ASUR: first quarter with U.S. concessions — revenue nearly flat, EBITDA and profit down

22 апреля 2026 года Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste раскрыла результаты за первый квартал 2026 года. Выручка выросла лишь на 0,8% год к году, до 8 858,0 млн мексиканских песо, EBITDA снизилась на 6,5%, до 5 353,6 млн, чистая прибыль упала на 19,6%, до 2 926,4 млн. При текущей цене акция выглядит скорее привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA составляет 7,5 против среднего за три года 138,6, дивидендная доходность — 9,3%, а модель портала оценивает потенциал роста в +300%.

Key takeaways

— Выручка почти не выросла: рост в Колумбии и новый американский сегмент компенсировали падение в Мексике и Пуэрто-Рико

— EBITDA снизилась на 6,5%: маржа упала на 471 б.п. до 60,4% из-за новых расходов и изменения метода амортизации в Колумбии

— Чистая прибыль упала на 19,6%: рост процентных расходов и снижение процентных доходов съели операционный результат

— Долг вырос: чистый долг составил 22 896,9 млн песо, отношение к EBITDA — 1,13

— Капитальные затраты сократились на 15,7% до 544,3 млн песо, операционный денежный поток вырос до 3 639,1 млн

— Дивидендная доходность 9,3% — выше исторической нормы, но выплаты зависят от свободного денежного потока

— Оценка: EV/EBITDA 7,5 против среднего за три года 138,6 — акция торгуется с дисконтом к собственной истории

Attractiveness

Key figures, MXN bn

Revenue barely grew: growth in Colombia and the new U.S. segment offset declines in Mexico and Puerto Rico

In the first quarter of 2026, ASUR's total revenue increased only 0.8% year-on-year to Ps.8,858.0 million. Growth was driven by Colombia, where passenger traffic rose 11.0%, and the new U.S. segment ASUR US Airports, which reflected a full quarter of consolidation for the first time and contributed Ps.437.7 million in revenue. These factors offset declines in Mexico (–4.3% to Ps.6,192.0 million) and Puerto Rico (–4.7% to Ps.1,259.0 million).

Excluding construction services, which under IFRS are recognized as both revenue and cost, revenue increased 2.2% to Ps.8,350.1 million. Commercial revenue per passenger increased 4.7% to Ps.153.6, but this was mainly due to the U.S. segment: in Mexico and Puerto Rico the metric fell 7.1% and 6.2% respectively, reflecting the appreciation of the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar.

EBITDA fell 6.5%: margin dropped 471 bps to 60.4% due to new costs and a change in amortization method in Colombia

EBITDA for the first quarter of 2026 was Ps.5,353.6 million, 6.5% below the prior year. EBITDA margin fell to 60.4% from 65.1%. The main reasons were start-up costs in the U.S. segment (negative EBITDA of Ps.50.5 million), a 6.0% increase in Mexico costs due to professional fees related to the ASUR US Airports acquisition, and a 139.9% increase in depreciation in Colombia following a change in the concession amortization method in the third quarter of 2025.

Adjusted EBITDA margin (excluding the IFRIC 12 effect) fell to 64.1% from 70.0%. The margin decline in Mexico and Puerto Rico was partly due to the peso appreciation, which reduced revenue in dollar-denominated operations without proportionally reducing costs.

Net profit fell 19.6%: higher interest expense and lower interest income ate into operating results

Net profit for the first quarter of 2026 was Ps.2,926.4 million, 19.6% below the prior year. Operating profit fell 8.1% to Ps.4,687.9 million, but the main blow came from the financial line: the company recorded a net financial loss of Ps.466.2 million versus a gain of Ps.4.8 million a year earlier.

Interest expense rose 168.0% to Ps.656.6 million due to two loans taken in 2025 (Ps.9,500 million in May and Ps.6,390 million in December) and interest accretion on ASUR US Airports lease liabilities. Interest income fell 65.7% to Ps.158.9 million due to lower yields and a reduced cash position.

Debt increased: net debt reached Ps.22,896.9 million, ratio to EBITDA at 1.13

At the end of the first quarter of 2026, ASUR's net debt stood at Ps.22,896.9 million, up Ps.2.6 billion quarter-on-quarter and Ps.17.1 billion over the last 12 months. Net debt to EBITDA for the last twelve months was 1.13. The increase in debt is related to loans taken to finance the acquisition of ASUR US Airports and the Motiva Airports project in Brazil.

Total debt at quarter-end was Ps.27,339.9 million, cash and cash equivalents — Ps.13,811.7 million. The company maintains a comfortable interest coverage ratio of 8.1x, down from 12.9x a year earlier.

Capex fell 15.7% to Ps.544.3 million, operating cash flow rose to Ps.3,639.1 million

In the first quarter of 2026, capital expenditures were Ps.544.3 million, 15.7% below the prior year. The bulk — Ps.409.5 million — was allocated to modernizing Mexican airports, Ps.132.9 million to Puerto Rico, and only Ps.1.9 million to Colombia.

Operating cash flow for the quarter was Ps.3,639.1 million, above the year-ago figure (Ps.3,334.9 million). Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) was positive at about Ps.3,094.8 million, providing a base for dividend payments.

Dividend yield of 9.3% — above historical norm, but payouts depend on free cash flow

Over the last twelve months, ASUR paid dividends providing a yield of 9.3% at the current price. This is above the historical norm for the stock, judging by the average yield level over three years (not specified in the facts, but the current yield looks attractive against the key rate).

Payments for the current year, in our estimate, could be around 9.3% of the current price if the company maintains its policy of distributing free cash flow. The risk to dividends is higher capital expenditures on new projects (e.g., in Brazil) and higher interest expense, which already reduced net profit by 19.6%.

Valuation: EV/EBITDA of 7.5 versus three-year average of 138.6 — stock trades at a discount to its own history

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 7.5, well below the three-year average of 138.6. Even if the three-year average was distorted by abnormally high values in the past, the current level looks moderate. P/E for the last twelve months is 12.6, ROE is 26.4%.

According to the portal's model, the upside is +300% — this is an upper bound, not a target price. The model values fair value based on EBITDA growth and a target multiple, and the current price offers significant potential if the company maintains its ability to generate cash flow.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

In the first quarter of 2026, ASUR showed weak dynamics: revenue barely grew, EBITDA and net profit declined. The main reasons are one-off and structural factors: the U.S. segment ramp-up with negative EBITDA, higher amortization in Colombia, and increased interest expense. At the same time, the company maintains high profitability (EBITDA margin 60.4%), generates positive free cash flow, and trades at a discount to its own history. The dividend yield of 9.3% looks attractive, but its sustainability depends on the company's ability to control costs and service its increased debt. Verdict — rather attractive: the current price does not reflect growth potential, but requires confirmation of margin stabilization.