ELI LILLY & Co: revenue accelerated to +48%, but margin compressed on acquisition costs

5 августа 2026 года ELI LILLY & Co раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: выручка выросла на 48% до 22 974 млн долл., EBITDA – на 34,8% до 9 781 млн долл., чистая прибыль – на 25,3% до 7 095 млн долл.. Рост замедлился по сравнению с предыдущим кварталом, но остаётся высоким; при этом маржинальность по EBITDA снизилась с 46,6% до 42,6% из-за разовых расходов на поглощения. На текущей цене акция выглядит скорее привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA значительно ниже собственного трёхлетнего среднего, а модель портала указывает на потенциал роста в 19%.

Key takeaways

— Q2 revenue grew 48% to $22,974 million, driven by Mounjaro and Zepbound volumes

— EBITDA margin fell from 46.6% to 42.6% due to one-off acquisition charges

— Net profit rose 25.3%, but lagged revenue growth due to higher R&D and taxes

— Company raised 2026 revenue guidance to $85–87 billion, confirming demand confidence

— Net debt/EBITDA stands at 1.03, leaving room for further deals

— Shares trade at a discount to their own history: EV/EBITDA 29.4 vs. 3-year average 60.3

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Q2 revenue grew 48% to $22,974 million, driven by Mounjaro and Zepbound volumes

In Q2 2026, ELI LILLY & Co's revenue reached $22,974 million, up 48% year-over-year. Growth was driven mainly by Mounjaro and Zepbound: Mounjaro sales rose 91% to $9,943 million, Zepbound by 46% to $4,928 million. Together, these two drugs contributed nearly two-thirds of total revenue.

Volumes grew 60%, while realized prices fell 13%, largely due to Mounjaro's inclusion in China's NRDL reimbursement list and price cuts for Zepbound in the US cash-pay market. Demand remains strong, especially outside the US, where revenue increased 80%.

EBITDA margin fell from 46.6% to 42.6% due to one-off acquisition charges

EBITDA in Q2 rose 34.8% to $9,781 million, but EBITDA margin fell from 46.6% to 42.6%. The main reason is acquired IPR&D charges of $2,776 million recognized in Q2, related to completed acquisitions of Orna Therapeutics and Ajax Therapeutics.

Excluding these one-off items, operating margin would have been significantly higher. The company also incurred $703 million in asset impairment and restructuring charges, mainly related to accelerated employee equity vesting upon closing of Kelonia and Centessa deals. These are non-recurring factors and do not reflect deterioration in the underlying business.

Net profit rose 25.3%, but lagged revenue growth due to higher R&D and taxes

Net profit in Q2 was $7,095 million, up 25.3% year-over-year. Growth lagged revenue due to a 14% increase in R&D expenses to $3,819 million and a higher effective tax rate, which rose from 16.5% to 23.3% due to non-deductible acquired IPR&D charges.

On an adjusted (non-GAAP) basis, net profit rose 32% to $7,493 million, better reflecting operational dynamics. One-off items, including acquisition charges and investment revaluation, distort the comparison with last year, so investors should focus on adjusted metrics.

Company raised 2026 revenue guidance to $85–87 billion, confirming demand confidence

ELI LILLY & Co raised its 2026 revenue guidance from $82–85 billion to $85–87 billion, citing strong Q2 results. The non-GAAP EPS guidance was kept at $35.50–36.50, with an operational upgrade of $2.78 offset by $3.03 per share of acquisition charges.

The guidance raise confirms management expects sustained high demand for obesity and diabetes drugs. The company also continues to invest in manufacturing capacity, announcing an additional $4.5 billion commitment to Indiana plants.

Net debt/EBITDA stands at 1.03, leaving room for further deals

At the end of Q2, net debt stood at $45,958 million, up $7.9 billion quarter-over-quarter and $9.6 billion year-over-year. The increase reflects active M&A, including completed acquisitions of Orna, Ajax, Centessa, and Kelonia.

Net debt to EBITDA for the trailing twelve months is 1.03 – a moderate level for a pharmaceutical company with growing cash flow. This leaves room for further acquisitions, which management is actively pursuing to strengthen its pipeline in genetic medicine and infectious diseases.

Shares trade at a discount to their own history: EV/EBITDA 29.4 vs. 3-year average 60.3

Current EV/EBITDA multiple is 29.4 – significantly below the three-year average of 60.3. Even with a P/E of 37.5, shares look cheaper than historically, reflecting both slowing growth and a broader de-rating of risk assets.

According to the portal's model, the upside to fair value is +19% – this is the portal's own calculation based on EBITDA growth and target multiple. The stock is held in the 'US GARP' and 'acceleration' strategies on the portal, reflecting its fit with screening criteria, but this is not a recommendation.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

ELI LILLY & Co continues to deliver strong organic growth, confirmed by a raised 2026 guidance. One-off acquisition charges distorted quarterly margin dynamics but do not reflect underlying deterioration. Leverage remains moderate and multiples are below historical averages. The key question for holders is whether the company can sustain double-digit growth amid intensifying competition and pricing pressure. At the current price, the share looks rather attractive.