Vodacom: EBITDA margin up to 38.3%, dividend yield 4.8% — but shares trade at 14.1 P/E

25 августа Vodacom раскрыла результаты за финансовый год, закончившийся 31 марта 2026 года. Выручка выросла на 10,1% до 167,7 млрд рандов, EBITDA — на 16,5% до 64,1 млрд, чистая прибыль — на 24,4% до 20,6 млрд. При текущей цене акции выглядят привлекательно: P/E 14,1 и EV/EBITDA 5,2 — ниже собственной истории, а дивидендная доходность 4,8% подкреплена ростом прибыли.

Key takeaways

— Выручка +10,1% до 167,7 млрд рандов — рост ускорился благодаря финансовым услугам и Safaricom

— EBITDA-маржа расширилась на 2,1 п.п. до 38,3% — операционный рычаг и финтех

— Чистая прибыль +24,4% до 20,6 млрд рандов — помогли ассоциированные компании

— Долг вырос на 8,2 млрд рандов за год, но соотношение Net debt/EBITDA — 0,64

— Капзатраты 14,1% от выручки — в рамках целевого диапазона 13,5–14,5%

— Дивиденд вырос на 18,5% до 735 центов на акцию — доходность 4,8%

— По модели портала потенциал роста — +18% к справедливой стоимости

Attractiveness

Key figures, ZAR bn

Revenue +10.1% to ZAR 167.7bn — growth accelerated on financial services and Safaricom

For the fiscal year ended 31 March 2026, Vodacom's revenue grew 10.1% to ZAR 167.7bn. The main driver was financial services: revenue jumped 19.6% to ZAR 16.8bn, reflecting growth in M-Pesa and Vodafone Cash. Safaricom also contributed significantly, with its stake in the group increased following the transaction.

Service revenue rose 10.6% to ZAR 133.6bn, in line with the medium-term target of double-digit growth. The group serves 237.3 million customers, with Egypt and Kenya each exceeding 50 million. Revenue growth accelerated from the prior year's 10.1% — but on a normalised basis, excluding currency effects, growth reached 12.2%.

EBITDA margin expanded 2.1pp to 38.3% — operating leverage and fintech

EBITDA for the reported period grew 16.5% to ZAR 64.1bn, with EBITDA margin reaching 38.3% versus 36.2% a year earlier. The 2.1 percentage point expansion reflects operating leverage: revenue growth outpaced cost growth, helped by the high share of financial services with their low capital intensity.

The company's report shows EBITDA of ZAR 62.6bn with a margin of 37.4% — the difference from our figures is due to methodology (ours is LTM, including associates). Nevertheless, the trend is the same: margin is expanding, confirming the efficiency of the model.

Net profit +24.4% to ZAR 20.6bn — helped by associates

Net profit for the reported period grew 24.4% to ZAR 20.6bn, with net margin rising to 12.3% from 10.9% a year earlier. The key factor was associates: their contribution to profit increased 56.4% to ZAR 4.3bn, mainly from Safaricom.

Operating profit grew 23.2% to ZAR 44.1bn, indicating that net profit growth was not one-off — it is supported by operational dynamics. ROCE reached 27.5% versus 23.5% a year earlier, above the cost of capital.

Debt rose ZAR 8.2bn over the year, but Net debt/EBITDA is 0.64

Net debt on the latest balance sheet was ZAR 41.0bn. Over the year it increased by ZAR 8.2bn, although over the trailing twelve months to the reporting date it decreased by ZAR 14.1bn (in rouble equivalent). The net debt to EBITDA LTM ratio is 0.64, a low level for a telecommunications company.

The low debt level gives Vodacom financial flexibility to invest in growth, including recent Masiv and Safaricom transactions. Interest expenses are likely manageable, though exact figures are not disclosed.

Capex 14.1% of revenue — within the 13.5–14.5% target range

Capital expenditure for the reported period was ZAR 23.6bn, or 14.1% of revenue, within the narrowed target range of 13.5–14.5%. This is 16.5% higher than a year earlier, but capex intensity remains stable.

Operating cash flow over the trailing twelve months reached ZAR 56.0bn, comfortably covering capex. Free cash flow, per the company, grew 20.1% to ZAR 21.8bn, providing resources for dividends and transactions.

Dividend up 18.5% to 735 cents per share — yield 4.8%

The board proposed a total dividend of 735 cents per share for the year, up 18.5% from a year earlier. At the current share price, the trailing twelve-month dividend yield is 4.8% — above the market average and attractive for income-oriented investors.

Dividend growth outpaces inflation and aligns with profit growth, indicating quality of cash flow. The company maintains its free cash flow target, enhancing transparency for shareholders.

On the portal's model, upside potential is +18% to fair value

Our fundamental value-creation model, based on EBITDA growth and target multiple, shows Vodacom shares have +18% upside to fair value. This is above the current market price, making the stock attractive for long-term investors.

Shares trade at P/E LTM of 14.1 and EV/EBITDA LTM of 5.2, below historical averages for the telecom sector. With ROE of 24.9% and dividend yield of 4.8%, the valuation looks conservative.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Vodacom delivered a strong year: revenue and EBITDA growing at double-digit rates, margin expanding, and net profit up 24.4% thanks to associates. Debt leverage remains low (0.64), allowing dividend growth — they rose 18.5%. At P/E of 14.1 and EV/EBITDA of 5.2, shares are valued below the sector, and the portal's model gives +18% upside. The key question for holders is whether double-digit revenue growth persists amid currency volatility and competition. For now, fundamentals justify an 'attractive' rating.