AMPHENOL CORP /DE/: revenue doubled in two years, but the main driver is acquisitions, not organic growth

29 июля Amphenol раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: выручка выросла на 55% до 8,8 млрд долл., EBITDA – на 79,7% до 2,9 млрд долл., чистая прибыль – на 62,1% до 1,77 млрд долл.. Акции на релизе прибавили 4,5%, а с тех пор выросли ещё на 15,1%. При текущей цене бумага выглядит скорее привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA на уровне 12,9 лишь немного выше собственного трёхлетнего среднего (12,6), а модель портала даёт потенциал +39%.

Key takeaways

— Revenue +55% YoY, but organic growth only 30% – the rest came from acquisitions

— EBITDA margin expanded to 33.4% from 28.8% a year earlier, helped by one-off tariff recoveries

— Net profit rose 62%, but includes one-off items – tariff recoveries and tax reserves

— Leverage remains low: net debt on the balance sheet is $4.0 billion, or 0.47x EBITDA for the last 12 months

— Operating cash flow for the quarter was $1.6 billion, capex $356 million, free cash flow about $1.2 billion

— The company completed two M&A deals and raised its forecast for the CommScope acquisition benefit

— Shares trade at P/E 20.7 and EV/EBITDA 12.9 – slightly above its own history, but with upside on the portal's model

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue +55% YoY, but organic growth only 30% – the rest came from acquisitions

In Q2 2026, Amphenol's sales reached $8.76 billion, up 55% from a year earlier. However, the company separately highlights that organic growth, i.e. excluding currency and M&A, was only 30%. The difference is the contribution of recent acquisitions, primarily CommScope, whose purchase closed in Q1 2026.

Quarterly dynamics are accelerating: Q1 2026 growth was 58.4%, Q2 – 55.0%. But looking at the organic component, the pace is lower – the company grew through acquisitions, not only thanks to the market. Nevertheless, orders in the quarter were $10.7 billion, giving a book-to-bill of 1.23 – demand remains strong.

EBITDA margin expanded to 33.4% from 28.8% a year earlier, helped by one-off tariff recoveries

EBITDA for the quarter rose 79.7% to $2.93 billion, and EBITDA margin reached 33.4% versus 28.8% in Q2 2025. The margin expansion of almost 5 percentage points is the result of operating leverage and economies of scale, but also one-off factors.

The report states that operating income includes a net benefit of $80 million from IEEPA tariff recoveries. Without this effect, the margin would have been about 0.9 p.p. lower. The company also notes that the Q3 guidance does not include additional tariff recoveries.

Net profit rose 62%, but includes one-off items – tariff recoveries and tax reserves

Net profit in Q2 was $1.77 billion, up 62.1% from a year earlier. Profit growth outpaced revenue growth due to margin expansion, but part of the profit was formed by one-off items.

In addition to tariff recoveries of $80 million (about $0.04 per share), the report mentions reserves for potential settlement of tax disputes of $39 million ($0.03 per share). Without these items, adjusted EPS would have been $1.35 versus $1.37 GAAP.

Leverage remains low: net debt on the balance sheet is $4.0 billion, or 0.47x EBITDA for the last 12 months

At the end of the quarter, the company's net debt was $4.0 billion, corresponding to 0.47x EBITDA for the last 12 months. This is a low level of leverage, especially given the recent large CommScope acquisition.

During the quarter, net debt decreased by $1.0 billion, although over 12 months it increased by $7.2 billion – a consequence of financing M&A deals. Nevertheless, the debt-to-EBITDA ratio remains comfortable, and the company retains capacity for further acquisitions.

Operating cash flow for the quarter was $1.6 billion, capex $356 million, free cash flow about $1.2 billion

In Q2, operating cash flow was $1.6 billion, up 13% from a year earlier. Capital expenditures increased to $356 million, but remain moderate – about 4% of revenue.

Free cash flow, defined as operating cash flow minus capex, was approximately $1.2 billion. The company used these funds for share buybacks ($208 million) and dividends ($307 million), as well as for financing acquisitions.

The company completed two M&A deals and raised its forecast for the CommScope acquisition benefit

During the quarter, Amphenol closed two deals: the acquisition of Italian manufacturer El.Com (annual sales of about $150 million) and Wilder Technologies (about $15 million). Both companies have been integrated into the respective segments.

More important was the upward revision of the CommScope acquisition forecast: the company now expects this deal to generate $4.6 billion in annual sales and add $0.30 to adjusted EPS in 2026 – above previous expectations of $4.1 billion and $0.15, respectively.

Shares trade at P/E 20.7 and EV/EBITDA 12.9 – slightly above its own history, but with upside on the portal's model

Amphenol's current market cap is $106.7 billion. P/E for the last 12 months is 20.7, and EV/EBITDA is 12.9. This is only slightly above the three-year average EV/EBITDA of 12.6, meaning the market values the company roughly in line with its historical norm.

According to the portal's model, which multiplies EBITDA growth by a target multiple, the upside of the share is +39% to fair value. This is the portal's own calculation, not a market consensus, but it suggests that at current growth rates the stock is undervalued.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The report is strong: revenue and profit are growing at double-digit rates, margins are expanding, leverage is low, and management is raising forecasts for the key deal. However, part of the growth is driven by acquisitions and one-off items, so earnings quality is somewhat lower than it seems at first glance. At the same time, the valuation remains reasonable: EV/EBITDA is only slightly above its own history, and the portal's model gives +39% upside. If organic growth stays at 30% and the CommScope integration goes well, the shares have good chances for further growth. Verdict – rather attractive.