FEMSA: profit nearly tripled, but without the one-off deal it would have fallen by a third

30 апреля FEMSA раскрыла результаты за первый квартал 2026 года. Выручка выросла на 6,1%, до 207 784 млн песо, EBITDA – на 11,2%, до 28 127 млн, а чистая прибыль – на 155,4%, до 14 826 млн песо. Однако почти весь прирост прибыли обеспечила разовая сделка по объединению BradyPLUS и Imperial Dade: без неё чистая прибыль упала бы на 36,4%. При текущей цене акция выглядит скорее привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA ниже собственной трёхлетней средней, а модель портала даёт потенциал роста на 17%.

Key takeaways

— Revenue growth of 6.1% was driven by OXXO Mexico and Americas & Mobility, while Europe and Health were nearly flat

— EBITDA margin expanded by 60 bps to 13.5% on operating leverage and cost control

— Net profit rose 155.4%, but excluding the one-off gain from the BradyPLUS/Imperial Dade merger it would have fallen 36.4%

— Net debt/EBITDA of 0.2x LTM remains minimal despite dividend payments and buybacks

— Capex fell 29.5% to Ps. 6,195 million, supporting free cash flow

— OXXO Mexico grew operating income 20.9% on revenue growth of 8.3%

— Spin active users grew 22.3%, and OXXO Mexico average ticket rose 6.6%

Attractiveness

Key figures, MXN bn

Revenue growth of 6.1% was driven by OXXO Mexico and Americas & Mobility, while Europe and Health were nearly flat

In the first quarter of 2026, FEMSA's consolidated revenue grew 6.1% year-on-year to Ps. 207,784 million. The main driver was OXXO Mexico, with sales up 8.3% to Ps. 74,424 million, helped by 6.0% same-store sales growth and 3.8% store expansion. Americas & Mobility added 12.9% to Ps. 24,988 million, driven by a 7.5% increase in fuel sales and a 36.6% jump in merchandise sales.

Europe and Health were nearly flat, at +0.1% and +0.9%, respectively. Europe was held back by a 2.7% decline in same-store sales, while Health suffered from the closure of 335 stores over the last twelve months. On a comparable basis, excluding currency effects and changes in business composition, revenue growth was 8.5%.

EBITDA margin expanded by 60 bps to 13.5% on operating leverage and cost control

EBITDA for the first quarter grew 11.2% year-on-year to Ps. 28,127 million, with the EBITDA margin expanding 60 basis points to 13.5% from 12.9% a year earlier. The main contributors were OXXO Mexico, where the EBITDA margin rose 180 bps to 14.2%, and Americas & Mobility, where operating income grew 34.0%.

Consolidated operating income rose 5.5% to Ps. 14,314 million, with the operating margin stable at 6.9%. On a comparable basis, operating income increased 12.1%, reflecting the strength of local currencies outside Mexico. At OXXO Mexico, the operating margin expanded 80 bps to 7.6% on higher gross margin and efficiencies.

Net profit rose 155.4%, but excluding the one-off gain from the BradyPLUS/Imperial Dade merger it would have fallen 36.4%

Net profit for the first quarter of 2026 was Ps. 14,826 million versus Ps. 5,805 million a year earlier, up 155.4%. However, this growth is almost entirely explained by a one-off non-cash gain from the BradyPLUS and Imperial Dade merger, which closed on March 12, 2026. Excluding this effect, net profit would have been Ps. 5,688 million, down 36.4% from the prior year.

The decline excluding the one-off gain is due to higher net financing expenses: a negative foreign exchange result versus a gain a year earlier (–Ps. 883 million), a loss on financial instruments (–Ps. 189 million) versus a Ps. 1,107 million gain from the revaluation of the convertible bond, and lower interest income. Additionally, there was no income from discontinued operations, which contributed Ps. 2,490 million in the first quarter of last year.

Net debt/EBITDA of 0.2x LTM remains minimal despite dividend payments and buybacks

At the end of the first quarter of 2026, FEMSA's net debt stood at Ps. 19,012 million, with net debt to EBITDA over the last twelve months at 0.2x. This is a very low level, even though the company has deployed Ps. 47,218 million on dividends and Ps. 16,055 million on share buybacks over the last twelve months.

The company also discloses a Net Debt / EBITDA ex-KOF (excluding Coca-Cola FEMSA) metric, which stood at 1.24x versus 0.69x a year earlier. The increase reflects the cash outflow for capital distributions, but the consolidated metric remains minimal.

Capex fell 29.5% to Ps. 6,195 million, supporting free cash flow

Capital expenditures in the first quarter of 2026 were Ps. 6,195 million, down 29.5% from the prior year. The decline affected OXXO Mexico, Coca-Cola FEMSA and Health, reflecting a cautious approach to investments. This was partially offset by higher capex in Americas & Mobility, where expansion in Latin America resumed.

Lower capex combined with higher EBITDA supports free cash flow. Together with a low debt burden, this allows the company to maintain generous shareholder distributions: the dividend yield over the last twelve months stands at 6.8%.

OXXO Mexico grew operating income 20.9% on revenue growth of 8.3%

OXXO Mexico, FEMSA's largest segment, delivered strong performance: revenue grew 8.3% to Ps. 74,424 million, and operating income rose 20.9% to Ps. 5,629 million. The operating margin expanded 80 bps to 7.6%. Growth was driven by a 6.6% increase in the average ticket, while traffic declined slightly by 0.5%.

The company attributes the results to its affordability strategy, price increases due to new taxes on cigarettes, soft drinks and beer, and improved weather conditions. OXXO's store base in Mexico expanded by 158 stores in the quarter and by 888 over the last twelve months, reaching 24,455 stores.

Spin active users grew 22.3%, and OXXO Mexico average ticket rose 6.6%

The Spin digital ecosystem continues to grow: active Spin by OXXO users reached 11.0 million, up 22.3% year-on-year. Monthly transactions rose 60.9% to an average of 103.0 million in the quarter. The average ticket at OXXO Mexico increased 6.6% to Ps. 952.9 thousand, supporting revenue growth.

Higher average ticket with nearly flat traffic points to successful monetization and increased loyalty through the Spin Premia program, where active users grew 12.8% to 28.4 million. The share of payments via Spin Premia at OXXO Mexico reached 50.6% versus 42.5% a year earlier.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

FEMSA reported first-quarter 2026 results with strong EBITDA and operating income growth, particularly at OXXO Mexico, where the margin expanded 80 bps. However, almost all of the net profit growth came from a one-off deal, without which profit would have fallen by a third. The debt burden remains minimal (0.2x EBITDA LTM), and capex is declining, supporting free cash flow. With EV/EBITDA of 7.3x versus a three-year average of 6.6x and upside potential of 17% on the portal's model, the share looks rather attractive, but the key question is whether OXXO Mexico can sustain double-digit operating income growth in a soft consumer environment.