Barrick Mining Corporation: Q2 2026 revenue up 43.8%, but portal model suggests 20% downside to fair value

25 августа Barrick Mining Corporation раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: выручка выросла на 43,8% год к году, до 5 292 млн долл., EBITDA – на 73,1%, до 3 205 млн долл., чистая прибыль – на 50,1%, до 1 217 млн долл. На фоне сильных операционных показателей и отрицательного чистого долга акции выглядят скорее непривлекательно: по модели портала потенциал снижения составляет -20%.

Key takeaways

— Q2 2026 revenue grew 43.8% YoY to USD 5,292 million, driven by higher gold and copper prices

— EBITDA margin reached 60.6% versus 50.3% a year earlier, reflecting operating leverage and cost control

— Net profit includes one-off effects, including USD 4,567 million in Q4 2025, distorting annual dynamics

— Operating cash flow for the last twelve months was USD 7,700 million, covering capital expenditures and dividends

— Net debt is negative at minus USD 2,003 million, providing financial flexibility and supporting shareholder returns

— Dividend yield over the last twelve months is 2.1%, below historical levels and the key rate, limiting appeal for income investors

— EV/EBITDA multiple (5.7x) is close to its three-year average (5.7x), but the portal model values the stock 20% below the current price

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Q2 2026 revenue grew 43.8% YoY to USD 5,292 million, driven by higher gold and copper prices

In Q2 2026, Barrick Mining Corporation's revenue reached USD 5,292 million, up 43.8% from the same quarter a year earlier. Growth accelerated compared to previous quarters: Q1 2026 revenue rose 66.7%, and Q4 2025 revenue was up 64.5%.

The main drivers were higher gold and copper prices, as well as increased production volumes. The company continues to benefit from favorable market conditions, reflected in sustained revenue growth over the last four quarters.

EBITDA margin reached 60.6% versus 50.3% a year earlier, reflecting operating leverage and cost control

EBITDA in Q2 2026 grew 73.1% YoY to USD 3,205 million, with EBITDA margin expanding from 50.3% to 60.6%. The margin improvement is driven by operating leverage: revenue growth with relatively stable costs allows profit to grow faster.

Notably, the company has shown high efficiency in recent quarters: EBITDA margin for the last twelve months was 61.3% (LTM EBITDA of USD 12,683.8 million to LTM revenue of USD 20,700 million). This confirms management's ability to control costs even amid production growth.

Net profit includes one-off effects, including USD 4,567 million in Q4 2025, distorting annual dynamics

Net profit in Q2 2026 was USD 1,217 million, up 50.1% from a year earlier. However, in Q4 2025 net profit reached USD 4,567 million, significantly above the average of other quarters – indicating one-off gains, likely from asset sales or revaluation.

Over the last twelve months, net profit was USD 4,925 million, but excluding one-off effects from Q4 2025, it would be substantially lower. Investors should note that annual profit dynamics may be volatile due to such one-off items.

Operating cash flow for the last twelve months was USD 7,700 million, covering capital expenditures and dividends

Operating cash flow for the last twelve months reached USD 7,700 million, significantly exceeding capital expenditures over the same period – USD 5,616 million (sum of capex over four quarters). This provides positive free cash flow, which can be directed to dividends and debt repayment.

In Q2 2026, operating cash flow was USD 1,704 million with capital expenditures of USD 1,189 million, resulting in free cash flow of about USD 515 million for the quarter. The company maintains its ability to fund investments and shareholder payments from operations.

Net debt is negative at minus USD 2,003 million, providing financial flexibility and supporting shareholder returns

As of the latest reporting date, Barrick Mining Corporation's net debt was minus USD 2,003 million, meaning the company has a net cash position. The net debt to EBITDA ratio for the last twelve months is -0.16, indicating extremely low leverage.

Over the last twelve months, net debt decreased by USD 1.2 billion, reflecting free cash flow generation. Financial flexibility allows the company to maintain dividends and consider growth opportunities without significantly increasing leverage.

Dividend yield over the last twelve months is 2.1%, below historical levels and the key rate, limiting appeal for income investors

Over the last twelve months, Barrick paid dividends providing a yield of 2.1% at the current price. This is lower than many companies in the sector and significantly below the key rate, making the stock less attractive for income-focused investors.

The company maintains a policy of returning capital to shareholders, but the size of payments depends on free cash flow and metal prices. Given current gold and copper prices, dividends may remain at a comparable level, but the potential for growth is limited as part of profits is directed to investments.

EV/EBITDA multiple (5.7x) is close to its three-year average (5.7x), but the portal model values the stock 20% below the current price

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 5.7x, almost exactly matching the three-year average (5.7x). This suggests the market values the company in line with its historical parameters, with neither premium nor discount.

However, according to the portal model, which re-prices EBITDA at current metal prices and applies a target multiple, the fair value of the share is 20% below the current market price. This implies the market has already priced in an optimistic scenario, and upside potential is limited.

P/E over the last twelve months is 15.2x, which at ROE of 17.8% looks moderate but does not indicate clear undervaluation. Given a dividend yield of 2.1% and the absence of a significant catalyst for growth, the stock appears rather overvalued.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Barrick Mining Corporation posted strong results in Q2 2026: revenue grew 43.8%, EBITDA margin reached 60.6%, and net debt remains negative. However, a significant portion of profit over the last twelve months is related to one-off effects, and the dividend yield of 2.1% is low. Moreover, the portal model suggests 20% downside potential, making the shares rather unattractive at current levels. A change in the verdict would require either a significant price decline or sustained growth in dividends and free cash flow.