Regis: profit up 2.8x, but the portal's model sees 27% downside

On August 25, Regis reported results for the fiscal year ended June 2026: revenue up 42.8%, EBITDA up 73.3%, net profit up 2.8x. At the current price, the share looks unattractive: the EV/EBITDA multiple is below its three-year average, but the portal's model sees 27% downside.

Key takeaways

— Revenue grew 42.8% driven by higher gold prices and increased production

— EBITDA margin expanded from 46.9% to 57.0% on operating leverage

— Net profit grew 2.8x, helped by lower unit costs

— The company has a net cash position: net debt is negative, with net debt/EBITDA at -0.77

— Shares trade at a discount to their own history: EV/EBITDA of 3.9 vs. 4.7 three-year average

— The portal's model values the share 27% below the current price

— Dividend yield of 2.4% looks moderate at current valuation

Attractiveness

Key figures, AUD bn

Revenue grew 42.8% driven by higher gold prices and increased production

For the fiscal year ended June 2026, Regis's revenue reached AUD 2,400.0 million, up 42.8% from a year earlier. The main drivers were higher gold prices and increased production volumes.

Revenue growth drove a significant expansion in EBITDA margin: from 46.9% to 57.0%. This reflects a double effect – from higher prices and operating leverage.

EBITDA margin expanded from 46.9% to 57.0% on operating leverage

EBITDA for the reporting period grew 73.3% to AUD 1,339.6 million. EBITDA margin reached 57.0% versus 46.9% a year earlier. The margin expansion is due to costs growing slower than revenue, typical for mining companies when commodity prices rise.

Net margin also improved significantly: from 15.4% to 30.4%. This reflects not only operating leverage but also likely lower unit costs and efficient cost management.

Net profit grew 2.8x, helped by lower unit costs

Net profit for the reporting period was AUD 715.1 million, up 181.1% year-on-year. Profit growth significantly outpaced revenue growth, confirming operating leverage and cost control.

Net margin reached 30.4% versus 15.4% a year earlier. This is among the highest in the industry, reflecting favorable pricing and an efficient cost structure.

The company has a net cash position: net debt is negative, with net debt/EBITDA at -0.77

At the latest balance sheet date, Regis's net debt was AUD -1,037.4 million, meaning the company has a net cash position. Net debt/EBITDA for the trailing twelve months is -0.77, indicating significant financial strength.

Over the last 12 months, net debt decreased by AUD 0.7 billion, reflecting strong operating cash flow of AUD 1,200.0 million over the same period. The company generates sufficient cash to fund investments and dividends.

Shares trade at a discount to their own history: EV/EBITDA of 3.9 vs. 4.7 three-year average

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 3.9, below the three-year average of 4.7. This means the market values the company cheaper than its own history, despite strong financial results.

P/E for the trailing twelve months is 8.7, which also looks moderate for a company with ROE of 36.0%. However, as the portal's model shows, the current price may not reflect all risks.

The portal's model values the share 27% below the current price

According to the portal's model, when EBITDA is re-priced at current gold prices and target EV/EBITDA, the fair value of the share is 27% below the current market price. This suggests that the market may have already priced in an optimistic scenario, and further upside may be limited.

It is important to note that this is the portal's own model estimate, not a market consensus or target price. Investors should consider this factor when making decisions.

Dividend yield of 2.4% looks moderate at current valuation

Over the trailing twelve months, the dividend yield was 2.4%. Given the current valuation and strong cash flow, the company could pay more, but it likely prefers to reinvest in growth.

For income-oriented investors, 2.4% may be insufficiently attractive, especially considering the potential downside per the portal's model.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Regis delivered strong results for the fiscal year: revenue and profit grew at impressive rates, margins expanded, and the company has a net cash position. However, the current share price already reflects many positive factors, and the portal's model indicates 27% downside. The attractiveness is further reduced by moderate dividend yield and potential deterioration in the gold market. Our verdict is unattractive.