| Year | Strat | S&P 500 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026* | -0.8% | +8.3% | -9.1% |
| 2025 | +29.6% | +16.4% | +13.2% |
| 2024 | +37.6% | +23.5% | +14.1% |
| 2023 | +58.3% | +24.2% | +34.1% |
| 2022 | -17.1% | -19.7% | +2.6% |
| 2021 | +30.6% | +27.4% | +3.3% |
| 2020 | +14.2% | +16.2% | -2.0% |
| 2019* | +9.9% | +0.3% | +9.6% |
S&P 500 non-financials, point-in-time. Take the largest by market cap, keep those with strong fundamental value-creation (FVC) and best-in-4-years EBITDA, rank by FVC and hold the top 15 equal-weight, rebalanced monthly. Total return.
| Period | Strategy | S&P 500 | vs index |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day | -0.2% | +0.0% | -0.2% |
| Week | -1.7% | -1.0% | -0.7% |
| YTD | -1.0% | +9.4% | -10.4% |
| # | Holding | Weight | Day | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DELL value-creation/FVC +81%; EV/EBITDA 14.7x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 6.7% | -10.4% | 81% |
| 2 | MU value-creation/FVC +60%; EV/EBITDA 26.3x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 6.7% | -10.9% | 60% |
| 3 | TMUS value-creation/FVC +53%; EV/EBITDA 6.6x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 6.7% | +1.3% | 53% |
| 4 | PEP value-creation/FVC +50%; EV/EBITDA 13.3x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 6.7% | +4.6% | 50% |
| 5 | AMGN value-creation/FVC +43%; EV/EBITDA 10.1x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 6.7% | +5.8% | 43% |
| 6 | ORCL value-creation/FVC +37%; EV/EBITDA 13.1x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 6.7% | +4.3% | 37% |
| 7 | LLY value-creation/FVC +35%; EV/EBITDA 34.0x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 6.7% | +2.1% | 35% |
| 8 | NVDA value-creation/FVC +32%; EV/EBITDA 26.7x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 6.7% | -4.8% | 32% |
| 9 | AVGO value-creation/FVC +31%; EV/EBITDA 43.1x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 6.7% | -0.3% | 31% |
| 10 | V value-creation/FVC +28%; EV/EBITDA 28.1x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 6.7% | +1.1% | 28% |
| 11 | ABBV value-creation/FVC +28%; EV/EBITDA 29.2x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 6.7% | +2.4% | 28% |
| 12 | MA value-creation/FVC +24%; EV/EBITDA 33.0x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 6.7% | +6.1% | 24% |
| 13 | META value-creation/FVC +23%; EV/EBITDA 14.7x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 6.7% | -0.3% | 23% |
| 14 | ADI value-creation/FVC +23%; EV/EBITDA 31.5x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 6.7% | -3.8% | 23% |
| 15 | TJX value-creation/FVC +21%; EV/EBITDA 21.6x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 6.7% | — | 21% |
| Rebalance | Signal | Holding | Price (USD) | Weight | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | Buy | TJX TJX Cos value-creation/FVC +21%; EV/EBITDA 21.6x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 160.80 | 6.7% | — |
| Sell | AMZN Amazon dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 19%) | 230.86 | — | -0.5% | |
| 26 Jul 2026 – 28 Jul 2026 | no change (3 rebalances) | ||||
| 25 Jul 2026 | Buy | AMZN Amazon value-creation/FVC +19%; EV/EBITDA 21.5x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 232.11 | 6.7% | — |
| Sell | APH Amphenol dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 32%) | 152.67 | — | -3.6% | |
| 22 Jul 2026 – 24 Jul 2026 | no change (3 rebalances) | ||||
| 21 Jul 2026 | Buy | DELL Dell Technologies Inc. value-creation/FVC +82%; EV/EBITDA 14.4x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 404.15 | 6.7% | — |
| Buy | TMUS T-Mobile US, Inc. value-creation/FVC +50%; EV/EBITDA 7.1x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 190.77 | 6.7% | — | |
| Buy | AMGN Amgen value-creation/FVC +45%; EV/EBITDA 9.5x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 366.24 | 6.7% | — | |
| Buy | LLY ELI LILLY & Co value-creation/FVC +37%; EV/EBITDA 32.0x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 1 175 | 6.7% | — | |
| Buy | ORCL Oracle value-creation/FVC +37%; EV/EBITDA 13.2x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 127.05 | 6.7% | — | |
| Buy | AVGO Broadcom Inc. value-creation/FVC +31%; EV/EBITDA 42.8x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 386.50 | 6.7% | — | |
| Buy | ABBV AbbVie Inc. value-creation/FVC +28%; EV/EBITDA 28.2x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 256.10 | 6.7% | — | |
| Buy | V Visa value-creation/FVC +28%; EV/EBITDA 27.6x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 355.82 | 6.7% | — | |
| Buy | MA Mastercard Inc value-creation/FVC +25%; EV/EBITDA 32.1x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 538.30 | 6.7% | — | |
| Buy | ADI Analog Devices value-creation/FVC +22%; EV/EBITDA 32.0x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 382.81 | 6.7% | — | |
| Buy | META Meta Platforms, Inc. value-creation/FVC +22%; EV/EBITDA 16.0x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 643.81 | 6.7% | — | |
| Sell | MSFT Microsoft dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 18%) | 397.75 | — | -0.5% | |
| Sell | IBM International Business Machine dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 18%) | 210.50 | — | -21.7% | |
| Sell | AMZN Amazon dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 15%) | 247.55 | — | +0.6% | |
| 3 Jul 2026 – 20 Jul 2026 | no change (17 rebalances) | ||||
| 2 Jul 2026 | Buy | PEP PepsiCo value-creation/FVC +29%; EV/EBITDA 15.0x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 144.22 | 14.3% | — |
| 1 Jul 2026 | no change | ||||
| 30 Jun 2026 | Sell | PEP PepsiCo dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 29%) | 135.40 | — | -7.4% |
| 27 Jun 2026 – 29 Jun 2026 | no change (3 rebalances) | ||||
| 26 Jun 2026 | Buy | MU Micron Technology value-creation/FVC +44%; EV/EBITDA 38.9x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 1 132 | 14.3% | — |
| 16 Jun 2026 – 25 Jun 2026 | no change (10 rebalances) | ||||
| 15 Jun 2026 initial book | Buy | APH Amphenol value-creation/FVC +33%; EV/EBITDA 27.8x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 158.38 | 16.7% | — |
| Buy | PEP PepsiCo value-creation/FVC +29%; EV/EBITDA 15.3x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 146.25 | 16.7% | — | |
| Buy | NVDA NVIDIA value-creation/FVC +26%; EV/EBITDA 37.9x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 212.45 | 16.7% | — | |
| Buy | MSFT Microsoft value-creation/FVC +18%; EV/EBITDA 15.9x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 399.76 | 16.7% | — | |
| Buy | IBM International Business Machine value-creation/FVC +16%; EV/EBITDA 19.2x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 268.71 | 16.7% | — | |
| Buy | AMZN Amazon value-creation/FVC +15%; EV/EBITDA 16.8x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 246.02 | 16.7% | — | |
Prices are the frozen close on the signal date — the price at which the live paper-book starts (buy) or stops (sell) holding the position. Sell result is the price change from the position's own buy signal, dividends not included.