BCA: H1 net profit nearly flat, but quarterly swings hide resilience

31 июля Bank Central Asia раскрыла результаты за первое полугодие 2026 года: чистая прибыль составила 29 545,6 млн IDR, что на 1,8% выше аналогичного периода прошлого года. Однако квартальная динамика крайне волатильна: во втором квартале 2026 года прибыль упала на 99,9% год к году, до 14,7 млн IDR, после убытка в четвёртом квартале 2025 года. На фоне этих колебаний акции выглядят привлекательно: ROE 21,4%, дивидендная доходность 5,8%, а по модели портала upside составляет 0%.

Key takeaways

— H1 net profit rose 1.8%, but quarterly swings hide resilience

— Operating profit for H1 rose 1.8%, supported by higher fee income

— Net interest income nearly flat despite loan growth

— Impairment charges declined, supporting profit

— Dividend for 2025 was 36,985 million IDR, implying a 4.6% yield at current price

— Capex for H1 more than doubled to 1,230 million IDR

— On the portal's model, shares are fairly valued, upside 0%

Attractiveness

Key figures, IDR bn

H1 net profit rose 1.8%, but quarterly swings hide resilience

For H1 2026, Bank Central Asia's net profit was 29,545.6 million IDR, up 1.8% from 29,022.9 million IDR in the same period a year earlier. The growth is modest but steady when viewed on a half-year basis.

However, quarterly figures are highly volatile: in Q2 2026, net profit plunged 99.9% YoY to 14.7 million IDR, after a loss of 40,435.5 million IDR in Q4 2025. Such swings likely reflect one-off items, but the source document does not disclose them.

For shareholders, the half-year trend matters more: it shows the bank generates stable profit despite quarterly volatility.

Operating profit for H1 rose 1.8%, supported by higher fee income

Operating profit for H1 2026 was 36,451.8 million IDR, up 1.8% from 35,793.7 million IDR a year earlier. The growth was driven by a 9.7% increase in net fee and commission income to 10,334.5 million IDR.

Fee income is the second-largest source of operating income after interest. Its growth points to expanding transaction banking and higher client activity.

Other operating income also rose: net income from fair value transactions increased 12.6% to 2,047.1 million IDR, and other income rose 9.4% to 1,164.5 million IDR.

Net interest income nearly flat despite loan growth

Net interest and sharia income for H1 2026 was 42,512.6 million IDR, down 0.2% from 42,585.0 million IDR a year earlier. Meanwhile, the loan book expanded: net loans rose from 940,481.2 million IDR at end-2025 to 981,999.9 million IDR at 30 June 2026, or 4.4%.

Interest income rose 0.8% to 49,765.4 million IDR, but interest expense jumped 7.8% to 7,252.8 million IDR. Rising funding costs ate the benefit of loan growth.

This is typical for a bank in a rising-rate cycle: margins compress while deposit costs catch up with loan yields.

Impairment charges declined, supporting profit

Impairment losses on assets for H1 2026 were 1,984.7 million IDR, down 1.3% from 2,011.5 million IDR a year earlier. Lower provisioning is a positive signal for asset quality.

Allowances for loan losses rose from 29,752.0 million IDR at end-2025 to 30,705.9 million IDR at 30 June 2026, but proportionally to portfolio growth. The ratio of allowances to loans stayed around 3.1%.

Lower impairment charges helped offset pressure on net interest margin.

Dividend for 2025 was 36,985 million IDR, implying a 4.6% yield at current price

In H1 2026, Bank Central Asia paid dividends for 2025 of 36,985.1 million IDR. At the current market cap of 801,542.1 million IDR, this implies a yield of 4.6%.

The trailing twelve-month dividend yield is 5.8% – higher than the 2025 payout yield, reflecting larger distributions in earlier periods.

The bank pays generous dividends, but future payouts will depend on its ability to sustain earnings amid margin compression and rising capex.

Capex for H1 more than doubled to 1,230 million IDR

Capex for H1 2026 was 1,230.2 million IDR (acquisitions of fixed assets of 927.7 million IDR and right-of-use assets of 302.4 million IDR), more than double the 608.2 million IDR a year earlier.

The rise in capex reflects investments in digital infrastructure and branches. These are necessary to stay competitive but weigh on free cash flow.

Despite higher capex, operating cash flow remained positive at 32,262.0 million IDR for the half-year, covering investments and dividends.

On the portal's model, shares are fairly valued, upside 0%

Our financial model, based on annualised earnings relative to market cap, shows Bank Central Asia shares are fairly valued: upside to model fair value is 0%.

With ROE of 21.4% and a dividend yield of 5.8%, the shares look reasonably priced. The bank generates high returns, but the market has already priced this in.

The key question for investors is whether the bank can sustain ROE above 20% amid margin compression and rising technology costs.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

For H1 2026, Bank Central Asia delivered stable but modest results: net profit rose 1.8%, operating profit rose 1.8%, with fee income growing at double-digit rates. Pressure on net interest margin was offset by lower provisioning and higher non-interest income. The 2025 dividend provided a 4.6% yield, below the trailing 5.8%, but still attractive. On the portal's model, shares are fairly valued, upside 0%. Verdict – 'attractive': with ROE of 21.4% and a dividend yield of 5.8%, the shares offer reasonable returns, but further upside requires either earnings growth or lower rates.