BDO Unibank: profit grows, but margin shrinks as provisioning outpaces revenue

31 марта 2026 года BDO Unibank раскрыл результаты за первый квартал 2026 года. Чистый процентный доход вырос на 11,0% год к году до 53 029 млн песо, а чистая прибыль – на 2,1% до 20 182 млн песо. Однако EBITDA-маржа упала с 63,2% до 54,0%, а отчисления на резервы подскочили более чем вдвое. При текущей цене акция выглядит привлекательно: P/E LTM 7,3 и потенциал роста по модели портала +13%.

Key takeaways

— Net interest income rose 11.0% on loan portfolio expansion and higher rates

— Provisions more than doubled, eating into profit

— EBITDA margin fell from 63.2% to 54.0% on higher opex and provisions

— Net profit grew only 2.1% as provisions and taxes offset revenue growth

— Cost of risk is rising: loan book expanded but asset quality needs watching

— Capex stable, dividends fully paid

— Bank sold 70% of subsidiary Dominion Holdings, hinting at portfolio optimization

Attractiveness

Key figures, PHP bn

Net interest income rose 11.0% on loan portfolio expansion and higher rates

In Q1 2026, BDO Unibank's net interest income reached PHP 53,029 million, up 11.0% year-on-year. Growth was driven by loan portfolio expansion: loans and other receivables rose from PHP 3,694 billion to PHP 3,791 billion during the quarter. Interest income on loans increased 9.9% to PHP 63,487 million, and on trading and investment securities – 17.6% to PHP 12,652 million.

Interest expenses also rose, but slower – by 11.2% to PHP 24,426 million, allowing net interest income to stay positive. The main driver was deposit base expansion: time deposits grew 12.4% during the quarter, total deposits 5.7%.

Provisions more than doubled, eating into profit

Provision for impairment in Q1 2026 reached PHP 6,148 million versus PHP 3,029 million a year earlier – more than double. The bulk came from financial assets: PHP 6,067 million versus PHP 2,855 million. This significantly slowed net profit growth.

Higher provisions may reflect deteriorating asset quality or a conservative approach to building buffers. Non-performing loans (over 90 days) stood at PHP 64,318 million, or about 1.7% of the portfolio, warranting further monitoring.

EBITDA margin fell from 63.2% to 54.0% on higher opex and provisions

EBITDA for Q1 2026 fell 5.2% to PHP 34,773 million, with margin dropping from 63.2% to 54.0%. The reason is faster growth in operating expenses: they rose 6.3% to PHP 43,448 million, while revenue (net interest income + other operating income) grew only 3.6%.

Main cost drivers were employee compensation (+12.2%), taxes and licenses (+10.0%), and other opex. Provisions, though not part of EBITDA, also pressure the bottom line.

Net profit grew only 2.1% as provisions and taxes offset revenue growth

Net profit for Q1 2026 was PHP 20,182 million, only 2.1% above last year. Revenue growth was fully offset by a PHP 3,119 million increase in provisions and a 17.5% rise in income tax to PHP 5,144 million.

The effective tax rate rose from 18.1% to 20.3%, further denting net profit. As a result, net profit as a share of net interest income fell from 41.4% to 38.1%.

Cost of risk is rising: loan book expanded but asset quality needs watching

The loan book grew 2.6% during the quarter to PHP 3,791 billion, but provisions also increased. The ratio of provisions to loan book rose from 0.08% to 0.16% year-on-year, indicating deteriorating asset quality or stricter regulatory requirements.

Non-performing loans over 90 days stood at PHP 64,318 million, of which PHP 48,030 million were over 181 days. The bank is likely building buffers in anticipation of further macroeconomic deterioration, which could pressure profit in coming quarters.

Capex stable, dividends fully paid

Capex in Q1 2026 was PHP 3,043 million, almost flat year-on-year (PHP 3,079 million). The bank continues to invest in fixed assets without sharp spikes.

In Q1 2026, the bank paid dividends totaling PHP 6,276 million, including PHP 5.9 billion on common shares (PHP 1.10 per share) and PHP 407 million on preferred shares. Trailing twelve-month dividend yield is 3.64%.

Bank sold 70% of subsidiary Dominion Holdings, hinting at portfolio optimization

On January 19, 2026, BDO Unibank signed an agreement to sell 70% of Dominion Holdings, Inc. to Monte Sur Equity Holdings. The deal closed on March 16, 2026, after conditions including a mandatory tender offer were met.

The sale may be part of a strategy to simplify the corporate structure and free up capital. The report also reflects the disposal of a subsidiary, resulting in a PHP 399 million adjustment to equity.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

BDO Unibank posted solid net interest income growth (+11.0%), but net profit rose only 2.1% due to doubled provisions and higher taxes. EBITDA margin fell sharply, indicating pressure on operating efficiency. Nevertheless, the bank retains strong fundamentals: P/E LTM 7.3, ROE 12.5%, dividend yield 3.64%. The portal's model implies +13% upside, making the share attractive at current levels. The key question is asset quality: if provisions keep rising, profit may stagnate.