GoTo: first profit in years, but 143x EBITDA is no longer about the money

Отчёт за первое полугодие 2026 года GoTo Gojek Tokopedia показал первую прибыль за годы: 423,3 млрд рупий против убытка 742,0 млрд годом ранее, выручка выросла до 10 994,1 млрд рупий. Но прибыль сделана не операциями, а прочими доходами — курсовой переоценкой и финансовыми статьями, а не бизнесом. При мультипликаторе EV/EBITDA LTM 143,9 и рентабельности EBITDA 10,7% акция выглядит нейтрально: разворот к прибыли есть, но цена уже учитывает гораздо больше, чем компания показывает.

Key takeaways

— Profit of 423.3 bn rupiah came from non-operating items, not from operations

— Revenue rose to 10,994.1 bn rupiah, but EBITDA margin is only 10.7%

— Operating cash flow of 1,724.4 bn rupiah is the only thing confirming the turnaround

— Net debt is negative, but EV/EBITDA LTM of 143.9 is detached from current earnings

— ROE of 2.9% at 143x EBITDA — the market is paying for the future, not the present

Attractiveness

Key figures, IDR bn

Profit of 423.3 bn rupiah came from non-operating items, not from operations

In the first half of 2026, GoTo reported a profit of 423.3 bn rupiah versus a loss of 742.0 bn rupiah a year earlier. This is the first positive result in years, and the market greeted it with gains. However, operating profit was only 781.9 bn rupiah, and net profit came in below operating profit due to tax and other items.

The key contribution to profit came not from sales but from non-operating income: foreign exchange gain of 315.1 bn rupiah, finance income of 328.3 bn rupiah, and other income of 17.3 bn rupiah. At the same time, finance costs were 388.3 bn rupiah, and the loss on fair value adjustment of financial instruments was 328.1 bn rupiah. Without the FX gain, profit would have been substantially lower.

In other words, the turnaround to profit currently rests on currency and financial operations, not on an improvement in the core business. This matters because the sustainability of such a result is limited: FX differences can reverse sign, and the fair value adjustment is already consuming 328.1 bn rupiah.

Revenue rose to 10,994.1 bn rupiah, but EBITDA margin is only 10.7%

Revenue for the first half of 2026 was 10,994.1 bn rupiah versus 8,559.0 bn rupiah a year earlier. Growth of 28.5% is a strong result, supported by all main areas: receipts from customers rose to 11,717.0 bn rupiah, and payments to suppliers increased to 3,194.1 bn rupiah.

However, EBITDA margin for the reporting period was only 10.7%, and net margin was 3.8%. This means the company still operates with low operational efficiency: for every rupiah of revenue, less than 11 kopecks of EBITDA are generated. For comparison, in the first half of 2025 the company was loss-making, so there is improvement, but the margin level remains modest.

The main pressure on margin comes from operating expenses: general and administrative expenses rose to 2,452.7 bn rupiah, sales and marketing expenses to 1,594.5 bn rupiah, and product development expenses to 1,018.1 bn rupiah. Total costs and expenses amounted to 10,212.2 bn rupiah, only slightly less than revenue.

Operating cash flow of 1,724.4 bn rupiah is the only thing confirming the turnaround

Operating cash flow for the first half of 2026 was 1,724.4 bn rupiah versus an outflow of 612.1 bn rupiah a year earlier. This is the most convincing sign of improvement: the company has started generating real money, not just accounting profit. Receipts from customers rose to 11,717.0 bn rupiah, covering all operating payments.

Importantly, cash flow is supported by growth in proceeds from users: the line 'Proceeds from Users net-off with payments to Merchants, Service Providers, and Lenders' contributed 833.9 bn rupiah versus an outflow of 396.2 bn rupiah a year earlier. This means the ecosystem has started working as a source of cash rather than a drain.

Nevertheless, part of this flow is provided by financing and lending to users: net outflow on this line was 1,379.1 bn rupiah. Excluding this area, operating cash flow would be even higher, but the lending business remains a significant consumer of funds. This limits the sustainability of the cash flow.

Net debt is negative, but EV/EBITDA LTM of 143.9 is detached from current earnings

Net debt at the latest reporting date was minus 14,012.5 bn rupiah, meaning the company has a net cash position. Net debt to EBITDA LTM is minus 0.04. This means there is no debt burden, and the company finances itself from its own funds. The change in net debt versus the previous reporting date is minus 0.3 bn rupiah, and over 12 months minus 1.5 bn rupiah.

However, the company's valuation looks extremely high: EV/EBITDA LTM is 143.9. With a market capitalisation of 53,304.6 bn rupiah and EBITDA LTM of 370.3 bn rupiah, the market is paying 143.9 times annual EBITDA. This means current earnings do not justify the price, and investors are pricing in future growth.

For comparison, the historical three-year average EV/EBITDA is not given in the facts, so it is impossible to say whether the current multiple is above or below its own history. But even without that, 143.9 is a very high level that requires either a sharp increase in EBITDA or continued low rates to justify.

ROE of 2.9% at 143x EBITDA — the market is paying for the future, not the present

Return on equity (ROE) over the last twelve months was 2.9%. This is a very low figure, indicating that the company is not yet efficiently using shareholders' capital. At the same time, equity stands at 28,980.9 bn rupiah, while accumulated losses are 214,737.6 bn rupiah, reflecting years of loss-making operations.

The market values the company at 53,304.6 bn rupiah, which is 1.8 times the book value of equity. Such a premium is only possible with expectations of future profit growth. However, current profit of 423.3 bn rupiah for the half-year does not even cover the cost of capital when risks are considered.

Thus, the GoTo investment case is built not on current financial results but on faith that the company can monetise its ecosystem and significantly increase EBITDA. For now, operating margin remains low, and profit depends on non-operating factors.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

GoTo reported a profit for the first time in years, and operating cash flow of 1,724.4 bn rupiah confirms that the business has started generating money. However, the profit of 423.3 bn rupiah came mainly from FX and financial income rather than operations, and EBITDA margin remains low at 10.7%. The valuation of 143.9x LTM EBITDA implies that the market is already pricing in future multiple profit growth that is not yet visible. At the current price, the stock looks neutral: the turnaround is there, but it has not yet become sustainable, and the multiple leaves no margin of safety.