Halyk: net profit down 15.3% on regulation, but shares still cheap

18 августа Halyk Bank раскрыл финансовые результаты за первое полугодие 2026 года. Чистая прибыль снизилась на 15,3% год к году до 447 567 млн тенге, а чистый процентный доход вырос лишь на 2,6% до 657 623 млн тенге. Давление на прибыль оказали новые требования к минимальным резервам, ужесточение регулирования розничного кредитования и рост стоимости фондирования. При этом акции торгуются с P/E 4,1 и дивидендной доходностью 13,2%, что делает их привлекательными на текущем уровне.

Key takeaways

— Net profit fell 15.3% in H1 on higher reserve requirements and funding costs

— Net interest income rose only 2.6%: interest expense ate the income growth

— Fee income fell 19.6% on BNPL regulation and VAT pass-through to clients

— Cost of risk stayed at 1.4%, but provisions jumped 69.1%

— Equity grew 4.1% YTD, capital adequacy remains high

— Shares trade at P/E 4.1 and dividend yield 13.2%, portal model shows +22% upside

Attractiveness

Key figures, KZT bn

Net profit fell 15.3% in H1 on higher reserve requirements and funding costs

In H1 2026, Halyk Bank's net profit stood at KZT 447,567 million, down 15.3% year-on-year. The main drivers were higher minimum reserve requirements, tighter retail lending regulation, and an increase in the average interest rate on customer deposits while loan rates stayed flat.

In Q2 2026, net profit fell 16.1% YoY to KZT 212,759 million. Pressure persists, but the pace of decline slowed from Q1, when profit dropped 14.6%.

Net interest income rose only 2.6%: interest expense ate the income growth

Interest income rose 12.2% to KZT 1,446,153 million in H1, driven by higher average loan balances. But interest expense jumped 21.6% to KZT 788,530 million on higher average rates and customer deposit volumes, plus a larger share of tenge deposits.

As a result, net interest income grew only 2.6% to KZT 657,623 million. Net interest margin fell to 6.8% from 7.3% a year earlier; adjusted for the new reserve requirements, it would have been 7.2%.

Fee income fell 19.6% on BNPL regulation and VAT pass-through to clients

Net fee and commission income fell 19.6% to KZT 54,513 million in H1. The decline was driven by negative dynamics in BNPL transactional income amid tighter underwriting following regulatory changes, as well as the gradual pass-through of VAT on certain banking services to clients.

Q2 was more encouraging: net fee income rose 18.4% from Q1 2026, suggesting a possible recovery.

Cost of risk stayed at 1.4%, but provisions jumped 69.1%

Expected credit loss expense jumped 69.1% to KZT 104,029 million in H1. Cost of risk on customer loans stayed at a normalized 1.4% p.a., in line with the bank's full-year guidance.

Stage 3 loans rose to 8.6% by end-H1, driven by the continuing moratorium on selling problem retail loans to collection agencies and slower retail portfolio growth.

Equity grew 4.1% YTD, capital adequacy remains high

Total equity reached KZT 3,643,116 million by end-June 2026, up 4.1% YTD on earned profit. Capital adequacy ratios (k1-1, k1-2, k2) on a standalone basis stood at 19.0%, well above the 12% minimum.

Total assets rose 5.4% YTD to KZT 22,036,296 million, net loan portfolio grew 1.2% to KZT 13,265,697 million.

Shares trade at P/E 4.1 and dividend yield 13.2%, portal model shows +22% upside

Trailing twelve-month net profit was KZT 1,018,212 million, giving a P/E of just 4.1 on a market cap of KZT 4,218,479 million. ROE is 24.2%, and the trailing dividend yield is 13.2%.

On the portal's model, which compares ROE to P/B, the share has +22% upside to fair value. The stock is held in the 'KZ Fundamental potential (AI)' strategy on the portal.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Halyk остаётся высокорентабельным банком с ROE 24,2% и сильной капитальной позицией, но регуляторное давление заметно снизило темпы роста прибыли. Чистый процентный доход растёт медленно, комиссии падают, а стоимость риска остаётся повышенной. Тем не менее акции торгуются с P/E 4,1 и дивидендной доходностью 13,2%, что выглядит привлекательно на фоне исторических значений. Ключевой вопрос – когда регуляторное давление ослабнет и банк вернётся к двузначному росту прибыли.