Philippines Stocks — Valuations, P/E & Dividends

This season's earnings story is one of stark divergence: while ports and logistics roared ahead with a median revenue growth of 28.9%, real estate and conglomerates barely moved the needle at 1.9% and 1.4%, respectively. The real action, however, lies beneath the surface—where a handful of players are rewriting their growth narratives, and one conglomerate has quietly become the market's most compelling value-and-growth hybrid.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Ports and logistics are the undisputed champions, with ICT leading the charge

ICT, the sole representative of the ports and logistics sector, posted a stunning 28.9% revenue growth, with EBITDA up 26.2% and net profit up 20.6%. This performance not only tops the industry charts but also outpaces every other company in the dataset, making it the clear winner of the season. The market has taken notice, pricing ICT at a P/E of 29.6x—a premium that, while rich, is justified by its exceptional growth trajectory.

Banks grind higher on revenue, but profitability tells a mixed tale

The banking sector delivered a solid median revenue growth of 11.0%, with SECB leading at 27.6% and BPI close behind at 13.7%. However, the bottom line was less impressive: SECB's net profit fell 4.1%, and BDO's EBITDA declined 5.2%, signaling that top-line strength isn't translating into earnings power. The exception is UBP, which saw net profit surge 167.4% on the back of a 75.4% EBITDA jump—a standout in an otherwise grind-it-out quarter.

Real estate and conglomerates lag, with AGI the biggest loser

At the other end of the spectrum, AGI, a conglomerate, suffered a brutal 18.8% revenue decline, with net profit down 28.7%—the worst performance in the entire dataset. Real estate also struggled, with ALI's revenue down 13.9% and net profit off 20.2%, while SMPH managed only 0.9% revenue growth and saw EBITDA fall 9.8%. These sectors are clearly facing headwinds, and the market has punished them with single-digit P/E ratios—AGI trades at just 2.8x earnings, a steep discount that reflects deep skepticism.

The plot twist: AEV's explosive growth and JFC's profit collapse

The biggest surprise comes from AEV, a conglomerate that accelerated dramatically: revenue growth jumped to 26.4% from a prior period that was effectively flat, while net profit soared 83.4%—a stark contrast to the sector's sluggish median of 1.4%. Meanwhile, JFC, the restaurant giant, saw net profit plunge 43.6% despite revenue growth of 9.1%, a sharp reversal from the prior period's 20.1% profit growth. This deceleration is a warning sign that even consumer favorites are feeling margin pressure.

Valuation: AEV and AGI look cheap for their growth, while MER is priced for perfection

AEV, with 26.4% revenue growth and 83.4% net profit growth, trades at just 9.9x earnings and 19.4x EV/EBITDA—a compelling value proposition for a company growing at this pace. AGI, despite its revenue decline, is priced at 2.8x earnings and 5.9x EV/EBITDA, which could be attractive if management can stabilize the business. On the flip side, MER, a utility with 5.5% revenue growth and only 2.0% net profit growth, trades at a staggering 49.7x P/E and 46.7x EV/EBITDA—a clear case of priced-for-perfection with no margin for error.

Income: Banks and real estate offer the best yields, but watch for sustainability

For income seekers, the banking sector stands out with SECB at a P/E of 4.5x and MBT at 5.9x, implying dividend yields that likely exceed 5%—a rare combination of value and income. In real estate, MEG and RLC trade at P/Es of 3.1x and 5.6x, respectively, offering yields that could attract income-focused investors, though the sector's growth challenges warrant caution. UBP, with its 167.4% profit surge, may also be a dividend growth story in the making.

The long view: AEV's acceleration and JGS's steady climb are the ones to watch

While 3-year revenue CAGRs are not available, AEV's current acceleration and JGS's consistent 16.3% net profit growth on 1.8% revenue growth suggest a conglomerate that is finding efficiency. JGS trades at 18.3x earnings, a premium to its sector, but the profit growth may justify it. Looking ahead, the key question is whether ICT's port momentum can sustain its 28.9% growth, and whether AEV can maintain its explosive pace—if so, these could be the market's next darlings.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)