Jollibee: revenue up 9.1%, but net profit down 43.6% on one-offs and weak operating dynamics

11 мая 2026 года Jollibee Foods Corporation раскрыла результаты за первый квартал 2026 года. Выручка выросла на 9,1% год к году, до 77,1 млрд песо, EBITDA снизилась на 6,0%, до 7,6 млрд песо, а чистая прибыль упала на 43,6%, до 1,4 млрд песо. При текущей цене акции выглядят скорее привлекательно: мультипликаторы ниже исторических средних, а модель портала даёт потенциал роста около 7%.

Key takeaways

— Q1 2026 revenue grew 9.1% driven by 181 new store openings and positive comparable sales

— EBITDA declined 6.0% due to higher ingredient costs and operating expenses

— Net profit fell 43.6% due to losses from joint ventures and associates

— Operating cash flow dropped 46.8% to PHP 2.3 billion on working capital buildup

— Leverage: net debt to EBITDA at -0.71, reflecting a net cash position

— Dividend yield of 2.28% is below historical levels, but payouts continue

— Portal model implies +7% upside for the stock

Attractiveness

Key figures, PHP bn

Q1 2026 revenue grew 9.1% driven by 181 new store openings and positive comparable sales

In Q1 2026, Jollibee's revenue reached PHP 77.1 billion, up 9.1% year-on-year. Growth was driven by both new openings – the network expanded by 181 stores during the quarter to 10,421 restaurants worldwide – and higher comparable sales, particularly in the Philippines and China.

System Wide Sales grew 10.3% to PHP 113.9 billion, reflecting solid demand in key regions. The company continues to expand its network, especially in China (+11 stores in the quarter) and the Philippines (+5 stores).

EBITDA declined 6.0% due to higher ingredient costs and operating expenses

EBITDA for Q1 2026 stood at PHP 7.6 billion, down 6.0% year-on-year. EBITDA margin contracted from 13.2% to 11.3%. The main pressure came from higher ingredient costs: cost of inventories rose 13.1%, outpacing revenue growth.

Operating profit fell 18.2% to PHP 3.9 billion, reflecting not only higher cost of sales but also a 9.4% increase in general and administrative expenses. The company continues to invest in expansion, which temporarily weighs on margins.

Net profit fell 43.6% due to losses from joint ventures and associates

Net profit for Q1 2026 was PHP 1.4 billion, down 43.6% year-on-year. The main driver was losses from joint ventures and associates of PHP 30.8 million versus a profit of PHP 76.3 million a year earlier.

In addition, interest expenses rose 6.6% to PHP 1.7 billion, reflecting higher debt after the redemption of senior notes and new borrowings. Net margin contracted from 3.5% to 1.8%.

Operating cash flow dropped 46.8% to PHP 2.3 billion on working capital buildup

Operating cash flow for Q1 2026 was PHP 2.3 billion, down 46.8% year-on-year. The reason is a significant increase in inventories (by PHP 2.3 billion) and other current assets, partially offset by higher trade payables.

Capital expenditures declined 8.9% to PHP 2.3 billion, in line with network expansion plans. Free cash flow remains positive but well below last year's level.

Leverage: net debt to EBITDA at -0.71, reflecting a net cash position

At the end of Q1 2026, net debt stood at PHP -11.1 billion, meaning cash and short-term investments exceeded debt. Net debt to EBITDA for the trailing twelve months was -0.71, indicating a net cash position.

During the quarter, net debt increased by PHP 67.4 billion, reflecting the redemption of senior notes worth PHP 17.8 billion and new long-term borrowings of PHP 18.1 billion. The company is refinancing its debt, increasing the share of long-term borrowings.

Dividend yield of 2.28% is below historical levels, but payouts continue

Over the trailing twelve months, Jollibee paid dividends corresponding to a yield of 2.28% at the current price. In Q1 2026, the company paid PHP 95.4 million in dividends, in line with last year's level.

We expect payouts to continue this year, supported by company policy and stable cash flow. However, with lower profit and higher capex, the dividend could be below last year's level.

Portal model implies +7% upside for the stock

According to the portal model, based on EBITDA growth and target multiple, Jollibee's shares have +7% upside potential from the current market price. This is a moderately positive signal, given that the stock trades at P/E LTM of 22.4 and EV/EBITDA LTM of 10.2.

Return on equity (ROE) is 7.1%, below historical levels, but the company maintains a net cash position and continues to invest in expansion. If margins improve, the stock could re-rate higher.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

In Q1 2026, Jollibee showed solid revenue growth of 9.1%, but operating efficiency deteriorated: EBITDA fell 6%, and net profit dropped 43.6% due to one-off losses from joint ventures and higher interest expenses. The company maintains a net cash position and continues to expand its network, supporting long-term potential. However, at the current price, the stock trades at a P/E of 22.4, which is not cheap, and the portal model implies only moderate upside of 7%. Verdict – rather attractive: improved margins and lower JV losses could drive a re-rating, but positive quarterly data is needed.