Fertiglobe: revenue doubled in the quarter, but taxes and one-offs eat the entire profit growth

25 августа Fertiglobe раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года. Выручка выросла на 91,9% год к году, до 1 085,9 млн долл., EBITDA – на 79,7%, до 337,7 млн долл., чистая прибыль – на 466,8%, до 114,5 млн долл. Акции выглядят привлекательно при текущей цене: мультипликаторы ниже исторических уровней, долг минимален, а дивидендная доходность превышает 5%.

Key takeaways

— Выручка удвоилась благодаря росту цен и объёмов продаж удобрений

— EBITDA-маржа снизилась с 33,2% до 31,1% из-за роста затрат на сырьё и логистику

— Чистая прибыль выросла в 5,7 раза, но почти половина прироста – разовые налоговые эффекты

— Операционный денежный поток вырос в 2,5 раза, но капитальные затраты остаются скромными

— Чистый долг снизился до 621,2 млн долл., соотношение долг/EBITDA – 0,76

— Дивиденд за 2025 год составил 0,10 долл. на акцию, доходность – около 5%

— Акции торгуются с дисконтом к собственной истории: P/E 13,9 против среднего за 3 года 16,2

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue doubled thanks to higher fertilizer prices and sales volumes

In Q2 2026, Fertiglobe's revenue reached USD 1,085.9 million, up 91.9% year-on-year. This is the fourth consecutive quarter of acceleration: growth accelerated from +14.1% in Q2 2025 to +53.0% in Q3, +73.5% in Q4, and +31.7% in Q1 2026.

The main driver is the favorable environment in the nitrogen fertilizer market: ammonia and urea prices rose, and sales volumes increased thanks to the launch of new capacities. The company also benefited from the weakening of the dollar against the currencies of importing countries, which boosted demand.

EBITDA margin fell from 33.2% to 31.1% due to higher raw material and logistics costs

EBITDA in Q2 2026 grew 79.7% year-on-year to USD 337.7 million, but the EBITDA margin fell to 31.1% from 33.2% a year earlier. The reason is the faster growth in cost of sales: natural gas and freight became more expensive, and personnel and maintenance costs also rose.

The decline in profitability is not a one-off: in recent quarters, the company has consistently shown pressure on margins due to rising costs. However, the absolute EBITDA remains high, allowing it to generate significant cash flow.

Net profit grew 5.7 times, but almost half of the increase is one-off tax effects

Net profit in Q2 2026 amounted to USD 114.5 million versus USD 20.2 million a year earlier. The 466.8% increase is explained not only by operating results, but also by one-off tax effects – in particular, the recognition of deferred tax assets and the revaluation of liabilities.

Excluding these effects, net profit would have grown by about 250–300%, which is still impressive, but not as much. Investors should remember that in the next quarter the comparison base will be higher, and growth rates will slow down.

Operating cash flow grew 2.5 times, but capital expenditures remain modest

Operating cash flow in Q2 2026 amounted to USD 349.8 million versus USD 142.7 million a year earlier. The growth is explained by higher profits and improved working capital management – the company reduced inventories and accelerated collection of receivables.

Capital expenditures for the quarter were USD 33.6 million – only 3.1% of revenue. The company has completed its main investment projects and now spends on maintaining capacity. Free cash flow (OCF minus capex) was USD 316.2 million, providing a high dividend base.

Net debt fell to USD 621.2 million, debt/EBITDA ratio – 0.76

At the end of Q2 2026, Fertiglobe's net debt stood at USD 621.2 million versus USD 908.7 million a year earlier. The decrease of USD 287.5 million was driven by strong operating cash flow and moderate capital expenditures.

The ratio of net debt to EBITDA for the trailing twelve months is 0.76. This is a low level, giving the company financial flexibility to increase dividends or finance new projects without raising equity.

Dividend for 2025 was USD 0.10 per share, yield – about 5%

Fertiglobe paid a dividend for 2025 of USD 0.10 per share. At the current price, this gives a yield of about 5%, which is higher than the average yield over the past three years (4.2%) and comparable to the key rate.

For 2026, we expect a dividend in the range of USD 0.12–0.14 per share, based on the company's payout policy (40–60% of net profit) and a net profit forecast of USD 500–550 million. However, the actual amount will depend on fertilizer prices and possible one-off write-offs.

The risk to dividends is a sharp drop in nitrogen fertilizer prices, which could reduce profits and cash flow. The company, however, has low debt and can support payments through borrowed funds, but this would reduce financial flexibility.

Shares trade at a discount to their own history: P/E 13.9 versus 3-year average of 16.2

Based on the trailing twelve months, Fertiglobe's P/E is 13.9, below the three-year average of 16.2. EV/EBITDA is 5.5, also below the historical average of 6.8. This indicates that the shares are undervalued relative to their own history.

The low multiples are explained by investor caution regarding the cyclicality of fertilizer prices. However, current financial indicators – revenue growth, high profitability, and low debt – justify a higher valuation.

If fertilizer prices remain at current levels, the shares have the potential to rise toward fair value, which we estimate at 16–17 on P/E. The key risk is a sharp decline in prices, which would lead to lower profits and multiples.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Fertiglobe posted a strong quarter: revenue doubled, EBITDA grew 80%, and net debt fell to a minimum level. However, part of the net profit growth was due to one-off tax effects, and margins continue to decline due to rising costs. At the same time, the shares trade at a discount to their own history, and the dividend yield exceeds 5%, making them attractive for long-term investors. The key question for holders is whether fertilizer prices will remain at current levels, as this determines the sustainability of financial results.