PH_AGI: revenue returns to growth, but profit drops a third on one-offs

25 августа PH_AGI раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: выручка выросла на 10,4% год к году, до 47,7 млрд песо, EBITDA прибавила 25,2%, до 15,9 млрд, но чистая прибыль упала на 32,3%, до 5,6 млрд. На фоне удешевления акций до 3,2 P/E LTM и 4,3 EV/EBITDA LTM бумага выглядит скорее привлекательной: рынок уже заложил слабость, а операционный поток и снижение долга поддерживают оценку.

Key takeaways

— Revenue grew 10.4% in Q2 after four quarters of decline

— EBITDA margin widened to 33.3% from 29.3% a year earlier

— Net profit fell 32.3% due to one-off effects last year

— Net debt decreased by 65.5 billion pesos in the quarter

— Operating cash flow for the trailing twelve months reached 46.0 billion pesos

— Shares trade at a discount to their own historical multiples

Attractiveness

Key figures, PHP bn

Revenue grew 10.4% in Q2 after four quarters of decline

In Q2 2026, PH_AGI's revenue reached 47.7 billion pesos, up 10.4% year-on-year. This is the first positive quarterly growth after four consecutive quarters of decline: Q2 2025 saw a 20.8% drop, Q3 2025 – 22.0%, Q4 2025 – 25.4%, Q1 2026 – 18.8%.

The quarterly trend shows a turnaround: after the low in Q3 2025 (40.9 billion), revenue grew sequentially to 46.3 billion in Q4 2025 and 47.7 billion in Q2 2026. According to the report, growth was driven by alcoholic beverages and real estate sales, as well as leasing and hotels – segments that do not depend on the deconsolidated QSR business.

EBITDA margin widened to 33.3% from 29.3% a year earlier

EBITDA in Q2 2026 grew 25.2% year-on-year to 15.9 billion pesos, with the EBITDA margin expanding from 29.3% to 33.3%. The margin improvement reflects operating leverage: with revenue up 10.4%, EBITDA grows faster, indicating cost control.

Over the trailing twelve months, EBITDA reached 70.4 billion pesos on revenue of 175.4 billion, implying a margin of about 40% – higher than in the reported quarter, due to weaker quarters last year.

Net profit fell 32.3% due to one-off effects last year

Net profit in Q2 2026 was 5.6 billion pesos, down 32.3% year-on-year. However, last year's result included a one-off gain of 3.4 billion pesos from the deconsolidation of the QSR segment, distorting the comparison.

Excluding this effect, as the company notes, comparable net profit would have grown. In the Q1 2026 report, the company showed that ex-QSR net profit rose 6.2% – a similar dynamic likely occurred in Q2.

Net debt decreased by 65.5 billion pesos in the quarter

At the end of Q2 2026, PH_AGI's net debt stood at 154.3 billion pesos, down 65.5 billion from the previous reporting date (219.7 billion). Over the last twelve months, the reduction was 7.9 billion pesos.

The net debt to EBITDA ratio for the trailing twelve months is 3.21 – a moderate level for a conglomerate with real estate and hospitality businesses. The debt reduction came amid higher operating cash flow.

Operating cash flow for the trailing twelve months reached 46.0 billion pesos

Over the trailing twelve months, PH_AGI's operating cash flow was 46.0 billion pesos. In Q2 2026, OCF was modest at 5.7 billion, but in Q1 it reached 21.0 billion, offsetting the weakness.

Capital expenditures over the trailing twelve months were significant – about 34.6 billion pesos (sum of quarterly values), exceeding OCF, but the company finances construction with debt, which nevertheless is declining. The dividend yield over twelve months is only 1.1% – low, but acceptable at this valuation.

Shares trade at a discount to their own historical multiples

With a market cap of 78.2 billion pesos and trailing net profit of 24.8 billion, P/E LTM is 3.15. EV/EBITDA LTM is 4.32. These multiples are extremely low, especially for a company with growing revenue and margin.

According to the portal's model, the upside to fair value is +19%. This is the portal's own estimate, not market consensus, but it aligns with the cheap valuation.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

In Q2 2026, PH_AGI showed a revenue turnaround (+10.4%) and a significant EBITDA margin expansion to 33.3%, confirming operational resilience. Net profit fell a third, but largely due to a one-off gain last year, not business deterioration. Net debt decreased by 65.5 billion pesos in the quarter, improving the balance sheet. At P/E of 3.15 and EV/EBITDA of 4.32, the shares look undervalued, and the portal's model gives +19% upside. The key question is whether the company can sustain revenue growth and margins amid gaming segment weakness and debt load.