Sibanye-Stillwater: EBITDA up 7.5x on metal prices, but portal model sees 64% downside

On August 25, Sibanye-Stillwater reported H1 2026 results: revenue up 64.3% YoY, EBITDA up 7.5x, and net profit of ZAR 16.2bn versus a loss a year earlier. At first glance the report is strong, but on the portal's model the share trades 64% above fair value, making it unattractive at the current price.

Key takeaways

— H1 revenue up 64.3% on strong palladium and rhodium prices

— EBITDA margin jumped from 7.5% to 34.6% – operating leverage on price growth

— Net profit of ZAR 16.2bn – first positive result in two years

— Net debt/EBITDA at 0.4 – balance sheet remains conservative

— Dividend for 2025 – 2.5% yield, but payouts hinge on metal prices

— Portal model values the share 64% below current price

Attractiveness

Key figures, ZAR bn

H1 revenue up 64.3% on strong palladium and rhodium prices

In H1 2026, Sibanye-Stillwater's revenue reached ZAR 164,900m, up 64.3% from the same period a year earlier. The main contribution came from platinum group metals operations – palladium and rhodium prices remained elevated.

The revenue growth is a price effect, not higher production volumes. The company did not disclose volume data for the reporting period, but metal price dynamics explain most of the increase.

EBITDA margin jumped from 7.5% to 34.6% – operating leverage on price growth

EBITDA for H1 grew 656.1% YoY, and the EBITDA margin rose from 7.5% to 34.6%. This is classic operating leverage: as metal prices rose, mining costs increased only modestly, so nearly all the revenue growth flowed into EBITDA.

Such a sharp margin jump implies a high share of fixed costs. If metal prices fall, the margin could compress as quickly as it expanded.

Net profit of ZAR 16.2bn – first positive result in two years

Net profit for H1 reached ZAR 16,165m, versus a loss a year earlier. Net margin came in at 19.7% against -6.6% in H1 2025.

The profit is the result of high metal prices and operating leverage. The report does not mention one-off items that could materially distort the figure.

Net debt/EBITDA at 0.4 – balance sheet remains conservative

Net debt at the end of H1 stood at ZAR 26,079m, or 0.4 of LTM EBITDA. This is a low level of leverage, leaving room for shareholder returns and investments.

Over the past 12 months, net debt declined by ZAR 7.1bn, and by ZAR 11.7bn versus the previous reporting date. The company generates enough cash to reduce debt even with an active investment programme.

Dividend for 2025 – 2.5% yield, but payouts hinge on metal prices

Over the last 12 months, Sibanye-Stillwater paid dividends that provided a yield of 2.49% at the current price. This is a moderate level, reflecting the company's cautious dividend policy.

Future payouts will depend on palladium and rhodium prices and on free cash flow. At current prices, the company can sustain payments, but any downturn in metal markets would put dividends at risk.

Portal model values the share 64% below current price

On the portal's model, which re-prices EBITDA at current metal prices and applies a target EV/EBITDA multiple, the fair value of the share is 64% below the current market price. This means the market has already priced in further metal price increases that may not materialise.

The current LTM EV/EBITDA multiple is 2.66, and P/E is 9.2. These levels look low, but they reflect peak EBITDA and profit, which could normalise if metal prices decline.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The H1 2026 report shows strong growth on the back of high metal prices: EBITDA up 7.5x, net profit turned positive, and leverage remains low. However, these results are largely a price effect that could reverse as quickly as it appeared. On the portal's model, the share trades 64% above fair value, making it unattractive at the current level. Investors should wait for a lower price or confirmation that metal prices are sustainable.