Indonesia Stocks — Valuations, P/E & Dividends

This Q1 season in Indonesia is defined by a brutal divergence: commodity-linked names and banks are sprinting ahead, while consumer staples and telecoms stumble. The standout story is not just who grew — it's who grew profitably and who got left behind. Revenue growth ranges from a blistering +286% to a -7% decline, but the real action is in net profit, where several players have delivered eye-popping expansions that dwarf their top-line gains.

Revenue growth, biggest movers (YoY)

Commodity and energy players dominate the growth podium

The undisputed revenue champion is TPIA, which exploded +286% year over year, rebounding from a prior -17% decline — a remarkable turnaround. In the coal and metals space, ADRO posted a strong +23% revenue gain and an even better +47% net profit surge, while ANTM delivered +12% revenue growth and a stunning +60% EBITDA expansion. CPIN, in the agribusiness space, also shined with +13% revenue and +68% net profit growth, showing that demand for protein remains robust.

Consumer and telecom laggards face margin pain

The weakest revenue performance came from BBCA, which saw a -7% decline, though its net profit actually rose +13% — a testament to cost control. But the real laggard is ASII, with revenue down -6%, EBITDA crashing -19%, and net profit falling -16%. TLKM also disappointed: revenue barely grew +2%, but net profit plunged -25%, signaling severe margin compression. These are classic 'value traps' — low P/E multiples (ASII at 6.2x, TLKM at 15.5x) but deteriorating earnings.

The plot twist: banks defy revenue stagnation with profit surges

Here's the surprise: while BBCA's revenue shrank -7%, its net profit jumped +13% — a feat repeated by BMRI, which saw revenue dip -2% but net profit soar +17%. BBRI also impressed with +12% revenue growth and +13% net profit expansion. The banking sector is proving that margin expansion and lower provisions can more than compensate for sluggish top lines. This is a genuine plot twist — investors expecting revenue growth to drive profits are missing the real story of operational leverage.

Valuation bargains hide in plain sight among high-growth names

The most compelling value play is ADRO: growing revenue +23% and net profit +47%, yet trading at just 7.5x P/E and 4.8x EV/EBITDA. That's cheap for that growth trajectory. INDF is even cheaper at 5.4x P/E and 2.1x EV/EBITDA, with +7% revenue growth and +9% net profit — a defensive bargain. On the expensive side, SMGR trades at a staggering 42.5x P/E despite only +8% revenue growth, while BYAN at 27.5x P/E with no current growth data looks priced for perfection. GOTO's 72.8x EV/EBITDA is in a league of its own — pure speculation.

Income seekers find shelter in coal and staples

While dividend yields are not explicitly listed in the data, the combination of low EV/EBITDA and high profitability suggests strong cash generation. INDF at 2.1x EV/EBITDA and ITMG at 2.6x are likely top yielders — both are mature, cash-rich businesses. PGAS at 1.7x EV/EBITDA is also a candidate for high free cash flow yield, though its revenue declined -4% and net profit swung wildly. For income-focused investors, these names offer a margin of safety.

Looking ahead, the key question is whether commodity prices can sustain the momentum seen at ADRO and ANTM, and whether banks can continue to expand margins without revenue growth. The 3-year revenue CAGR data is unavailable, but the standout growth trajectory belongs to TPIA, which has transformed from a prior -17% revenue decline to +286% — a dramatic acceleration that bears close monitoring. If this pace holds, TPIA could redefine its sector. For now, the smart money follows the profit growth, not the revenue headlines.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)

Bank Mandiri (IDX: BMRI) fits a profile that has historically produced outsized returns on frontier markets: the leading bank of a fast-growing economy, trading at 4.8x earnings with a double-digit dividend yield and accelerating growth. This review is built on primary filings - consolidated IFRS statements and the monthly bank-only disclosures mandated by Indonesia's regulator OJK.

The #2 bank of the world's 4th most populous country

Mandiri is a state-controlled (52%) universal bank with roughly IDR 2,300 trillion (~$130bn) of bank-only assets. Indonesia has 280+ million people, banking penetration well below regional peers, and ~9-10% nominal GDP growth (5% real plus ~3% inflation). Unlike its retail-focused state peers, Mandiri is the wholesale champion (Kopra corporate platform) with a fast-scaling retail super-app (Livin'). Cheap current-and-savings accounts fund 71.6% of the balance sheet.

Profit doubled in four years; ROE ~20%

Group IFRS revenue grew from IDR 86.6trn in 2021 to 144.8trn in 2025; net profit doubled from 28.0trn to 56.3trn. ROE rose from 12.6% to 17-19%, and printed 20.4% in Q1 2026. Management targets sustainably above 20%.

Monthly regulatory data: growth is accelerating, not slowing

Indonesian banks publish monthly balance sheets and P&L (an OJK requirement). As of May 2026 (bank-only): loans +20.6% y/y, assets +20%, deposits +22%, five-month net profit +18.3% y/y with impairments down 16%. Every month of 2026 has printed double-digit profit growth over the same month of 2025.

One nuance only visible in monthly data: net interest income grows slower than loans (+10% vs +21%) as time deposits (+57% y/y) outpace cheap CASA - the reason management trimmed 2026 NIM guidance to 4.5-4.7%.

The Q1 2026 asset 'shrinkage' is an accounting event, not the business

Consolidated assets fell from IDR 2,830trn to 2,433trn in Q1 2026. The cause is the deconsolidation of sharia subsidiary BSI (IDR 456trn of assets): its golden share moved to sovereign fund Danantara on 23.01.2026, and the stake became a financial investment. Dividends are irrelevant here - the IDR 35.1trn payout hit equity in April. Consolidated y/y comparisons will look depressed through 2026; the clean monthly bank-only series shows +20% growth.

2026 guidance: loans +7-9%, credit cost 60-80bp, payout 65-70%

Management guides loans +7-9% (running above), NIM 4.5-4.7% (Q1: 4.7%), cost of credit 60-80bp (gross NPL 0.98%, net 0.41%), CIR ~40%, ROE above 20%, dividend payout 65-70% of profit.

Dividend per share tripled in four years; ~11% gross yield

The approved FY2025 payout is 70% of profit (IDR 44.5trn): a Rp100 interim (January 2026) plus a Rp376.96 final dividend - roughly 11% on the current price. The controlling shareholder, sovereign fund Danantara, is institutionally pushing payout ratios up across state banks. Non-resident withholding tax is 20% (for jurisdictions without a treaty), leaving ~9% net.

Valuation: 20%-ROE capital at 1.2x book

P/E 4.8, P/B 1.21 at ~19-20% ROE. A sustainable-growth cross-check: with 20% ROE, ~9% growth and even a stressed 16% cost of equity, fair P/B is ~1.6 - roughly 30-40% upside before any re-rating of the country discount. Local brokers carry IDR 5,700 targets (1.7x book). Within the same sector, privately-owned Bank Central Asia trades at 2.9x book on a 23.7% ROE - a measure of the discount embedded in state banks.

The rupiah: -14% under the new president, hedgeable at 2.8%/yr

Rupiah depreciation is historically moderate and gradual: ~4.7%/yr over 5 years, ~3.1%/yr over 10, with no one-day collapses (unlike the tenge or rouble). The last year brought a -10% acceleration on capital outflows: finance minister Sri Mulyani's dismissal, opaque governance at Danantara, and fiscal expansion. Bank Indonesia defends the currency at a 5.75% policy rate against 3.3% inflation (+2.4% real), and the forward market prices just 2.8% annual depreciation - the position's currency risk can be insured for a quarter of the dividend. For comparison: hedging the rouble costs ~9%/yr, the tenge ~13%/yr.

Versus Halyk and Sberbank: the best hedged-USD expected return

Halyk (P/E 3.8, ROE 26%, ~11% net dividend) prints -4% y/y profit for 5M2026 under tighter reserve requirements and retail lending rules, while the tenge has appreciated ~18% in real terms over a year with a prohibitive ~13% hedge cost. Sberbank (P/B 0.81, ROE 24%) grows profit +20% y/y, but the rouble hedge costs ~9%/yr and the currency sits at multi-year real highs. Mandiri is the only one of the three combining positive profit momentum with a cheap hedge: ~9% net dividend + ~10% EPS growth - 2.8% hedge = ~15-16% expected USD return with currency risk closed.

Risks

Danantara governance (the same control that lifts payouts can direct banks into policy programmes); directed lending (the $12bn village-cooperative scheme mostly burdens retail-focused BBRI, but the perimeter can widen); NIM pressure from expensive time deposits; depreciation above forward rates if outflows persist; and the 20% dividend withholding for most non-residents.

How to buy

The practical route for international investors is the unsponsored ADR PPERY (US OTC): available at Interactive Brokers at standard US commissions (~$0.005/share), ~$1.6m average daily turnover - comparable to Halyk's LSE GDR. Use limit orders only (OTC spreads); the depositary deducts ~$0.01-0.05/share/yr from dividends. Direct Jakarta listing BMRI.JK for those with IDX access.

Prepared by Eninvs (July 2026) from Bank Mandiri's IFRS statements, OJK monthly filings, KASE, CBR, MOEX and national-regulator data. Not investment advice.