Grupo Carso: revenue falls for a fourth straight quarter, yet net debt drops to 0.61x EBITDA

10 мая 2026 года Grupo Carso раскрыла результаты за первый квартал 2026 года: выручка снизилась на 4,3% год к году до 44 107 млн мексиканских песо, EBITDA – на 10,3% до 2 951 млн, чистая прибыль – на 6,6% до 1 524 млн. На этом фоне компания продолжает сокращать долг: чистый долг на конец квартала составил 17 544 млн песо против 31 506 млн годом ранее. Акции торгуются с мультипликатором EV/EBITDA 13,2 против среднего за три года 11,3, что выглядит дорого, но модель портала оценивает потенциал роста в +9%. Вердикт: скорее привлекательно – компания генерирует стабильный денежный поток и снижает долговую нагрузку, хотя выручка и маржинальность пока слабые.

Key takeaways

— Revenue in Q1 2026 fell 4.3% YoY – the fourth consecutive quarter of decline

— EBITDA dropped 10.3% to MXN 2,951 million, with margin down to 6.7% from 7.1% a year earlier

— Net profit declined 6.6% to MXN 1,524 million, but excluding one-offs the fall would have been smaller

— Operating cash flow turned negative in Q1 – minus MXN 358 million, mainly due to working capital buildup

— Net debt fell to MXN 17,544 million, with the ratio to 12-month EBITDA at 0.61

— Capex in Q1 almost doubled to MXN 3,189 million, pressuring free cash flow

— Trailing 12-month dividend yield is 1.09%, below the key rate, but the company retains room to raise payouts

Attractiveness

Key figures, MXN bn

Revenue in Q1 2026 fell 4.3% YoY – the fourth consecutive quarter of decline

In Q1 2026, Grupo Carso's revenue was MXN 44,107 million, down 4.3% YoY. This continues the negative trend: in Q4 2025 the decline was 7.1%, and in Q1 2025 it was flat. Thus, the company has failed to return to growth for four consecutive quarters.

The revenue decline comes amid weak economic activity in Mexico and likely reflects lower demand in retail and industrial segments. The report does not disclose segment revenue, so precise drivers are not visible, but the overall picture points to continued pressure on sales.

EBITDA dropped 10.3% to MXN 2,951 million, with margin down to 6.7% from 7.1% a year earlier

EBITDA for Q1 2026 was MXN 2,951 million, down 10.3% from the same period last year. EBITDA margin fell to 6.7% from 7.1% – the company could not fully offset the revenue decline with cost cuts.

Operating profit matched EBITDA (MXN 2,951 million), indicating no significant depreciation in operating profit – likely due to accounting specifics. The margin decline reflects pricing pressure and cost structure, but without segment detail it is hard to pinpoint which areas suffered.

Net profit declined 6.6% to MXN 1,524 million, but excluding one-offs the fall would have been smaller

Net profit attributable to parent shareholders in Q1 2026 was MXN 1,524 million versus MXN 1,631 million a year earlier – a 6.6% decline. However, the report shows one-off items: a loss from discontinued operations of MXN 153 million versus a profit of MXN 282 million a year earlier.

Excluding discontinued operations, profit from continuing operations would have been approximately MXN 1,677 million, only 0.4% lower than a year earlier. Thus, core operations remain stable, and the net profit decline is mainly due to one-offs.

Operating cash flow turned negative in Q1 – minus MXN 358 million, mainly due to working capital buildup

Operating cash flow in Q1 2026 was minus MXN 358 million versus plus MXN 416 million a year earlier. The main reason was an increase in receivables and inventories, along with lower payables – the company invested in working capital.

Negative operating cash flow in Q1 is not uncommon for Mexican companies due to seasonality, but combined with higher capex it pressures free cash flow. Over the trailing twelve months, operating cash flow remains strong at MXN 31,100 million, confirming the company's ability to generate cash over the longer term.

Net debt fell to MXN 17,544 million, with the ratio to 12-month EBITDA at 0.61

At the end of Q1 2026, net debt stood at MXN 17,544 million versus MXN 31,506 million at the end of Q1 2025 – a 44% decline over the year. During the quarter, debt decreased by MXN 14.0 billion (in ruble equivalent), reflecting active repayment.

The ratio of net debt to EBITDA for the trailing twelve months is 0.61 – a low level that gives the company significant financial flexibility. The company continues to reduce debt despite weak revenue dynamics, supporting its credit profile.

Capex in Q1 almost doubled to MXN 3,189 million, pressuring free cash flow

Capex in Q1 2026 was MXN 3,189 million versus MXN 1,732 million a year earlier – an 84% increase. The company increased investments in property, plant and equipment, likely as part of an expansion or modernization strategy.

Higher capex combined with negative operating cash flow led to negative free cash flow for the quarter. However, over the trailing twelve months, operating cash flow (MXN 31,100 million) significantly exceeds capex, allowing the company to fund investments and dividends without increasing debt.

Trailing 12-month dividend yield is 1.09%, below the key rate, but the company retains room to raise payouts

Over the trailing twelve months, the company paid dividends corresponding to a yield of 1.09% on current market capitalization. This is below the key rate, making the shares less attractive for income-oriented investors.

However, with net debt at 0.61x EBITDA and stable operating cash flow, the company has room to increase dividends in the future. In Q1 2026, dividends of MXN 49 million were paid – small but confirming willingness to share profits.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Grupo Carso reported Q1 2026 with expected declines in revenue and EBITDA, but net profit fell less thanks to the absence of major one-off losses. The company continues to reduce debt, with net debt to 12-month EBITDA at just 0.61 – a solid foundation for financial stability. However, negative operating cash flow and higher capex in the quarter warrant attention, though over 12 months cash flow remains strong. The shares trade at a premium to their own history, but the portal model shows +9% upside. Verdict: rather attractive – at the current price, the investor pays for a quality balance sheet and stable cash flow, but not for revenue growth.