Teck Resources: Q2 profit quadruples, but portal model sees only -4% upside

25 августа Teck Resources раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: выручка выросла на 81,4% год к году, до 2 625,8 млн долл., EBITDA – на 170,8%, до 1 335,1 млн долл., чистая прибыль – на 321,9%, до 622,0 млн долл.. На фоне сильного отчёта акции выглядят справедливо оценёнными: по модели портала потенциал составляет -4%, что делает бумагу нейтральной.

Key takeaways

— Q2 revenue grew 81.4% driven by high coal and copper prices

— EBITDA margin reached 50.8% versus 34.1% a year ago – operating leverage at full effect

— Net profit quadrupled, but part of the growth is due to one-off factors

— Debt burden remains low: net debt is negative, and the ratio to EBITDA is minus 0.07

— Dividend yield is modest at 0.39%, below the market average

— EV/EBITDA valuation of 8.9 is above its historical average, but the portal model implies only -4% upside

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Q2 revenue grew 81.4% driven by high coal and copper prices

In Q2 2026, Teck Resources' revenue reached 2,625.8 million USD, up 81.4% year-on-year. Growth accelerated compared to Q1, when revenue rose 80.0% – the trend has persisted for two consecutive quarters.

The main driver was high coal and copper prices, the company's core commodities. In previous quarters, revenue had declined (down 45.2% and 48.8% in Q1 and Q2 2025, respectively), but since Q3 2025 growth has been robust.

Over the trailing twelve months, revenue reached 10,100.0 million USD, reflecting a solid recovery after a weak 2025.

EBITDA margin reached 50.8% versus 34.1% a year ago – operating leverage at full effect

EBITDA in Q2 2026 reached 1,335.1 million USD, up 170.8% year-on-year. The EBITDA margin stood at 50.8% – significantly above the 34.1% level in Q2 2025.

The margin expansion is explained by operating leverage: with revenue growing 81.4%, EBITDA grew more than twice as fast. This indicates the company kept costs under control, and higher commodity prices directly translated into profit.

Over the trailing twelve months, EBITDA reached 3,835.3 million USD, confirming the sustainability of high margins.

Net profit quadrupled, but part of the growth is due to one-off factors

Net profit in Q2 2026 reached 622.0 million USD, up 321.9% year-on-year. The net margin expanded to 23.7% from 10.2% in Q2 2025.

Profit growth significantly outpaced EBITDA growth, indicating one-off gains or a lower effective tax rate. The report does not disclose details, but such a gap between operating and net profit warrants attention.

Over the trailing twelve months, net profit reached 1,809.0 million USD, implying a net margin of about 17.9%.

Debt burden remains low: net debt is negative, and the ratio to EBITDA is minus 0.07

As of the latest balance sheet date, net debt stood at -285.1 million USD, meaning cash exceeded debt. The net debt to EBITDA ratio over the trailing twelve months was -0.07, indicating financial strength.

Net debt increased by 2.4 billion USD during the quarter, but decreased by 1.3 billion USD over the last 12 months. This dynamic reflects active financing of the investment program.

Operating cash flow in Q2 reached 1,251.4 million USD, significantly above profit, confirming the quality of earnings.

Dividend yield is modest at 0.39%, below the market average

Over the trailing twelve months, Teck Resources paid dividends of 0.39% of the current share price. This is a modest figure, especially for a commodity company where investors often expect more generous payouts.

Given the current market capitalization of 34,359.4 million USD and net profit of 1,809.0 million USD over the trailing twelve months, the payout ratio is about 7.4% – the company distributes only a small portion of profit as dividends.

Management likely prefers to reinvest funds in development, which may be justified given high commodity prices and the need to finance capital expenditures.

EV/EBITDA valuation of 8.9 is above its historical average, but the portal model implies only -4% upside

The current EV/EBITDA multiple stands at 8.9, above the three-year average. P/E is 19.0, also suggesting that the market has already priced in expectations of strong results.

According to the portal's model, which re-prices EBITDA at current commodity prices and applies a target EV/EBITDA, the share's upside potential is -4% relative to the current market price. This implies the stock trades near fair value.

Return on equity is 12.7%, which is acceptable but not outstanding. Given this valuation and limited upside, the shares look neutral.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The Q2 2026 report was strong: revenue and EBITDA grew by over 80% and 170%, respectively, margins reached 50.8%, and net debt is negative. However, part of the profit may be one-off, and the dividend yield is low. With an EV/EBITDA of 8.9 and a portal model potential of -4%, the shares appear fairly valued. The verdict is neutral: further upside would require either higher commodity prices or increased dividend payouts.