Ayala Land: revenue down 13.9%, but profit holds at 17.9% margin

31 марта 2026 года Ayala Land раскрыла результаты за первый квартал 2026 года. Выручка снизилась на 13,9% год к году до 37,5 млрд песо, EBITDA – на 15,8% до 11,0 млрд песо, чистая прибыль – на 20,2% до 6,7 млрд песо. При этом маржа EBITDA составила 29,3%, чистая маржа – 17,9%, что лишь немного ниже уровней годичной давности. Акции торгуются по P/E 5,0 и EV/EBITDA 6,9, что выглядит привлекательно, но модель портала оценивает потенциал роста в -3%, что делает вердикт скорее нейтральным.

Key takeaways

— Выручка сократилась на 13,9% в первом квартале 2026 года, продолжив волатильную динамику

— EBITDA маржа осталась высокой – 29,3%, несмотря на падение выручки

— Чистая прибыль упала на 20,2%, но рентабельность по чистой прибыли составила 17,9%

— Операционный денежный поток резко сократился до 1,8 млрд песо

— Долговая нагрузка: чистый долг вырос до 334,5 млрд песо, отношение к EBITDA – 4,14

— Дивиденд за первый квартал 2026 года составил 0,35 песо на акцию, что выше прошлогоднего уровня

— Оценка: P/E 5,0 и EV/EBITDA 6,9, но модель портала показывает потенциал -3%

Attractiveness

Key figures, PHP bn

Revenue fell 13.9% in Q1 2026, continuing volatile dynamics

In Q1 2026, Ayala Land's revenue reached PHP 37.5 billion, down 13.9% from the same period a year earlier. This is a sharp slowdown after 23.2% growth in Q4 2025, when revenue hit PHP 68.4 billion.

The decline was driven mainly by lower real estate revenue, which fell from PHP 42.6 billion to PHP 36.2 billion. This reflects overall sales volatility: over the past eight quarters, growth rates have swung from -13.9% to +23.2%.

EBITDA margin remained high at 29.3% despite falling revenue

EBITDA for Q1 2026 reached PHP 11.0 billion, down 15.8% year-on-year. However, the EBITDA margin stood at 29.3%, only slightly below the 29.9% a year earlier.

This indicates that the company managed to maintain operational efficiency despite lower revenue. Real estate contributed the most to EBITDA, although its revenue declined.

Net profit fell 20.2%, but net margin was 17.9%

Net profit for Q1 2026 reached PHP 6.7 billion, down 20.2% from a year earlier. Net margin stood at 17.9% versus 19.3% in Q1 2025.

The profit decline mirrors lower revenue, but the margin remains relatively high. There were no major one-off items in the period: investment and other income totaled just PHP 0.7 billion.

Operating cash flow fell sharply to PHP 1.8 billion

Operating cash flow in Q1 2026 was just PHP 1.8 billion versus PHP 8.2 billion a year earlier. This sharp decline is due to higher receivables and outflows in other working capital items.

Capital expenditures reached PHP 1.7 billion, below last year's PHP 2.9 billion. Free cash flow remains positive but small – around PHP 0.1 billion.

Debt burden: net debt rose to PHP 334.5 billion, ratio to EBITDA at 4.14

As of end-March 2026, Ayala Land's net debt stood at PHP 334.5 billion, up PHP 122.3 billion from the previous reporting date and PHP 49.1 billion over the last 12 months. The net debt to EBITDA ratio for the trailing twelve months is 4.14.

The debt increase reflects active borrowing: during the quarter, the company drew PHP 63.7 billion in new loans and repaid PHP 45.0 billion. Interest expenses reached PHP 4.7 billion for the quarter.

Dividend for Q1 2026 was PHP 0.35 per share, above last year's level

The board declared a dividend for Q1 2026 of PHP 0.35 per common share, up from PHP 0.29 a year earlier. Total dividends declared reached PHP 5.0 billion.

Over the trailing twelve months, the dividend yield stands at 4.2%. At the current share price, this provides moderate income, but the quarterly payout exceeds free cash flow, which may require borrowing.

Valuation: P/E 5.0 and EV/EBITDA 6.9, but portal model shows -3% potential

Ayala Land's market capitalization stands at PHP 210.7 billion. Multiples look low: P/E for the trailing twelve months is 5.0, EV/EBITDA is 6.9. This suggests the market is pricing the company cheaply relative to its earnings and EBITDA.

However, the portal's fundamental model, based on EBITDA growth and a target multiple, shows a downside potential of 3% from the current price. This means that despite low multiples, the model does not see significant upside.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

In Q1 2026, Ayala Land saw revenue and profit decline but maintained high margins. Operating cash flow fell sharply, and debt continued to rise. The dividend was increased, but its payout exceeds free cash flow. Despite low multiples (P/E 5.0, EV/EBITDA 6.9), the portal model sees no upside, making the shares rather neutral. The key question is whether the company can restore revenue growth and stabilize its debt burden.