Nickel's blowout H1: INCO's profit surge leaves coal and banks in the dust

This season's corporate results are defined by a single, stark divergence: nickel miner INCO posted a 313.4% year-over-year surge in net profit, while petrochemicals player TPIA saw its bottom line collapse 82.5%. That gulf — between a commodity upcycle and a demand-starved processor — is the story of the half. Revenue growth across industries ranged from +27.3% in nickel mining to -3.8% in gas distribution, but the real action was in earnings, where the winners and losers separated by hundreds of percentage points.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Nickel and coal miners delivered the earnings goods

INCO was the undisputed star: revenue rose 27.3% year over year, the strongest of any industry median, and net profit exploded 313.4%. That profit growth accelerated from +100.1% in the prior period, a clear sign that the nickel price rally and volume gains are feeding straight through to the bottom line. Among coal miners, ADRO also impressed with net profit up 68.9%, accelerating from +64.6%, on revenue growth of 16.5%.

Coal mining overall posted a median revenue gain of 8.8%, with ITMG and BYAN contributing solid mid-single-digit top-line growth. But the profit picture was even brighter: ITMG's net profit rose 16.5% after a prior-period decline of 15.8%, a sharp reversal. BYAN swung from a 12.4% profit drop to a 17.5% increase. The coal patch is not just stable — it is quietly re-accelerating.

Banks are a mixed bag, but BMRI's profit growth stands out

The banking sector's median revenue growth was a modest +2.8%, but underneath the surface, performance diverged sharply. BMRI grew net profit by 17.8% despite a 8.7% decline in revenue — a margin-expansion story that accelerated from +11.6% profit growth in the prior period. BBNI, by contrast, grew revenue 14.2% but net profit only 6.6%, suggesting cost pressure or provisioning. The lesson: in banks, top-line growth is not the same as bottom-line success.

TPIA's profit collapse is the season's ugliest number

TPIA posted a staggering 82.5% year-over-year decline in net profit, a brutal reversal from the prior period when revenue had soared 286.4% (though profit was not meaningful). This is a classic petrochemical downcycle: demand weakness and margin compression have hit hard. Gas distributor PGAS also struggled, with revenue down 3.8% and EBITDA plunging 40.4%, though net profit managed a tiny +0.3% gain. The energy-adjacent space is clearly under pressure.

The plot twist: BMRI's profit acceleration despite falling revenue

The most intriguing surprise is BMRI. Revenue fell 8.7% year over year — the only bank with a decline — yet net profit accelerated from +11.6% to +17.8%. That is a rare combination: shrinking top line, expanding bottom line. It suggests a deliberate shift toward higher-margin business or one-off gains. Meanwhile, INCO's profit growth accelerated from +100.1% to +313.4%, a massive step-up that confirms the nickel upcycle is far from over. Both stories defy the simple narrative that revenue growth is everything.

Cheap for the growth: INCO and ADRO look undervalued; BYAN is priced for perfection

INCO trades at a P/E of 17.7x and EV/EBITDA of 12.2x — not cheap in absolute terms, but for a company growing net profit at 313.4%, it is arguably a bargain. ADRO, with profit up 68.9%, trades at just 8.5x earnings and 5.3x EV/EBITDA — a clear value case. In contrast, BYAN's P/E of 29.3x and EV/EBITDA of 21.7x look rich for a coal miner growing revenue at 7.3% and profit at 17.5%. That is priced for perfection. Among banks, BMRI at 6.2x earnings with profit growth of 17.8% stands out as cheap, while BBCA at 13.3x is the premium name.

Income: coal and consumer staples offer the fattest yields

For yield hunters, coal miners are the place to be. ITMG and ADRO, with their low P/E multiples and strong cash generation, are likely to return significant cash to shareholders. Among consumer staples, ICBP and INDF trade at P/E of 5.6x and 5.5x respectively, with EV/EBITDA of 2.7x and 2.1x — deep value with stable demand. While dividend yields are not explicitly provided, the combination of low multiples and resilient profits suggests these names will offer attractive income.

The long view: while 3-year revenue CAGR data is not available, the current momentum is telling. INCO's accelerating profit growth and ADRO's consistent double-digit gains suggest these commodity plays have legs. The key risk is a reversal in nickel or coal prices, which would quickly erode the earnings surge. For now, the market is rewarding those with pricing power and penalizing those without. Watch for whether BMRI's margin expansion is sustainable and if TPIA can find a bottom. The next half will separate the cyclical winners from the structural losers.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)