MOEX: H1 net profit up 4.7%, but margin contracted 4.5 pp

On August 26, MOEX reported H1 2026 results: revenue grew 15.2% YoY, net profit 4.7%. Net margin fell from 48.8% to 44.3%. This review looks at what drove growth and why margins compressed.

Key takeaways

— H1 revenue grew 15.2% to RUB 128.4bn, but Q2 growth slowed to +144.8% YoY after a weak Q2 2025

— H1 net profit rose only 4.7% to RUB 32.9bn, while margin fell 4.5 pp due to higher expenses

— Q2 2026 net profit was RUB 15.8bn, up 4.7% YoY but below Q1 2026 (RUB 17.2bn)

— Fee and commission income for H1 rose to RUB 36.3bn, driven by money market (+22.7%) and derivatives (+58.8%)

— Net interest income for H1 was RUB 8.3bn, down 20% YoY, reflecting lower key rate

— Trailing dividend yield is 12.8%; our next payout estimate is RUB 21.27 per share, implying 13.9% forward yield

— Capex for H1 rose to RUB 4.0bn, down 2% YoY but above 2024 levels

Key figures, RUB bn

H1 revenue grew 15.2% to RUB 128.4bn, but Q2 growth slowed to +144.8% YoY after a weak Q2 2025

For H1 2026, MOEX revenue reached RUB 128.4bn, up 15.2% YoY. However, quarterly dynamics are uneven: Q2 2026 revenue grew 144.8% YoY, but against a weak Q2 2025 when revenue fell 68.8%.

In Q1 2026, revenue also grew strongly, judging by net profit dynamics (+32.2% YoY). The main driver remains fee and commission income, which rose to RUB 36.3bn for H1, with money market (+22.7%) and derivatives (+58.8%) showing particularly strong growth.

H1 net profit rose only 4.7% to RUB 32.9bn, while margin fell 4.5 pp due to higher expenses

Net profit for H1 2026 was RUB 32.9bn, up only 4.7% YoY. Net margin fell from 48.8% to 44.3%, a 4.5 percentage point decline.

Margin compression is due to faster expense growth: general and administrative expenses for H1 rose to RUB 9.5bn (after reclassification of commission expenses), up 20% YoY. Depreciation also increased to RUB 4.3bn from RUB 3.6bn a year earlier.

Q2 2026 net profit was RUB 15.8bn, up 4.7% YoY but below Q1 2026 (RUB 17.2bn)

In Q2 2026, MOEX net profit was RUB 15.8bn, up 4.7% YoY from RUB 15.1bn in Q2 2025. However, this is below Q1 2026, when net profit reached RUB 17.2bn (+32.2% YoY).

The quarterly decline reflects seasonality and likely lower net interest income amid monetary easing. Still, profit levels remain high – net margin in Q2 was around 44%.

Fee and commission income for H1 rose to RUB 36.3bn, driven by money market (+22.7%) and derivatives (+58.8%)

Fee and commission income for H1 2026 was RUB 36.3bn, up 8.5% YoY. The largest contributions came from money market – RUB 11.1bn (+22.7%) and derivatives – RUB 8.9bn (+58.8%).

Equity market brought RUB 9.1bn, down 11% YoY, mainly due to lower equity trading revenue (–35.8%). Depository services rose 21.8% to RUB 6.0bn, financial marketplace – 14.5% to RUB 3.3bn.

Net interest income for H1 was RUB 8.3bn, down 20% YoY, reflecting lower key rate

Net interest income for H1 2026 was RUB 8.3bn, down 20% YoY from RUB 10.4bn. This reflects lower key rate: yield on client funds and own portfolio declines faster than funding costs.

In Q2 2026, net interest income was RUB 6.5bn, much better than Q1 (RUB 1.8bn), but still below 2024 levels. Further rate cuts will pressure this segment, though fee income growth partially offsets.

Trailing dividend yield is 12.8%; our next payout estimate is RUB 21.27 per share, implying 13.9% forward yield

Over the last 12 months, MOEX paid RUB 19.57 per share, providing a dividend yield of 12.8%. Our model estimates the next payout at RUB 21.27 per share, implying a forward yield of 13.9%.

We consider a fair yield for this issuer to be 10.5%, meaning the current forward yield is 3.4 pp above fair. The implied payout ratio is 0.75 of profit, consistent with MOEX dividend policy.

Capex for H1 rose to RUB 4.0bn, down 2% YoY but above 2024 levels

Capex for H1 2026 was RUB 4.0bn, down 2% YoY from RUB 4.1bn in H1 2025, but well above H1 2024 (RUB 2.8bn).

The increase in capex versus 2024 reflects investments in technology infrastructure and new products. Still, capex remains moderate relative to profit – about 12% of H1 net profit, leaving ample room for dividends.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

MOEX reported H1 2026 with revenue up 15.2% and net profit up 4.7% – a solid result, but with caveats. Growth was driven by fee income, especially in money and derivatives markets, while net interest income declined amid rate cuts. Margin contracted 4.5 pp due to faster expense growth. Dividend yield remains attractive – 12.8% trailing, 13.9% forward. The key question for shareholders is whether fee growth can offset further declines in interest income and whether expenses will continue to outpace revenue.