $0.6 million of legal costs. Without them operating profit would have been $68.6 million instead of $53.7 million. This means part of the margin improvement is one-off in nature, although underlying revenue growth also contributed to higher profitability.

Net profit of $39.1 million includes one-off items; without them the result is more modest

Net profit attributable to Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. was $39.1 million, or $0.85 per diluted share, versus a loss of $10.9 million a year earlier. The net margin reached 5.2% versus -2.1% a year earlier. Adjusted net profit was $53.2 million, or $1.15 per share.

The gap between GAAP and adjusted profit includes $6.8 million of amortisation, $6.9 million of stock-based compensation, $2.6 million of unrealised foreign-exchange losses and tax effects. One-off items thus raised adjusted profit relative to GAAP, but some of them – stock-based compensation, for instance – recur every quarter. The actual cash result is lower, as the weak operating cash flow confirms.

Operating cash flow for the nine months was negative $116.7 million because of inventory build

For the nine months of 2026, operating cash flow was negative at -$116.7 million versus positive $57.5 million a year earlier. The main reason is a $332.4 million increase in inventories and a $63.6 million increase in receivables, partly offset by a $131.1 million increase in payables. The company is building working capital to meet higher demand.

Capital expenditure for the nine months was $45.3 million. Free cash flow therefore remains negative. This is a key risk: revenue and profit growth is not yet converting into cash, and if growth slows the company will have to reduce inventories, which could hit margins.

Debt rose to $635.1 million after a convertible notes offering, and the debt-to-EBITDA ratio stands at 2.47

Long-term debt at the end of the third quarter was $635.1 million versus $467.0 million at the end of 2025. The increase reflects a $600.0 million convertible notes offering, partly offset by $481.5 million of bank loan repayments. Cash declined to $270.9 million from $311.8 million.

The ratio of net debt to trailing-twelve-month EBITDA is 2.47. This is a moderate level, but it has risen from a year earlier when debt was lower. Quarterly interest expense was $1.5 million versus $9.9 million a year earlier, reflecting lower cost of debt service after refinancing.

Fourth-quarter guidance of $800–860 million implies further acceleration in growth

The company expects fourth-quarter 2026 revenue in the range of $800–860 million. This is above the third quarter ($759.0 million) and implies continued growth. Diluted earnings per share guidance is $1.02–1.26 on a GAAP basis and $1.11–1.35 on an adjusted basis.

If the company reaches the top end of guidance, annual revenue could exceed $3 billion. However, the guidance does not account for a possible slowdown in demand or supply-chain issues. In addition, working-capital growth may require additional financing.

Valuation at 19.1x EV/EBITDA and 88.1x P/E looks high, but the portal's model implies +31% upside

The trailing-twelve-month EV/EBITDA ratio is 19.1 and P/E is 88.1. Return on equity is 7.6%. For a company with negative free cash flow, these multiples look high. However, our valuation model, based on EBITDA growth and a target multiple, implies +31% upside to fair value.

Since the report was published, the share has risen 10.2% and trades at $46.71. Market capitalisation is $2.34 billion. If the company can improve conversion of profit into cash flow, the multiples could decline without a fall in the share price. Otherwise, the valuation will remain under pressure.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The strong side of the report is revenue acceleration to 48.8% and margin expansion, along with confident fourth-quarter guidance. The weak side is negative cash flow and rising debt. One-off items supported profit but not cash. The question for a holder now is whether the company can convert growth into cash without increasing debt. In our view the share is rather attractive: the portal's model implies +31%, but the risks warrant attention.

On 27 October BOEING CO reported third-quarter 2026 results. Revenue came in at $24,188 million, up 3.9% year on year, EBITDA was $938 million, operating profit $354 million and net loss $116 million. The improvement against last year's $5,337 million quarterly loss is real, but revenue growth decelerated from 8.0% in the second quarter to 3.9%, and Commercial Airplanes is again loss-making at the operating line. At 17.2 times trailing twelve-month earnings and 14.0 times EBITDA the share looks neutral: the recovery is under way, but durable profit is still some way off.

Key takeaways

— Revenue grew 3.9% year on year, but growth decelerated from 8.0% a quarter earlier

— Commercial Airplanes remained in an operating loss of $697 million

— Defense grew 15% and carried profit thanks to a one-off HRL Laboratories gain

— Global Services with an 18.3% margin remains the most stable profit source

— Free cash flow of $464 million does not cover the rise in debt

— Net debt rose to $36.4 billion, or 2.88 times EBITDA

— Backlog reached a record $745 billion, but conversion into profit lags

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue grew 3.9% year on year, but growth decelerated from 8.0% a quarter earlier

Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $24,188 million, up 3.9% year on year. That is a deceleration from the second quarter, when growth was 8.0%. The slowdown reflects a less favourable commercial delivery mix: Commercial Airplanes revenue fell 3% to $10,720 million even as deliveries rose by just one aircraft.

Defense grew 15% to $7,935 million on higher volume, and Global Services rose 4% to $5,574 million. These two segments offset the weakness in commercial airplanes. For the nine months, revenue was $70,965 million, up 8% year on year.

The revenue mix shows the company leaning more heavily on defense and services contracts, while commercial airplanes, historically the main driver, have yet to recover either volumes or margin.

Commercial Airplanes remained in an operating loss of $697 million

Commercial Airplanes posted an operating loss of $697 million in the third quarter on revenue of $10,720 million, a margin of negative 6.5%. A year earlier the loss was $5,353 million because of a 777X charge, so the current result looks better but remains negative.

The release attributes the result to a less favourable delivery mix, higher projected costs tied to future production rate increases and higher supply-chain costs. The 737 programme is progressing toward a stabilised rate of 47 aircraft per month, the 787 holds 8 per month, and the 777X remains on track for first delivery in 2027.

Certification of the 737-7 and 737-10 removes some regulatory uncertainty but does not solve the cost problem. Until the segment returns to operating profit, the company's overall result will depend on defense and services.

Defense grew 15% and carried profit thanks to a one-off HRL Laboratories gain

Defense, Space & Security revenue rose 15% to $7,935 million, operating profit was $492 million against $114 million a year earlier, and the margin was 6.2%. The release states directly that the result includes a $252 million gain on the sale of HRL Laboratories.

Without that sale, segment operating profit would have been about $240 million and the margin roughly 3%. That is materially less impressive than the reported figure. Operational improvement is present too, but its contribution is smaller than the one-off effect.

The segment won a U.S. Navy contract to design and build the F/A-XX fighter, not yet included in backlog, and a seven-year award to expand PAC-3 Seeker production. Segment backlog reached a record $101 billion, 23% of it from non-U.S. customers.

Global Services with an 18.3% margin remains the most stable profit source

Global Services revenue rose 4% to $5,574 million, operating profit was $1,019 million, and the margin was 18.3% against 17.5% a year earlier. It is the only segment that consistently generates profit and cash flow.

The margin improvement reflects favourable volume and mix. The segment won a U.S. Army contract to maintain the AH-64 Apache fleet, and its backlog reached $33 billion.

On quarterly revenue of about $5.6 billion, services generate almost $1 billion of operating profit – more than all other segments combined. It is what covers the commercial airplane losses and underpins cash flow stability.

Free cash flow of $464 million does not cover the rise in debt

Third-quarter operating cash flow was $1,496 million, capital expenditure $1,032 million and free cash flow $464 million. A year earlier free cash flow was $238 million, so there is improvement, but it is modest.

The release notes that operating cash flow reflects working-capital timing, partly offset by about $0.7 billion of Department of Justice settlement payments. Capex rose on higher investment at the Charleston and St. Louis sites.

For the nine months, free cash flow remains negative at minus $359 million. That is not enough to service debt: net debt rose from $13.1 billion on 30 June 2026 to $36.4 billion on 30 September, a $23.3 billion increase in the quarter.

Net debt rose to $36.4 billion, or 2.88 times EBITDA

Net debt at 30 September 2026 was $36,422 million. The ratio of net debt to trailing twelve-month EBITDA is 2.88. A year earlier, on 30 September 2025, net debt was $30.4 billion, so it rose by $6.1 billion over the year.

Consolidated debt is $45.9 billion, cash and marketable securities $20.7 billion. The company has $10.0 billion of undrawn credit facilities, providing a liquidity buffer.

Quarterly interest expense was $573 million, and $1,789 million for the nine months. With trailing twelve-month EBITDA of $12,668 million, leverage remains moderate, but the $23.3 billion quarterly increase in net debt needs an explanation that the release does not provide.

Backlog reached a record $745 billion, but conversion into profit lags

Total backlog rose to a record $745 billion, including more than 6,300 commercial airplanes worth $612 billion. Defense backlog is $101 billion and services $33 billion.

Such a backlog provides years of revenue visibility, but its conversion into profit depends on production rates and costs. While commercial airplanes run a negative margin, backlog growth does not translate into earnings.

In the third quarter Commercial Airplanes booked 300 net orders, including from Turkish Airlines, Ethiopian Airlines and Lufthansa. That confirms demand but does not solve the profitability problem.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The strength of the report was defense and services: Defense revenue rose 15%, the services margin reached 18.3%, and backlog hit a record $745 billion. But Commercial Airplanes is still in an operating loss, and revenue growth decelerated from 8.0% to 3.9%. Defense profit was partly one-off – $252 million from the HRL Laboratories sale. Net debt rose to $36.4 billion, and nine-month free cash flow is negative. The key question for a holder is when commercial airplanes will return to profit and generate enough cash flow to reduce debt. The verdict is neutral: the recovery is under way, but at 17.2 times earnings and 14.0 times EBITDA there is no margin for error.

On 27 October Robinhood Markets, Inc. released its results for the third quarter of 2026. Revenue came in at 1,424.0 million dollars, up 11.8% year on year, EBITDA at 808.0 million (+23.2%), and net profit at 468.0 million (–15.8%). Revenue growth slowed from 32.3% in the second quarter, and profit fell even as EBITDA rose: the EBITDA margin improved to 56.7% from 51.5%, while the net margin dropped to 32.9% from 43.6%. At an EV/EBITDA of 33.3 against its own three-year average of 37.2 the share is cheaper than its history, and on the portal's model the upside to fair value is +13%, so the stock looks rather attractive than neutral.

Key takeaways

— Revenue rose 11.8% year on year, but that is half the 32.3% pace of a quarter earlier

— EBITDA added 23.2%, and the margin rose to 56.7% from 51.5%

— Net profit fell 15.8%, and the margin compressed to 32.9% from 43.6%

— Operating cash flow for the quarter was 1,225.0 million dollars

— Leverage on net debt to LTM EBITDA is –1.66, meaning net debt is negative

— EV/EBITDA of 33.3 is 11% below its own three-year average of 37.2

— On the portal's model the upside to fair value is +13%

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue rose 11.8% year on year, but that is half the 32.3% pace of a quarter earlier

In the third quarter of 2026 revenue was 1,424.0 million dollars, 11.8% more than a year earlier. That is a slowdown from the second quarter, when growth reached 32.3%: the pace of revenue expansion more than halved.

The deceleration is visible in the annual series too: revenue grew 100.0% in the third quarter of 2025, 26.5% in the fourth, 15.1% in the first quarter of 2026 and 32.3% in the second. The current 11.8% is the slowest year-on-year increase in the last five quarters.

Still, the absolute level of revenue is the highest in the company's history: 1,424.0 million dollars against 1,308.0 million in the second quarter and 1,274.0 million in the third quarter of 2025. The company is not losing ground, it is simply growing more slowly than a year earlier, when the base was low.

EBITDA added 23.2%, and the margin rose to 56.7% from 51.5%

EBITDA for the third quarter of 2026 was 808.0 million dollars, 23.2% more than a year earlier. EBITDA growth outpaced revenue growth, so the EBITDA margin rose to 56.7% from 51.5% in the third quarter of 2025.

EBITDA growing faster than revenue on slower revenue growth means the costs included in EBITDA rose more slowly than revenue. The report does not disclose which cost line produced the saving, so we state only the fact: the margin rose by 5.2 percentage points.

For comparison, EBITDA was 479.0 million dollars in the second quarter of 2026 and 656.0 million in the third quarter of 2025. The current level is the highest in the last five quarters, and it was achieved on revenue that grew more slowly than a year earlier.

Net profit fell 15.8%, and the margin compressed to 32.9% from 43.6%

Net profit for the third quarter of 2026 was 468.0 million dollars, 15.8% less than a year earlier. EBITDA grew 23.2% and revenue 11.8%, so the profit decline did not originate at the operating level.

The net margin fell to 32.9% from 43.6% a year earlier. The gap between EBITDA growth and the profit decline means that below the operating line there were costs or losses that were absent or smaller a year earlier. The report does not disclose the cause, so we record the divergence itself rather than its source.

Over the last twelve months net profit was 1,984.0 million dollars. That is a level, not a third-quarter result: the annual figure spans four quarters and cannot be compared with quarterly dynamics.

Operating cash flow for the quarter was 1,225.0 million dollars

Operating cash flow for the third quarter of 2026 was 1,225.0 million dollars. That is a positive figure, and it exceeds net profit for the same quarter (468.0 million), so the cash result was better than the accounting one.

For a broker, operating cash flow largely reflects the movement of client funds and positions rather than the result of operations alone. Its level is therefore neither a signal of strength nor of weakness – it shows the direction of funding.

Over the last twelve months operating cash flow was 3,046.0 million dollars. That is an annual level, and it includes quarters with different signs: for example, the flow was negative in the third quarter of 2025 (–1,576.0 million) and positive in the second quarter of 2025 (3,509.0 million).

Leverage on net debt to LTM EBITDA is –1.66, meaning net debt is negative

Net debt at the latest annual reporting date was –4,040.0 million dollars, meaning cash exceeds debt obligations. The ratio of net debt to EBITDA over the last twelve months is –1.66: the company holds net cash rather than debt.

Negative net debt means the company carries no debt burden in the usual sense. That removes interest-rate and refinancing risk, but it says nothing about how the company uses its excess cash.

The net debt to EBITDA ratio is given as a level at the latest reporting date. An earlier value of this ratio is not in the facts, so we do not claim that leverage rose or fell.

EV/EBITDA of 33.3 is 11% below its own three-year average of 37.2

The EV/EBITDA multiple over the last twelve months is 33.3 against its own three-year average of 37.2. The share trades 11% cheaper than its three-year average, so on this multiple it is cheaper than its history.

The P/E over the last twelve months is 42.96. That is a high level, but it reflects annual profit rather than a quarter, and it cannot be compared with quarterly profit dynamics.

On the portal's model the upside to fair value is estimated at +13%. That is our own estimate, not a market consensus and not a target price: it is built on EBITDA growth and a target multiple.

On the portal's model the upside to fair value is +13%

On the portal's model the fair value of the share exceeds the current market price by 13%. The model relies on EBITDA growth and a target multiple, not on market consensus or analyst target prices.

Market capitalisation is 85,229.6 million dollars. At that capitalisation and an EV/EBITDA of 33.3 the model records a gap to fair value, but the gap is modest and sensitive to changes in EBITDA.

The share closed at 92.84 dollars before the release, added 1.9% on the release day and a further 1.9% from the release to 27 October. The market reaction was restrained and positive.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The strength of the quarter was EBITDA: 808.0 million dollars, up 23.2%, with a margin of 56.7% against 51.5% a year earlier. The weakness was net profit: 468.0 million, down 15.8%, with a margin of 32.9% against 43.6%, and the report does not disclose the reason for the divergence from EBITDA. Revenue grew 11.8%, but that is a slowdown from 32.3% in the second quarter. Leverage is negative (–1.66 on net debt to LTM EBITDA), and the EV/EBITDA of 33.3 is 11% below its own three-year average of 37.2. On the portal's model the upside to fair value is +13%, so at the current price the share looks rather attractive, but the key question for a holder is why profit is falling while EBITDA rises.

On October 27, American Tower released its third-quarter 2026 results. Revenue rose 2.5% to $2,785.4 million, adjusted EBITDA grew 0.9% to $1,832 million, while net income fell 14.4% to $780.8 million. The profit decline stems not from operations but from unrealized losses on equity investments of $71.5 million versus gains of $10.9 million a year earlier. Given steady cash flow, declining net debt and dividend yield, the stock looks rather attractive than neutral.

Key takeaways

— Revenue grew 2.5% but the pace decelerated from 4.7% a quarter earlier

— The 14.4% net income decline is due to paper investment losses, not operations

— Adjusted EBITDA added just 0.9%, margin slipped to 65.8%

— Free cash flow rose 0.2% to $986 million on lower capex

— Net debt fell $7.5 billion over the quarter to $35.7 billion

— The $1.79 per share dividend grew 5.3% and yields about 4%

— The company raised its 2026 outlook for the third time, mainly on data centers

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue grew 2.5% but the pace decelerated from 4.7% a quarter earlier

Revenue in the third quarter of 2026 was $2,785.4 million, up 2.5% year on year. A quarter earlier growth was 4.7%, so the dynamics decelerated. The slowdown is partly due to a decrease in non-cash straight-line revenue: in the reported quarter it was minus $24.0 million versus plus $27.7 million a year earlier.

The main contribution came from the data center segment, where revenue grew 16.3% in cash terms. Organic tenant billings growth was 1.1%, reflecting the maturity of the tower portfolio. The U.S. & Canada segment is forecast to see a 3.0% revenue decline for the year, again due to straight-line revenue.

For the investor, what matters is not the pace itself but its sustainability. A deceleration to 2.5% while data centers keep growing and the tower business remains stable looks more like normalization than a warning sign. However, if the slowdown continues, it will limit future dividend growth.

The 14.4% net income decline is due to paper investment losses, not operations

Net income in the reported quarter was $780.8 million, down 14.4% year on year. The release explicitly states that the dynamics were affected by unrealized losses on equity investments of $71.5 million versus unrealized gains of $10.9 million a year earlier. These are paper, non-cash items unrelated to operations.

Operating profit, meanwhile, rose to $1,269.0 million from $1,233.3 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA increased 0.9% to $1,832 million. So the operating business continued to grow, and the profit decline is explained solely by financial items.

The net margin fell to 28.0% from 33.6% a year earlier, but that is a consequence of the same one-off factors. Without them, profit would have been higher. To assess business sustainability, it is more important to look at EBITDA and cash flow, which remain stable.

Adjusted EBITDA added just 0.9%, margin slipped to 65.8%

Adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter of 2026 was $1,832 million, up 0.9% year on year. Growth is modest and lags revenue growth. The EBITDA margin slipped to 65.8% from 64.6% a year earlier, according to the release. The margin decline is partly due to a decrease in non-cash straight-line revenue, net, of $31.7 million versus plus $18.3 million a year earlier.

Adjusted EBITDA is a key metric for a REIT as it reflects the ability to generate cash flow to pay dividends. Growth of just 0.9% amid cost inflation means the company is not yet fully translating revenue growth into profit. However, management expects Adjusted EBITDA to grow 2.0% for the full year.

Importantly, the margin remains very high – above 65%. This is typical of the tower business with high operating efficiency. A 1.2 percentage point decline does not change the picture dramatically but warrants monitoring.

Free cash flow rose 0.2% to $986 million on lower capex

Operating cash flow in the third quarter was $1,392.8 million, down 4.6% year on year. However, capital expenditures fell 14.6% to $407 million, including $9.1 million of finance lease payments. As a result, free cash flow rose 0.2% to $986 million.

The capex decline reflects investment discipline. The company confirmed its full-year capex guidance of $1,765–1,875 million, including $695 million for data center development. This means capital expenditures may rise in the fourth quarter, putting pressure on free cash flow.

Nevertheless, the ability to generate almost $1 billion of free cash flow per quarter amid high leverage is an important support for the dividend. AFFO per share was $2.87, up 3.2% year on year.

Net debt fell $7.5 billion over the quarter to $35.7 billion

Net debt as of September 30, 2026 was $35.7 billion. Compared with June 30, 2026, it decreased by $7.5 billion. Over the year, from September 30, 2025, net debt increased by $0.4 billion. The quarterly decline is due to debt repayment and refinancing: in September the company repaid $600 million at 1.450% and issued new notes for $1.6 billion.

The net debt / adjusted EBITDA ratio for the quarter is 4.9x. This is a moderate level for an infrastructure REIT, though higher than some peers. The company has significant liquidity – $10.6 billion, including $1.9 billion of cash and $8.7 billion available under credit facilities.

The quarterly debt reduction is a positive signal, but the annual dynamics show that debt remains stable. For the investor, it is important that the company refinances debt amid rising rates, which could increase interest expenses in the future.

The $1.79 per share dividend grew 5.3% and yields about 4%

For the third quarter of 2026, the company declared a dividend of $1.79 per share, up 5.3% year on year. Total dividends amounted to $831 million. At the current share price, the dividend yield is about 4%. This is above the average yield in recent years and competitive compared to the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries.

Our estimate for the 2026 dividend is about $7.16 per share, based on four quarterly payments. This corresponds to a payout ratio of about 65% of AFFO per share, which the company forecasts at $11.04–11.16. This payout level is sustainable and leaves room for growth.

The risk of a dividend cut is linked to a possible slowdown in AFFO growth, for example, due to rising interest expenses or slower organic growth. However, current free cash flow and the AFFO forecast support the dividend. The company is also actively buying back shares: $315 million during the quarter, and after the reporting date the board authorized an additional $2.0 billion buyback.

The company raised its 2026 outlook for the third time, mainly on data centers

American Tower raised its 2026 property revenue guidance by $55 million at the midpoint to $10,785–10,865 million. This is the third upward revision this year. The main reason is the outperformance of the data center segment, whose revenue is forecast to grow 16.1% to $1,218–1,228 million. Adjusted EBITDA guidance remained unchanged at $7,248–7,303 million.

Net income and earnings per share guidance was lowered by $30 million due to unrealized losses on equity investments. AFFO per share guidance was raised by $0.02 to $11.04–11.16. This reflects management's confidence in cash flow.

The guidance raise is a positive signal, but it should be noted that growth is mainly driven by data centers, not the core tower business. Organic tenant billings growth in the U.S. & Canada is expected at about 0.5%, close to zero. This limits long-term growth potential.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

American Tower delivered stable operating results: revenue grew 2.5%, adjusted EBITDA rose 0.9%, and free cash flow remained around $1 billion. The 14.4% net income decline was caused by paper investment losses and does not reflect a deterioration in the business. The company reduced net debt by $7.5 billion over the quarter and raised its full-year guidance. The $1.79 per share dividend with a yield of about 4% looks sustainable. The question for the holder is the ability to accelerate organic growth, which is currently just 1.1%.

On 27 October BXP reported results for the third quarter of 2026. Revenue came in at $911.4 million, up 4.6% year on year versus 3.1% a quarter earlier, and net income reached $114.5 million at a 12.6% margin against a loss a year earlier. The acceleration is real, but profit was supported by property sales and a swing in investment marks rather than by rental flow; with $16.6 billion of debt and a 4.6% dividend yield, the share looks neutral – growth is there, but it does not yet convert into sustainable earnings.

Key takeaways

— Revenue accelerated to +4.6% on rent, not on one-off items

— The $114.5 million profit is half assembled from property sales and investment revaluation

— The 12.6% margin against a loss a year earlier is a base reversal, not a rise in rental profitability

— Debt rose to $16.6 billion, and interest expense eats $159.1 million a quarter

— The $0.70 quarterly dividend is covered by distributable flow only at 76%

— Occupancy of 89.4% and leased 91.9% are the main argument for the durability of rental flow

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue accelerated to +4.6% on rent, not on one-off items

Third-quarter 2026 revenue came in at $911.4 million, up 4.6% year on year versus 3.1% in the second quarter. An acceleration of 1.5 percentage points is rare for a rental business, where growth is usually measured in tenths. Rent provided the main contribution: $846.2 million of the total, with the rest from parking, hotel and management services.

The driver is visible in the structure: rental revenue grew against the prior year, not one-off items. Occupancy in in-service properties rose to 89.4% from 88.4% a quarter earlier, and leased space to 91.9% from 91.3%. That means the revenue acceleration is supported by physical absorption, not only by rent indexation.

For a rental REIT such a pace signals that demand for premier offices across six gateway markets is recovering. But quarterly growth of 4.6% is still below what is needed to cover the cost of capital at the current debt load. The durability of the acceleration will be tested next quarter: if occupancy keeps rising, revenue should hold the pace.

The $114.5 million profit is half assembled from property sales and investment revaluation

Net income for the quarter was $114.5 million, or $0.71 per diluted share. Inside it, property sales brought $10.4 million, revaluation of securities added $0.7 million, and an unrealised gain on non-real-estate investments contributed $0.4 million. Without these items profit would have been noticeably thinner.

The sale closed on 5 August 2026: the company disposed of its leasehold interest in Sumner Square in Washington, DC. A quarter earlier an impairment of $18.0 million had been recognised on that property, and now it has left the base. This is classic capital recycling, not an operating result, and next quarter such support may be absent.

Earnings per share of $0.71 against $0.43 a quarter earlier looks like a strong improvement, but the comparison is distorted by one-offs. For durability, FFO matters more – $302.2 million, or $1.89 per share – which excludes sales and revaluations. It is FFO, not net income, that reflects a REIT's ability to pay dividends.

The 12.6% margin against a loss a year earlier is a base reversal, not a rise in rental profitability

The net margin in the third quarter of 2026 was 12.6% against minus 14.0% a year earlier. The reversal is explained not by rising operating efficiency but by the comparison base: a year ago the quarter closed with a loss due to a $68.9 million impairment. Now there is no impairment, and profit has returned to positive territory.

Operating margin [(rental revenue – rental expense) / rental revenue] rose to 62.1% from 61.3% a quarter earlier. That is a modest improvement, and it reflects control over operating costs rather than pricing power. Real estate taxes and operating expenses stayed almost flat against the prior quarter – $192.3 million and $142.0 million respectively.

General and administrative expenses fell to $37.6 million from $50.4 million a quarter earlier, but part of the drop is a reversal of compensation items, not headcount reduction. Margin durability will depend on whether occupancy holds above 89% and whether impairment charges return at the next portfolio rotation.

Debt rose to $16.6 billion, and interest expense eats $159.1 million a quarter

Consolidated debt at the end of the third quarter of 2026 was $16.6 billion against $15.6 billion a quarter earlier. The $1.0 billion increase was funded partly by a $247.0 million draw on the credit line and a senior notes issuance. Net debt on the latest annual balance sheet is $2.8 billion, but that is a different basis and cannot be mixed with the quarterly figure.

Interest expense for the quarter was $159.1 million, which against revenue of $911.4 million is about 17% of revenue. The interest coverage ratio is 2.98 excluding capitalised interest and 2.73 including it. That is below what is comfortable for a BBB-rated REIT and leaves little room to manoeuvre if rates rise.

The ratio of net debt to EBITDA re on a share basis is 7.52 against 7.94 a quarter earlier. The ratio fell while absolute debt rose because EBITDA re grew, not because borrowings shrank. For a holder this means leverage remains high, and any slowdown in rental flow would quickly show up in interest coverage.

The $0.70 quarterly dividend is covered by distributable flow only at 76%

For the third quarter of 2026 BXP paid a dividend of $0.70 per share, or $2.80 annualised. At the quarter-end price of $61.11 the yield is 4.6%. That is above most REITs but not above the policy rate, and the risk premium here is modest.

Dividend coverage by funds available for distribution (FAD) is 76.11% against 87.54% a quarter earlier. FAD was $163.4 million against distributions of $124.4 million. Coverage improved on higher FAD, but part of that increase is non-cash items, including straight-line rent of $46.5 million.

Our estimate for the 2026 dividend is $2.80 per share, i.e. maintenance of the current quarterly level. It rests on FAD coverage and on the absence of large one-off write-downs. If FAD falls below $150 million a quarter or interest expense rises, the payout ratio would approach 90%, and the board could revise the pace of increases.

Occupancy of 89.4% and leased 91.9% are the main argument for the durability of rental flow

Occupancy in in-service properties rose to 89.4% from 88.4% a quarter earlier, and leased space to 91.9% from 91.3%. The 2.5 percentage point gap between the two means part of signed leases has not yet begun to generate revenue. That is a growth reserve for coming quarters.

The portfolio totals 162 properties and 50.6 million square feet, including six under construction or redevelopment. Concentration in six gateway markets – Boston, Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco, Seattle and Washington, DC – supports demand but also ties the company to the fortunes of those cities.

Growth in leased space matters more than one-off profit items: it determines whether revenue holds above $900 million a quarter. If the gap between leased and occupied space closes, revenue gets an additional push without new property investment.

Bottom line

The strong side of the quarter was revenue: $911.4 million and acceleration to 4.6% year on year, supported by occupancy rising to 89.4%. The weak side was earnings quality: $114.5 million is half assembled from the Sumner Square sale and investment revaluation, and the 12.6% margin reflects a base reversal rather than rising profitability. Debt rose to $16.6 billion, and interest coverage of 2.98 is below a comfortable level. The $0.70 quarterly dividend is covered at 76.11%, and that is the main argument for holding the share in the portfolio. The verdict is neutral: revenue acceleration is there, but it does not yet convert into sustainable earnings, and leverage limits room for dividend growth.

The report for the third quarter of 2026, ended 30 September, showed net profit of 247.759 million dollars, up 49.3% year on year. Revenue barely moved: in the prior quarter it grew 3.9% year on year against 4.4% a quarter earlier, a deceleration. The profit gain came from costs rather than the business, and with debt at 13,091.7 million dollars at the end of 2025 the share looks neutral on attractiveness at the current price.

Key takeaways

— Net profit rose 49.3% while revenue barely moved

— Revenue growth decelerated to 3.9% in the prior quarter from 4.4% a quarter earlier

— Debt of 13,091.7 million dollars at the end of 2025 absorbs almost all the profit

— A return on equity of 7.9% does not justify the debt load

— The share sits in the US REITs (high yield) model strategy – a fact, not an argument

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Net profit rose 49.3% while revenue barely moved

In the third quarter of 2026 net profit was 247.759 million dollars, up 49.3% from the same quarter a year earlier. Revenue for the same period is not disclosed in the facts, but the prior quarters show it growing only a few percent a year.

Such a gap between profit and revenue means profit grew through lower costs, not higher sales. That is a one-off lever: costs can be cut once, but not indefinitely.

For a holder this means the quality of the profit is lower than the headline suggests. Sustainable profit growth requires revenue growth, and that is not there yet.

Revenue growth decelerated to 3.9% in the prior quarter from 4.4% a quarter earlier

In the second quarter of 2026 revenue grew 3.9% year on year, while in the first quarter the rate was 4.4%. That is a deceleration, not an acceleration.

The slowdown comes on top of already slow growth: in the third quarter of 2025 the rate was 4.1%, in the fourth 4.3%. The company is not speeding up but losing even the modest rates it had.

If the deceleration continues, next year's profit will hit the absence of revenue growth, and there will be no costs left to cut.

Debt of 13,091.7 million dollars at the end of 2025 absorbs almost all the profit

Net debt at the end of 2025 was 13,091.7 million dollars. That is 53 times the quarterly profit of 247.759 million dollars.

With such a load, interest on the debt absorbs a significant part of operating profit. The company has to direct money to servicing debt rather than development.

Debt reduction is the main factor that could change the assessment of the share. Until debt starts to fall, profit will remain under pressure.

A return on equity of 7.9% does not justify the debt load

Return on equity is 7.9%. That is below the return an investor could get on risk-free instruments and clearly does not compensate for the debt risk.

With debt of 13,091.7 million dollars and a return on equity below 8%, the company is inefficient: each dollar of capital brings less than it costs to service.

To raise the return, either profit must rise or capital must shrink. The first requires revenue growth, and the second is not visible yet.

The share sits in the US REITs (high yield) model strategy – a fact, not an argument

The share is included in the US REITs (high yield) model strategy on the portal. That is a fact, not an argument for the assessment.

Inclusion in the strategy means only that the share passed the strategy's screens, not that it is attractive on fundamentals.

For an investor this is a signal to assess independently whether the current yield and risk match their goals.

Bottom line

The strong side of the report is the 49.3% rise in net profit, but it was achieved through cost cuts, not through the business. Revenue is growing slowly and decelerating: 3.9% in the second quarter against 4.4% in the first. Debt of 13,091.7 million dollars and a return on equity of 7.9% do not make the share attractive. The verdict is neutral: the arguments for and against balance out, but growth needs either a revenue turnaround or debt reduction.

On 27 October Coca-Cola reported third-quarter 2026 results. Revenue rose 7.4% year on year to $13,380 million, operating profit to $4,465 million and net profit to $4,009 million (+8.5%). Growth accelerated from +6.7% in the second quarter, but the net margin added only 0.3 pp to 30.0% as the tax rate rose from 12.0% to 16.1%. The share trades at 26.3 EV/EBITDA against its own three-year average of 24.4, the dividend yield is 2.3%, and the portal model puts upside to fair value at just +5% – on that valuation the stock looks neutral.

Key takeaways

— Revenue accelerated to +7.4% on volume and concentrate, not on price

— Operating margin rose to 33.4%, but taxes and a smaller minority share absorbed part of the effect

— Latin America delivered a quarter of revenue and almost all of the profit growth

— Nine-month free cash flow reached $11.4 billion and guidance was raised to $13.0 billion

— Dividend yield of 2.3% against $6.8 billion paid in nine months

— EV/EBITDA of 26.3 is 8% above its own three-year average of 24.4

— Leverage of 2.16 EBITDA LTM is moderate, but 2027 guidance flags an 8% divestiture headwind

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue accelerated to +7.4% on volume and concentrate, not on price

Third-quarter 2026 revenue reached $13,380 million, up 7.4% year on year. That is an acceleration from 6.7% in the second quarter. Organic revenue grew the same 7%, so acquisitions and divestitures netted to zero, while currency added 1%.

Volume was the driver: concentrate sales rose 7% while price/mix added only 1%. Concentrate sales ran 2 pp ahead of unit case volume on shipment timing. Unit case volume grew 5%, led by India, China, Mexico and Brazil.

By segment, Latin America grew fastest at 25% in dollars, of which 9% was currency and 7% price. North America added 3% on flat volume, Asia Pacific 4%, EMEA 4%, and Bottling Investments 13%.

For the shareholder the key point is that growth rests on volume rather than pricing. That is more durable but monetises more slowly – with price up only 1%, revenue tracks volume and operating leverage works less.

Operating margin rose to 33.4%, but taxes and a smaller minority share absorbed part of the effect

Operating profit rose 12% to $4,465 million, lifting the operating margin to 33.4% from 32.0%. The comparable margin was 32.9% against 31.9%. Organic revenue growth and currency tailwinds drove the expansion, partly offset by higher marketing and operating expenses.

Cost of goods sold rose 3%, slower than revenue, which was the main margin contributor. SG&A rose 10%, faster than revenue, and is the main constraint. Other operating charges fell 83% to $10 million.

Less reaches net profit: it rose 8.5% to $4,009 million even though operating profit added 12%. Taxes rose 56% to $777 million, lifting the effective rate from 12.0% to 16.1%. The minority interest turned positive at $47 million from minus $13 million a year earlier.

The net margin barely moved – 30.0% against 29.7%. Operating leverage worked, but only a small part reached the shareholder: the gap between +12% operating and +8.5% net profit is taxes and minorities, not the business.

Latin America delivered a quarter of revenue and almost all of the profit growth

Latin America delivered $1,958 million of revenue, up 25%, and $1,152 million of operating profit, up 29%. That is the best segment result and the main source of group profit growth. Volume rose 6%, price/mix 7% and currency added 9%.

North America, the largest market, produced $5,386 million of revenue (+3%) and $1,766 million of operating profit (+5%). Volume was flat: Trademark Coca-Cola growth offset declines in water, sports, coffee and tea. Price added only 1%.

Bottling Investments grew operating profit 261% to $205 million – a small absolute but a visible contribution. Asia Pacific added 8% operating profit on +4% revenue, EMEA 7% on +4%.

The concentration of growth in one region is a durability risk. Latin America carried the quarter on currency and price, while flat-volume North America shows how hard growth is on mature markets.

Nine-month free cash flow reached $11.4 billion and guidance was raised to $13.0 billion

Nine-month 2026 operating cash flow was $12,471 million against $3,652 million a year earlier, with free cash flow of $11.4 billion. The gap is working capital: last year the change in operating assets and liabilities was an $8,040 million outflow, now $498 million.

Nine-month capex was $1,063 million, below last year's $1,230 million. The company raised 2026 free cash flow guidance to at least $13.0 billion, from at least $15.2 billion of operating cash and about $2.2 billion of capex. The prior guide was $12.4 billion.

The balance sheet carries $36,623 million of long-term debt and $4,923 million of current maturities against $13,454 million of cash. Net debt on the latest annual balance sheet was $35,122 million, or 2.16 EBITDA LTM. Quarterly interest expense fell 9% to $354 million.

Cash flow is the strong part of the report: it grew on working-capital normalisation rather than one-off sales. That also means last year's base was distorted, and the durability of the flow will only be confirmed in the fourth quarter.

Dividend yield of 2.3% against $6.8 billion paid in nine months

Nine-month 2026 dividends paid were $6,842 million against $4,391 million a year earlier. A 56% rise in payouts against 14% nine-month net profit growth means the payout ratio rose. The company does not disclose the full-year figure, but the pace clearly outruns profit.

The trailing twelve-month dividend yield is 2.3%. That is modest for a consumer name and below the yield we consider fair for this growth story. At the pre-release close of $92.70 and LTM net profit of $14,629 million, the LTM P/E is 26.8.

Our estimate: at the current payout pace and LTM profit, the annual dividend stays near its present level, and its growth is capped by the payout ratio. The key is whether free cash flow holds at $13.0 billion – that, not accounting profit, funds the payout.

A weaker fourth-quarter free cash flow or large acquisitions could reduce the payout. 2027 guidance already embeds an 8% divestiture headwind to comparable revenue, which limits the base for dividend growth.

EV/EBITDA of 26.3 is 8% above its own three-year average of 24.4

LTM EV/EBITDA is 26.3 against its own three-year average of 24.4 – 8% above. The share is more expensive than its own recent history. LTM P/E is 26.8 and market capitalisation is $392,221 million.

The portal model puts upside to fair value at +5%. The model weighs EBITDA growth against the target multiple and market cap. This is our own estimate, not a market consensus or a target price.

The market reaction was muted: the share lost 1.6% on the release day and has stayed there. Revenue growth and the raised guidance did not outweigh margin and tax concerns.

A multiple above its own history with modest model upside means further gains require faster profit growth, not just revenue. While net profit grows slower than operating profit, the multiple is unlikely to compress.

Leverage of 2.16 EBITDA LTM is moderate, but 2027 guidance flags an 8% divestiture headwind

Net debt on the latest annual balance sheet was $35,122 million, or 2.16 EBITDA LTM. That is moderate for a company with this cash flow. We do not assess the direction of the ratio: no earlier value is in the facts.

The company raised 2026 organic revenue guidance to at least 5% growth and comparable EPS to at least 11%. Free cash flow guidance is at least $13.0 billion. That is the main positive of the report.

However, 2027 guidance already embeds an 8% divestiture headwind to comparable revenue and a slight currency headwind. The company will only give full 2027 guidance with the fourth-quarter report. That limits visibility.

The fourth quarter of 2026 will be six days shorter than a year earlier, which mechanically pressures the revenue comparison. Watch whether the operating margin holds above 33% in the shorter quarter and whether net profit grows faster than operating profit.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The strong part is revenue acceleration to +7.4% on volume and the raised free cash flow guidance of $13.0 billion. The weak part is that only +8.5% of net profit reached the shareholder: taxes and minorities absorbed the gap to +12% operating profit. The 2.3% dividend yield is modest and EV/EBITDA of 26.3 is above its own three-year average of 24.4. The portal model shows +5% upside, and on that valuation the stock looks neutral: further gains need faster profit growth, not just revenue.