| Year | Strat | S&P 500 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026* | +3.6% | +11.7% | -8.1% |
| 2025 | +29.6% | +16.4% | +13.2% |
| 2024 | +37.6% | +23.5% | +14.1% |
| 2023 | +58.3% | +24.2% | +34.1% |
| 2022 | -17.1% | -19.7% | +2.6% |
| 2021 | +30.6% | +27.4% | +3.2% |
| 2020 | +14.2% | +16.2% | -2.0% |
| 2019* | +9.9% | +0.3% | +9.6% |
S&P 500 non-financials, point-in-time. Take the largest by market cap, keep those with strong fundamental value-creation (FVC) and best-in-4-years EBITDA, rank by FVC and hold the top 15 equal-weight, rebalanced monthly. Total return.
| Period | Strategy | S&P 500 | vs index |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day | +1.3% | +0.9% | +0.4% |
| Week | +0.4% | -0.8% | +1.1% |
| Month | -0.7% | -1.8% | +1.1% |
| YTD | +4.9% | +12.8% | -7.9% |
Track before 15 Jun 2026 comes from the earlier book run since Aug 2019; from that date the portfolio below is what the model holds.
| # | Holding | Weight | Day | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MU value-creation/FVC +76%; EV/EBITDA 16.8x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 7.7% | -0.2% | 76% |
| 2 | TMUS value-creation/FVC +66%; EV/EBITDA 6.2x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 7.7% | +2.9% | 66% |
| 3 | DELL value-creation/FVC +57%; EV/EBITDA 17.1x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 7.7% | +12.0% | 57% |
| 4 | PEP value-creation/FVC +51%; EV/EBITDA 12.8x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 7.7% | -0.2% | 51% |
| 5 | DIS value-creation/FVC +36%; EV/EBITDA 10.5x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 7.7% | +0.7% | 36% |
| 6 | ORCL value-creation/FVC +32%; EV/EBITDA 15.9x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 7.7% | -1.7% | 32% |
| 7 | UNH value-creation/FVC +32%; EV/EBITDA 26.7x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 7.7% | -2.4% | 32% |
| 8 | NVDA value-creation/FVC +31%; EV/EBITDA 26.8x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 7.7% | -0.0% | 31% |
| 9 | AVGO value-creation/FVC +21%; EV/EBITDA 54.7x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 7.7% | +0.3% | 21% |
| 10 | HD value-creation/FVC +21%; EV/EBITDA 15.0x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 7.7% | +1.0% | 21% |
| 11 | GOOG value-creation/FVC +17%; EV/EBITDA 24.8x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 7.7% | +1.5% | 17% |
| 12 | V value-creation/FVC +17%; EV/EBITDA 35.7x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 7.7% | +0.9% | 17% |
| 13 | AMZN value-creation/FVC +14%; EV/EBITDA 33.0x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 7.7% | +1.9% | 14% |
| Rebalance | Signal | Holding | Price (USD) | Weight | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep 2026 | Buy | HD Home Depot value-creation/FVC +21%; EV/EBITDA 15.0x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 308.74 | 7.7% | — |
| Buy | AMZN Amazon value-creation/FVC +14%; EV/EBITDA 33.0x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 256.78 | 7.7% | — | |
| 21 Aug 2026 | Buy | DIS Walt Disney Co value-creation/FVC +36%; EV/EBITDA 10.7x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 107.78 | 9.1% | — |
| Buy | GOOG Alphabet value-creation/FVC +17%; EV/EBITDA 25.4x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 341.75 | 9.1% | — | |
| Sell | LLY ELI LILLY & Co dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 38%) | 1 255 | — | +6.8% | |
| Sell | ADI Analog Devices dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 22%) | 374.14 | — | -2.3% | |
| Sell | APH Amphenol dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 15%) | 157.25 | — | -2.1% | |
| Sell | MA Mastercard Inc dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 14%) | 580.63 | — | +7.9% | |
| 5 Aug 2026 | Buy | UNH United Health value-creation/FVC +31%; EV/EBITDA 28.0x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 412.75 | 7.7% | — |
| Sell | AMGN Amgen dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 43%) | 407.83 | — | +11.4% | |
| Sell | ABBV AbbVie Inc. dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 28%) | 246.20 | — | -3.9% | |
| Sell | META Meta Platforms, Inc. dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 24%) | 588.77 | — | -8.5% | |
| 31 Jul 2026 | Buy | APH Amphenol value-creation/FVC +32%; EV/EBITDA 26.0x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 160.70 | 6.7% | — |
| Sell | AMZN Amazon dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 19%) | 271.58 | — | +17.0% | |
| 25 Jul 2026 | Buy | AMZN Amazon value-creation/FVC +19%; EV/EBITDA 21.5x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 232.11 | 6.7% | — |
| Sell | APH Amphenol dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 33%) | 152.67 | — | -3.6% | |
| 21 Jul 2026 | Buy | DELL Dell Technologies Inc. value-creation/FVC +82%; EV/EBITDA 14.4x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 404.15 | 6.7% | — |
| Buy | TMUS T-Mobile US, Inc. value-creation/FVC +50%; EV/EBITDA 7.1x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 190.77 | 6.7% | — | |
| Buy | AMGN Amgen value-creation/FVC +45%; EV/EBITDA 9.5x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 366.24 | 6.7% | — | |
| Buy | LLY ELI LILLY & Co value-creation/FVC +37%; EV/EBITDA 32.0x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 1 175 | 6.7% | — | |
| Buy | ORCL Oracle value-creation/FVC +37%; EV/EBITDA 13.2x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 127.05 | 6.7% | — | |
| Buy | AVGO Broadcom Inc. value-creation/FVC +31%; EV/EBITDA 42.8x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 386.50 | 6.7% | — | |
| Buy | ABBV AbbVie Inc. value-creation/FVC +28%; EV/EBITDA 28.2x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 256.10 | 6.7% | — | |
| Buy | V Visa value-creation/FVC +28%; EV/EBITDA 27.6x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 355.82 | 6.7% | — | |
| Buy | MA Mastercard Inc value-creation/FVC +25%; EV/EBITDA 32.1x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 538.30 | 6.7% | — | |
| Buy | ADI Analog Devices value-creation/FVC +22%; EV/EBITDA 32.0x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 382.81 | 6.7% | — | |
| Buy | META Meta Platforms, Inc. value-creation/FVC +22%; EV/EBITDA 16.0x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 643.81 | 6.7% | — | |
| Sell | MSFT Microsoft dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 19%) | 397.75 | — | -0.5% | |
| Sell | IBM International Business Machine dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 16%) | 210.50 | — | -21.7% | |
| Sell | AMZN Amazon dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 15%) | 247.55 | — | +0.6% | |
| 26 Jun 2026 | Buy | MU Micron Technology value-creation/FVC +44%; EV/EBITDA 38.9x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 1 132 | 14.3% | — |
| 15 Jun 2026 initial book | Buy | APH Amphenol value-creation/FVC +33%; EV/EBITDA 27.8x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 158.38 | 16.7% | — |
| Buy | PEP PepsiCo value-creation/FVC +29%; EV/EBITDA 15.3x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 146.25 | 16.7% | — | |
| Buy | NVDA NVIDIA value-creation/FVC +26%; EV/EBITDA 37.9x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 212.45 | 16.7% | — | |
| Buy | MSFT Microsoft value-creation/FVC +18%; EV/EBITDA 15.9x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 399.76 | 16.7% | — | |
| Buy | IBM International Business Machine value-creation/FVC +16%; EV/EBITDA 19.2x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 268.71 | 16.7% | — | |
| Buy | AMZN Amazon value-creation/FVC +15%; EV/EBITDA 16.8x; best-in-4yr EBITDA. | 246.02 | 16.7% | — |
Prices are the frozen close on the signal date — the price at which the live paper-book starts (buy) or stops (sell) holding the position. Sell result is the price change from the position's own buy signal, dividends not included.