ANTAM: H1 profit up 36%, but operating cash flow turned negative by IDR 0.75 trillion

On August 28, 2026, PT ANTAM (Persero) Tbk released its H1 2026 results. Revenue rose 6.3% to IDR 62.7 trillion, net profit jumped 36% to IDR 6.9 trillion. However, operating cash flow came in at minus IDR 0.75 trillion versus plus IDR 2.3 trillion a year earlier. At the current price, the share looks unattractive: P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples are below historical averages, but the portal's model implies 60% downside.

Key takeaways

— H1 net profit rose 36% to IDR 6.9 trillion, but operating cash flow turned negative by IDR 0.75 trillion

— H1 EBITDA margin was 14.3%, net margin 10.2%

— Debt burden remains negative: net debt minus IDR 4.1 trillion, or -0.0 EBITDA LTM

— Capex for H1 was only IDR 0.3 trillion, keeping overall cash flow positive

— Trailing dividend yield is 6.8%, above market average

— Portal's model implies 60% downside from current price

Attractiveness

Key figures, IDR bn

H1 net profit rose 36% to IDR 6.9 trillion, but operating cash flow turned negative by IDR 0.75 trillion

For H1 2026, ANTAM earned IDR 6.9 trillion in net profit versus IDR 5.1 trillion a year earlier. Growth was driven by operating profit (IDR 8.4 trillion vs IDR 6.1 trillion) and positive FX gains (IDR 0.3 trillion).

However, operating cash flow was minus IDR 0.75 trillion versus plus IDR 2.3 trillion in H1 2025. The main reason is inventories nearly doubling, from IDR 7.7 trillion to IDR 14.7 trillion, and higher receivables. The company is building working capital, which eats into profit.

H1 EBITDA margin was 14.3%, net margin 10.2%

H1 2026 EBITDA margin was 14.3%, net margin 10.2%. This is noticeably lower than many mining companies, reflecting rising costs: cost of revenue grew 2.1% to IDR 51.9 trillion on 6.3% revenue growth.

Operating profit rose more strongly – up 37.6% to IDR 8.4 trillion – thanks to control over selling and administrative expenses, which grew only 10.4% and 15.8%, respectively. But this advantage is not visible in cash terms – operating flow is negative.

Debt burden remains negative: net debt minus IDR 4.1 trillion, or -0.0 EBITDA LTM

As of end-June 2026, ANTAM's net debt is negative: minus IDR 4.1 trillion, meaning cash exceeds debt. Net debt to EBITDA for the trailing twelve months is -0.0.

Over the past twelve months, net debt rose by IDR 2.1 trillion but remains negative. The company increased bank loans (short- and long-term) to finance working capital, but financial stability is not yet a concern.

Capex for H1 was only IDR 0.3 trillion, keeping overall cash flow positive

Investments in fixed assets, exploration and evaluation for H1 2026 totalled IDR 0.3 trillion (IDR 0.21 trillion fixed assets, IDR 0.07 trillion exploration, IDR 0.02 trillion intangibles). This is modest for a company of this scale.

Thanks to low capex, total cash flow for H1 remained positive – IDR 0.77 trillion – despite negative operating flow. But if the company steps up investment, free cash flow could turn negative.

Trailing dividend yield is 6.8%, above market average

Over the trailing twelve months, ANTAM paid dividends yielding 6.8% at the current price. This is above the Indonesian market average and makes the stock attractive for income-oriented investors.

However, with negative operating cash flow and rising inventories, dividend payments may be funded by debt. The balance sheet already shows 'dividend payable' of IDR 4.9 trillion, indicating large declared but unpaid dividends.

Portal's model implies 60% downside from current price

According to the portal's model, re-pricing EBITDA at current commodity prices and applying the target EV/EBITDA multiple puts the share's fair value 60% below the current market price. This is the portal's own calculation, not a market consensus.

Current multiples – P/E LTM 5.46 and EV/EBITDA LTM 3.99 – look low, but the model suggests the market is overvaluing the company's future cash flows. If nickel and gold prices correct, profit and EBITDA could fall significantly.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

ANTAM showed strong profit growth in H1 2026, but it is not backed by cash flow: operating flow turned negative due to inventory build-up. Profitability remains moderate, and debt burden is negative, providing a safety cushion. However, the portal's model implies 60% downside, which outweighs low multiples and high dividend yield. At the current price, the share looks unattractive: the market likely prices in sustained high commodity prices, which is not guaranteed. Investors should wait for confirmation of improved operating cash flow or a price correction.