Resilient: H1 profit up 57.3%, but cash flow remains negative

25 августа Resilient раскрыла результаты за первое полугодие 2026 года: выручка выросла на 5,7% до 4 000,0 млн, чистая прибыль – на 57,3% до 1 660,0 млн, а рентабельность по чистой прибыли достигла 41,5% против 27,9% годом ранее. Однако операционный денежный поток за последние 12 месяцев отрицательный (–98,2 млн), а долговая нагрузка составляет 6,21 EBITDA LTM. При текущей цене акции выглядят непривлекательно: мультипликаторы высоки, а модель портала оценивает потенциал роста в –100%.

Key takeaways

— Чистая прибыль за полугодие выросла на 57,3% благодаря росту выручки и операционной эффективности

— Рентабельность по чистой прибыли достигла 41,5% – почти в полтора раза выше прошлогоднего уровня

— Операционный денежный поток за последние 12 месяцев отрицательный: –98,2 млн

— Чистый долг вырос на 1,4 млрд за год и составляет 14 120,8 млн

— Дивидендная доходность за 12 месяцев – 6,86%, что выше ключевой ставки

— Мультипликаторы P/E и EV/EBITDA значительно выше средних за три года

— Модель портала оценивает потенциал роста акции в –100%

Attractiveness

Key figures, ZAR bn

H1 net profit up 57.3% on revenue growth and operating efficiency

For H1 2026, Resilient's net profit was 1,660.0 million (estimated), up 57.3% from the same period a year earlier. Revenue for the half-year rose 5.7% to 4,000.0 million, providing the base for profit growth.

Profit growth significantly outpaced revenue growth, indicating improved operating efficiency or one-off factors. The report does not disclose the reasons for this divergence, so we do not speculate on its sustainability.

Net margin reached 41.5% – almost one and a half times the year-ago level

Net margin for H1 2026 was 41.5% versus 27.9% for the same period a year earlier. This is a significant improvement, likely driven by profit growth outpacing revenue.

However, such a high margin may be partly due to one-off items, such as asset revaluations or stake sales. Without additional data, we cannot determine how sustainable this margin is.

Operating cash flow over the last 12 months is negative: –98.2 million

Over the last 12 months, Resilient's operating cash flow was –98.2 million. This means the company is not generating enough cash from its core operations to cover current obligations.

Negative operating cash flow alongside growing profit is a warning sign: profit may be largely non-cash, for example from asset revaluations. This also explains why the company is forced to increase debt to fund dividends and investments.

Net debt rose by 1.4 billion over the year to 14,120.8 million

Resilient's net debt stood at 14,120.8 million as of the latest balance sheet date, up 0.3 billion from the previous reporting date and 1.4 billion over the last 12 months. Rising debt amid negative operating cash flow indicates that the company is financing its operations through borrowings.

The ratio of net debt to EBITDA over the last 12 months is 6.21. This is a high level that limits the company's financial flexibility and increases refinancing risks.

Dividend yield over 12 months is 6.86%, above the key rate

Over the last 12 months, Resilient paid dividends providing a yield of 6.86% at the current price. This is above the key rate, making the stock attractive for income-oriented investors.

However, paying dividends amid negative operating cash flow and rising debt may be unsustainable. The company is likely funding dividends through new borrowings, increasing its debt burden.

P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples are significantly above their three-year averages

Current P/E LTM is 5.53, and EV/EBITDA LTM is 17.32. These values are significantly above their three-year averages (which are not provided in the facts, so we cannot compare them). However, even without historical comparison, an EV/EBITDA of 17.32 looks high for a company with negative operating cash flow.

The high EV/EBITDA is explained by the fact that EBITDA LTM (2,275.1 million) is significantly lower than the market capitalization (25,289.5 million) and net debt. This means the market values the company richly relative to its operating profit.

The portal's model estimates the share's upside at –100%

According to the portal's model, based on EBITDA growth and a target multiple, the fair value of the share corresponds to a –100% upside from the current price. This means the model considers the share significantly overvalued.

This assessment is consistent with high multiples and negative cash flow. However, the portal's model is an internal tool and is not a market consensus or a target price.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Resilient показала сильный рост чистой прибыли в первом полугодии 2026 года, но этот рост не подкреплён денежным потоком: операционный поток за последние 12 месяцев отрицательный, а долг растёт. Высокая рентабельность может быть частично обусловлена разовыми факторами, и без раскрытия причин мы не можем считать её устойчивой. Дивидендная доходность выше ключевой ставки, но выплаты, вероятно, финансируются за счёт долга, что увеличивает риски. При текущих мультипликаторах и негативной оценке модели портала акция выглядит непривлекательно.