Kaspi.kz: revenue grows 15%, but profit is flat — money goes to Turkey and deposit costs

On August 10, Kaspi.kz reported Q2 2026 results: revenue grew 15% YoY to KZT 1.1 trillion, adjusted EBITDA rose 13.5%, and net profit was nearly flat (-0.7%). At the current price, the share looks attractive: P/E LTM is 8.7 with ROE 37.9%, and the portal's model implies about 9% upside.

Key takeaways

— Revenue +15% YoY, but net profit -0.7%: growth eaten by deposit costs and Turkey investments

— e-Commerce remains the main driver: GMV +28% in constant currency, revenue +35% on ads and delivery

— Fintech: average loan portfolio +18%, but funding costs +150 bps eat EBITDA growth

— Payments: TPV +13%, but revenue +5% — take rate declines, Kaspi Alaqan investments pressure EBITDA

— Dividend raised 18% to KZT 1,000 per ADS — company shares cash despite growth costs

— Kasper — AI assistant: early metrics strong, but monetization unclear

— P/E 8.7 and ROE 37.9%: share is cheap if growth continues, but Turkey and rates are key risks

Attractiveness

Key figures, KZT bn

Revenue +15% YoY, but net profit -0.7%: growth eaten by deposit costs and Turkey investments

In Q2 2026, Kaspi.kz revenue grew 15% YoY to KZT 1.1 trillion. Growth was driven by e-Commerce, fintech, and payments, but net profit was nearly flat: KZT 256.7 billion versus KZT 258.6 billion a year earlier. The reason is higher interest expenses on deposits and losses from the Turkish business Hepsiburada.

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter grew 13.5% to KZT 618.8 billion, but net profit margin fell from 26.7% to 23.3%. The company cites higher funding costs and investments in Turkey, where it completed the acquisition of Rabobank A.Ş. and rebranded it as Hepsi Bank.

e-Commerce remains the main driver: GMV +28% in constant currency, revenue +35% on ads and delivery

In constant currency, e-Commerce GMV grew 28% YoY to KZT 1.3 trillion, purchases rose 33%. Purchases per consumer increased from 11.6 to 15.8 on an annualized basis. This indicates growing engagement, not just new customer acquisition.

Monetization is accelerating: value-added services revenue (ads and delivery) grew 49% in constant currency, lifting total e-Commerce revenue by 35% to KZT 394 billion. The 3P take rate rose 160 bps YoY to 16.1%.

Fintech: average loan portfolio +18%, but funding costs +150 bps eat EBITDA growth

Average net loan portfolio grew 18% YoY in Q2 to KZT 7.3 trillion. Fintech revenue rose 23% to KZT 455 billion, helped by a shift to longer-duration loans: average portfolio duration increased from 7.7 to 9.0 months.

However, funding costs jumped 150 bps to 14.5% due to rate hikes in Kazakhstan last year. As a result, fintech adjusted EBITDA grew only 6% to KZT 171 billion. The company cut rates on 3-month deposits by 100 bps in August, which should support margins in H2.

Payments: TPV +13%, but revenue +5% — take rate declines, Kaspi Alaqan investments pressure EBITDA

Payments TPV grew 13% YoY to KZT 12.7 trillion, but segment revenue rose only 5% to KZT 169 billion. Take rate declined from 1.07% to 1.00% due to product mix changes, consistent with long-term trends.

Payments adjusted EBITDA fell 1% to KZT 98 billion due to higher technology costs for Kaspi Alaqan, a pay-by-palm system. This is a deliberate investment in future growth, but it currently pressures margins.

Dividend raised 18% to KZT 1,000 per ADS — company shares cash despite growth costs

The Board proposed raising the quarterly dividend by 18% to KZT 1,000 per ADS from KZT 850 in Q1 2026. This reflects management's confidence in long-term prospects despite Turkey investments and profit pressure.

Trailing 12-month dividend yield is 3.5%. The company generates enough cash for payouts, although capex in Q2 rose to KZT 56.4 billion.

Kasper — AI assistant: early metrics strong, but monetization unclear

In July, Kaspi.kz began rolling out Kasper, a personal AI shopping assistant. In the first month, about 20% of consumers to whom it was available used it. Roughly 80% of conversations produce a product recommendation, and 60% of those lead to a specific product.

Kasper is not yet directly monetized but should boost engagement and conversion in e-Commerce. The company sees it as the next chapter of its ecosystem, but the financial impact will likely not be visible before 2027.

P/E 8.7 and ROE 37.9%: share is cheap if growth continues, but Turkey and rates are key risks

With a market cap of KZT 9.3 trillion and LTM net profit of KZT 1.07 trillion, P/E is 8.7. Return on equity is 37.9%, indicating high business efficiency.

The portal's model implies +9% upside to fair value. The share trades cheaply relative to its own history, but the discount is justified by risks: rising funding costs, uncertainty in Turkey, and AI-related spending.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Kaspi.kz continues to grow revenue at double-digit rates, and e-Commerce remains a powerful engine: GMV +28%, revenue +35% in constant currency. However, net profit has been flat for the second consecutive quarter: growth is eaten by interest expenses and Turkish investments. The dividend was raised 18%, signaling management confidence, but the question for shareholders is when Turkey will start contributing profit rather than burning cash. At P/E 8.7 and ROE 37.9%, the share looks attractive if growth resumes; key risks are rates and the timeline to breakeven in Turkey.