Grupo Bimbo: peso sales fell, but EBITDA margin hit a record – helped by one-off stake sale

On April 29, Grupo Bimbo reported first-quarter 2026 results. Peso revenue fell 3.3% year on year to 100,319 million due to FX translation, while on a currency-neutral basis it rose 4.8%. Adjusted EBITDA grew 9.5%, and the margin reached a record 14.0% versus 12.4% a year earlier, but about a third of the profit increase came from the sale of a minority stake in an associated company in Mexico. At the current price, the share looks rather attractive: the P/E of 12.0 is below its three-year average, and leverage is declining.

Key takeaways

— Peso revenue fell 3.3%, but on a currency-neutral basis it rose 4.8% – a record for a first quarter

— EBITDA margin reached a record 14.0% – helped by the sale of a minority stake in Mexico

— Net profit rose 33.4% – largely thanks to a one-off gain from the stake sale

— Free cash flow came in at 7,428 million pesos – 4,633 million more than a year earlier

— Net debt fell to 137,986 million pesos, and the Net Debt/EBITDA ratio improved to 2.5x

— P/E of 12.0 – below its three-year average, dividend yield 1.9%

Attractiveness

Key figures, MXN bn

Peso revenue fell 3.3%, but on a currency-neutral basis it rose 4.8% – a record for a first quarter

In the first quarter of 2026, Grupo Bimbo's revenue came in at 100,319 million pesos, 3.3% below a year earlier. The decline is entirely explained by FX translation: on a currency-neutral basis, sales rose 4.8% and set a record for a first quarter. Growth was driven by favorable price/mix, positive volume trends, and the contribution from recent acquisitions.

The regional picture is mixed. Mexico posted record quarterly sales of 39,726 million pesos, up 4.5% year on year. In North America, peso revenue fell 13.0% due to exchange rates, but on a constant-currency basis it rose 0.7% – a return to growth. EAA and Latin America grew 12.6% and 15.1% on a constant-currency basis, also reaching record levels.

EBITDA margin reached a record 14.0% – helped by the sale of a minority stake in Mexico

Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter rose 9.5% year on year to 14,036 million pesos, and the margin expanded 160 basis points to 14.0% – a record for a first quarter. On a currency-neutral basis, EBITDA grew 15.2%. The company explicitly attributes part of the improvement to the sale of a minority stake in an associated company in Mexico – the gain was recognized within other items.

Operating profit rose 17.4% in pesos and 18.4% excluding FX, with the margin expanding 140 basis points to 7.9%. Besides the one-off gain, record productivity in North America, where the transformation program continues to deliver savings, and lower restructuring costs helped. In Mexico, the EBITDA margin reached a record 20.5%; in EAA, 8.8%, also a record for a first quarter.

Net profit rose 33.4% – largely thanks to a one-off gain from the stake sale

Net profit for the first quarter came in at 2,362 million pesos, 33.4% above a year earlier. The margin expanded 70 basis points to 2.4%. The company attributes the profit growth to the sale of the minority stake in Mexico, strong sales, and solid operating results, partially offset by higher income tax and increased financing costs.

Financing costs rose 6.6% to 3,462 million pesos – mainly due to an exchange rate loss on hedging instruments. Interest expenses, in contrast, fell 1.2% thanks to lower debt and a stronger peso. The effective tax rate declined, but the absolute tax amount rose 25% due to higher pre-tax profit.

Free cash flow came in at 7,428 million pesos – 4,633 million more than a year earlier

In the first quarter of 2026, Grupo Bimbo generated 7,428 million pesos of free cash flow – 4,633 million more than in the first quarter of 2025. Operating cash flow came in at 15,111 million pesos, and capital expenditures at 2,743 million pesos. The company attributes the improvement to strong cash generation during the quarter.

The rise in free cash flow is an important signal: it shows that operational efficiency and lower restructuring costs are converting into cash, not just paper profit. It also provides a cushion for debt service and acquisitions, which the company continues to make – for example, it recently completed the acquisition of Bonel in Tunisia.

Net debt fell to 137,986 million pesos, and the Net Debt/EBITDA ratio improved to 2.5x

As of the end of March 2026, net debt stood at 137,986 million pesos, down from 143,460 million a year earlier and 145 billion at the end of December 2025. The quarterly decline of about 7 billion pesos the company attributes to strong cash generation, despite higher total debt. The Net Debt/Adjusted EBITDA ratio (excluding IFRS 16) improved to 2.5x from 2.7x at the end of December and 2.9x a year earlier.

The debt structure remains conservative: average maturity of 9.8 years, average cost of 6.45%, 97% of debt is long-term. The currency mix is diversified: 43% in dollars, 41% in pesos, the rest in euros, Canadian dollars, and pounds. The decline in leverage is a positive factor for shareholders, as it reduces interest expenses and increases resilience to monetary tightening.

P/E of 12.0 – below its three-year average, dividend yield 1.9%

Grupo Bimbo's market capitalization stands at 241,668 million pesos. With trailing-twelve-month profit of 20,143 million pesos, the P/E ratio is 12.0 – below its three-year average, though the comparable EV/EBITDA multiple (6.9) is roughly at its historical level. The trailing dividend yield is 1.9%.

Given declining debt and rising free cash flow, the valuation does not look stretched. However, investors should remember that part of the reported profit is one-off, and without it the multiple would be somewhat higher. Return on equity (ROE) is 7.5% – a moderate level for a global food company.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The first-quarter 2026 report is strong in quality: currency-neutral revenue is growing at record pace, the EBITDA margin reached an all-time high, free cash flow nearly doubled, and leverage declined. However, part of the margin and profit improvement came from a one-off sale of a minority stake in Mexico – without it, growth would have been more modest. At a P/E of 12.0, below its three-year average, and a dividend yield of 1.9%, the share looks rather attractive for a long-term holder, but the key question is whether the company can sustain record margins without one-off gains and amid currency volatility.