Halyk: net profit down 15.3% as NIM compresses on reserve requirements and regulation

18 августа Halyk Bank раскрыл результаты за первое полугодие 2026 года: чистая прибыль упала на 15,3% год к году до 447,6 млрд тенге, а чистый процентный доход вырос лишь на 2,6% до 657,6 млрд тенге. Давление на маржу оказали новые нормативы минимальных резервных требований и ужесточение регулирования розничного кредитования. При текущей цене акция выглядит привлекательно: мультипликатор P/E LTM 4,1, дивидендная доходность 13,2%, а модель портала оценивает потенциал роста в +22%.

Key takeaways

— Чистый процентный доход за полугодие вырос лишь на 2,6% из-за роста стоимости фондирования

— Чистая прибыль сократилась на 15,3%: давление резервных требований и регулирования

— Комиссионный доход упал на 19,6% из-за регулирования BNPL и перекладывания НДС на клиентов

— Стоимость риска осталась на нормализованном уровне 1,4%, резервы растут из-за моратория на продажу проблемных кредитов

— Капитал банка достаточный: k1-1 19,0% при минимуме 9,5%, ROE 24,2%

— P/E LTM 4,1 и дивидендная доходность 13,2% делают акцию дешёвой, модель портала даёт +22% upside

Attractiveness

Key figures, KZT bn

Net interest income for the half-year rose only 2.6% due to higher funding costs

Interest income for the first half of 2026 rose 12.2% year-on-year to KZT 1,446.2bn, but interest expense jumped 21.6% to KZT 788.5bn. The bank attributes this to higher average rates and balances on customer accounts, as well as a larger share of KZT deposits. As a result, net interest income grew only 2.6% to KZT 657.6bn.

Net interest margin declined to 6.8% from 7.3% a year earlier. The bank links this to new minimum reserve requirement coefficients; without this effect, NIM would have been 7.2%. In Q2 2026, NIM was 6.7% versus 7.1% in Q2 2025.

Net profit fell 15.3%: pressure from reserve requirements and regulation

Net profit for the first half of 2026 was KZT 447.6bn, 15.3% lower than the same period last year. The bank explicitly cites higher minimum reserve requirements, tighter retail lending regulation, and an increase in the average rate on customer deposits while the average loan rate stayed flat.

Return on average equity for the half-year fell to 24.8% per annum from 33.6% a year earlier, but remains high. For the trailing twelve months, ROE is 24.2%.

Fee income fell 19.6% due to BNPL regulation and VAT pass-through to clients

Net fee and commission income for the half-year fell 19.6% year-on-year to KZT 54.5bn. The bank attributes this to negative dynamics in BNPL transactional income amid tighter underwriting due to regulatory changes, as well as the gradual pass-through of VAT on certain banking services to clients.

In Q2 2026, net fee income rose 18.4% versus Q1, suggesting the decline may be slowing. Still, for the half-year, the fee line remains a drag on overall results.

Cost of risk stayed at a normalized 1.4%, provisions rise due to moratorium on selling problem loans

Expected credit loss expense for the half-year rose 69.1% to KZT 104.0bn, but the cost of risk on loans to customers stayed at a normalized 1.4% per annum, same as a year earlier. The bank notes that provisions are in line with its full-year guidance.

Stage 3 loans increased to 8.6% at the end of the half-year. The reason is the continuing moratorium on selling problem retail loans to collection agencies, as well as lower retail portfolio growth. This means asset quality formally deteriorates, but the bank cannot offload problem debt from its balance sheet.

Bank capital is ample: k1-1 19.0% versus a 9.5% minimum, ROE 24.2%

As of end-June 2026, Halyk Bank's capital adequacy (unconsolidated) stood at 19.0% for k1-1, k1-2 and k2, against minimum requirements of 9.5%, 10.5% and 12%, respectively. This gives the bank a significant buffer for growth and dividend payments.

Total equity rose 4.1% over the half-year to KZT 3,643.1bn, driven by earned profit. Return on equity for the trailing twelve months is 24.2%, still a high level for the banking sector.

P/E LTM 4.1 and dividend yield 13.2% make the share cheap, portal model gives +22% upside

With a market cap of KZT 4,218.5bn and trailing twelve-month net profit of KZT 1,018.2bn, P/E LTM is 4.1. This is a low multiple for a bank with ROE of 24.2% and a dividend yield of 13.2% over the trailing twelve months.

Our portal model estimates the share's upside to fair value at +22%. This is the portal's own calculation, not a market consensus. The share is held in our model strategies 'KZ Fundamental potential (AI)', reflecting its attractiveness by our criteria.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Halyk's results for the first half of 2026 reflect a tougher regulatory environment: net profit fell 15.3% and net interest margin shrank to 6.8% due to new reserve requirements. Still, the bank maintains high return on equity (24.2% over twelve months) and a strong balance sheet with capital adequacy of 19.0% versus a 9.5% minimum. The share trades at P/E LTM of 4.1 with a dividend yield of 13.2%, which looks cheap, and the portal model implies +22% upside. The key question for holders is whether the bank can adapt to the new regulatory conditions and restore profit growth; if pressure persists, the current valuation may be justified.