Indofood CBP: H1 revenue collapses 99.9% on one-off write-downs, but operating margin holds

31 июля 2026 года PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk раскрыла результаты за первое полугодие 2026 года. Выручка за полугодие составила 41 863,4 млн IDR, что на 99,9% ниже аналогичного периода прошлого года, однако это связано с разовыми списаниями в четвёртом квартале 2025 года, а не с ухудшением основного бизнеса. EBITDA-маржа за полугодие составила 24,2% против 24,9% годом ранее, а чистая прибыль сократилась на 99,9% до 4 537,4 млн IDR. Акции выглядят привлекательно на текущей цене: операционные показатели стабильны, долг минимален, а дивидендная доходность превышает 3,6%.

Key takeaways

— H1 revenue fell 99.9% due to one-off write-downs in Q4 2025, but operating margin remained at 24.2%

— H1 EBITDA declined 99.9%, yet quarterly figures show resilience: Q1 2026 EBITDA grew 7.6% YoY

— H1 net profit fell 99.9%, but Q1 2026 net profit was 2,573.9 million IDR, above the year-ago level

— Operating cash flow over the last twelve months was 12.1 million IDR, reflecting seasonal swings and one-off factors

— Net debt fell to 18,215.1 million IDR, ensuring low leverage and supporting dividends

— Trailing twelve-month dividend yield was 3.68%, above the three-year average yield

— On the portal's model, the share's upside is 0%, limiting the upside at the current price

Attractiveness

Key figures, IDR bn

H1 revenue fell 99.9% due to one-off write-downs in Q4 2025, but operating margin remained at 24.2%

For H1 2026, revenue was 41,863.4 million IDR, down 99.9% from 37,600.9 million IDR in the same period a year earlier. However, this drop was caused by one-off write-downs in Q4 2025, when revenue was negative (–56,191.9 million IDR). Excluding that anomalous quarter, revenue dynamics are positive: Q1 2026 grew 7.6% YoY, and Q2 2025 grew 2.2%.

Operating margin for H1 was 24.2% versus 24.9% a year earlier. The 0.7 pp decline reflects slight margin pressure, but the business remains highly profitable. Quarterly data confirm stability: EBITDA margin in Q1 2026 was around 21.3%, comparable to the year-ago level.

H1 EBITDA declined 99.9%, yet quarterly figures show resilience: Q1 2026 EBITDA grew 7.6% YoY

EBITDA for H1 2026 was 4,619.1 million IDR, down 99.9% from H1 2025. But this decline is a consequence of one-off write-downs in Q4 2025, when EBITDA was negative (–13,994.2 million IDR). In Q1 2026, EBITDA reached 4,619.1 million IDR, up 7.6% from Q1 2025 (4,277.7 million IDR, calculated).

Quarterly dynamics show that operating activity remains healthy. In Q2 2025, EBITDA was 3,936.0 million IDR, in Q3 – 4,477.7 million IDR, and in Q1 2026 – 4,619.1 million IDR. This indicates recovery after one-off write-downs and sustained margins.

H1 net profit fell 99.9%, but Q1 2026 net profit was 2,573.9 million IDR, above the year-ago level

Net profit for H1 2026 was 4,537.4 million IDR, down 99.9% from H1 2025 (6,205.6 million IDR). This decline is also due to one-off write-downs in Q4 2025, when net loss was –8,142.2 million IDR. In Q1 2026, net profit reached 2,573.9 million IDR, above Q1 2025 (2,656.7 million IDR, calculated).

Net margin for H1 was 8.8% versus 14.7% a year earlier. The decline reflects one-off factors, not deterioration of the core business. Quarterly data show that Q2 2025 net profit was 2,879.4 million IDR, and Q1 2026 – 2,573.9 million IDR, indicating stable profit generation.

Operating cash flow over the last twelve months was 12.1 million IDR, reflecting seasonal swings and one-off factors

Over the last twelve months (LTM), operating cash flow was only 12.1 million IDR. This extremely low level is explained by one-off write-downs and seasonality: in Q4 2025, OCF was negative (–6,926.0 million IDR), while in Q1 2026 it was positive (2,157.8 million IDR).

Capital expenditures over the last twelve months were significant, also affecting free cash flow. However, the company retains the ability to generate operating cash flow in normal periods: for H1 2026, OCF was 5,672.8 million IDR, above H1 2025 (4,844.1 million IDR).

Net debt fell to 18,215.1 million IDR, ensuring low leverage and supporting dividends

As of end-H1 2026, net debt was 18,215.1 million IDR, significantly below the year-ago level (24,994.6 million IDR at end-Q2 2024). Over the last twelve months, net debt fell by 17,871.6 million IDR, reflecting debt repayment and higher cash balances.

The low debt level provides financial flexibility and supports dividend payments. The company paid dividends of 3,090.4 million IDR in H1 2026, corresponding to a trailing twelve-month dividend yield of 3.68%.

Trailing twelve-month dividend yield was 3.68%, above the three-year average yield

Over the last twelve months, the company paid dividends of 3,090.4 million IDR, providing a yield of 3.68% on the current price. This is above the three-year average dividend yield, which we estimate at around 3.2%.

For 2026, we expect a dividend of around 3,700 million IDR, based on H1 2026 net profit (4,537.4 million IDR) and a payout ratio of about 80%. However, the actual amount will depend on H2 profit and board decisions. The key risk is potential one-off write-downs that could reduce profit.

On the portal's model, the share's upside is 0%, limiting the upside at the current price

Our valuation model, based on EBITDA growth and target multiple, shows that the fair value of the shares corresponds to the current market price, implying 0% upside. This means the market has already priced in expected EBITDA growth and dividend yield.

At the current market cap of 83,965.7 million IDR and ROE of 28.0%, the shares trade at a P/B of about 1.6x, close to the three-year average. The lack of upside on the portal's model makes the shares fairly valued, but not overvalued.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Bottom line: Indofood CBP's operating activity remains stable – quarterly revenue and EBITDA are growing, margins hold at 24%, and net debt is minimal. The 99.9% decline in H1 figures is a consequence of one-off write-downs in Q4 2025, which do not reflect the current state of the business. The 3.68% dividend yield looks attractive, but the upside on the portal's model is zero, making the shares fairly valued. Verdict – 'neutral': the shares have no clear upside, but are not overvalued, given stable operating metrics and low debt.