MICROSOFT CORP: Azure crosses $100 billion, but the market has already priced in all the optimism

29 июля MICROSOFT CORP раскрыла результаты за четвёртый квартал 2026 финансового года: выручка выросла на 17,7% до $90,0 млрд, чистая прибыль – на 31,3% до $35,8 млрд. Акции после выхода отчёта подорожали на 27%, и теперь оценка в 20,1x EV/EBITDA LTM заметно выше собственного трёхлетнего среднего (24,3x – но это среднее по EV/EBITDA, а не по EV/EBITDAC). На наш взгляд, бумага выглядит скорее привлекательной: рост облачного бизнеса и маржинальность остаются сильными, но потенциал дальнейшего роста цены ограничен.

Key takeaways

— Выручка MICROSOFT CORP в четвёртом квартале выросла на 17,7% до $90,0 млрд, причём Azure прибавил 43% и впервые за год принёс более $100 млрд

— Чистая прибыль за квартал увеличилась на 31,3% до $35,8 млрд, но $3,2 млрд из этого – разовый доход от инвестиций в Anthropic

— EBITDA-маржа за квартал достигла 62,1% против 55,1% годом ранее – операционный рычаг продолжает работать

— Долговая нагрузка остаётся низкой: чистый долг на конец квартала – $30,3 млрд, что составляет 0,16 EBITDA за последние 12 месяцев

— Капитальные затраты за квартал выросли до $35,8 млрд, что почти вдвое выше прошлогоднего уровня, но операционный денежный поток $55,4 млрд их покрывает

— Акции с момента отчёта выросли на 27%, и теперь оценка в 20,1x EV/EBITDA LTM выше собственного трёхлетнего среднего (24,3x – но это среднее по EV/EBITDA, а не по EV/EBITDAC)

— По модели портала, upside до справедливой стоимости составляет +13% – это наш собственный расчёт, а не рыночный консенсус

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

MICROSOFT CORP's revenue in Q4 grew 17.7% to $90.0 billion, with Azure up 43% and surpassing $100 billion for the year

In Q4 of fiscal 2026 (ended June 30), MICROSOFT CORP's revenue reached $90.0 billion, up 17.7% year-over-year. The main driver was the Intelligent Cloud segment, whose revenue grew 32% to $39.3 billion, with Azure and other cloud services up 43%. For the full fiscal year, Azure surpassed $100 billion for the first time, as CEO Satya Nadella stated.

The Productivity and Business Processes segment grew 14% to $37.8 billion, supported by Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud growth of 16% (adjusted for comparability) and LinkedIn's 12% increase. The More Personal Computing segment, in contrast, declined 4% to $12.9 billion, due to drops of 7% and 10% in Windows OEM and XBOX content and services, respectively.

Net profit for the quarter rose 31.3% to $35.8 billion, but $3.2 billion of that is a one-time gain from the Anthropic investment

Net profit in the reported quarter rose 31.3% to $35.8 billion. However, the release notes a one-time gain of $3.2 billion from the Anthropic investment, partially offset by expenses related to the Voluntary Retirement Program and impairment charges in XBOX. Excluding these items, adjusted non-GAAP net profit was $35.3 billion, up 22% year-over-year.

The one-off nature of the Anthropic gain means profit growth will likely slow next quarter unless similar items appear. Nevertheless, operating income grew 18% to $40.6 billion, indicating the resilience of the core business.

EBITDA margin for the quarter reached 62.1% versus 55.1% a year earlier – operating leverage continues to work

EBITDA in Q4 grew 32.7% to $40.6 billion, with the EBITDA margin expanding from 55.1% to 62.1%. This reflects operating leverage: revenue is growing faster than operating expenses, which rose only 9.8% (to $19.9 billion).

Net margin also improved from 35.6% to 39.7%, helped by the one-time Anthropic gain. Excluding it, the margin would be lower but still well above last year's.

Debt burden remains low: net debt at quarter-end was $30.3 billion, or 0.16 of EBITDA for the last twelve months

At quarter-end, MICROSOFT CORP's net debt stood at $30.3 billion, equivalent to 0.16 of EBITDA for the trailing twelve months. This is a very low leverage level, giving the company significant financial flexibility for investments and shareholder returns.

Net debt rose by $40.7 billion during the quarter and by $53.3 billion over the last twelve months, driven by higher capital expenditures and share repurchases. Nevertheless, the absolute debt level remains moderate.

Capital expenditures in the quarter rose to $35.8 billion, almost double last year's level, but operating cash flow of $55.4 billion covers them

Capital expenditures in Q4 reached $35.8 billion versus $17.1 billion a year earlier – more than double, reflecting massive investments in AI and cloud infrastructure. Operating cash flow for the quarter was $55.4 billion, comfortably covering capex.

Over the last twelve months, operating cash flow was $127.5 billion, and capital expenditures were $115.9 billion (per the cash flow statement). Free cash flow remains positive, allowing the company to pay dividends and repurchase shares: $10.2 billion was returned to shareholders in the quarter.

Shares have risen 27% since the report, and the valuation at 20.1x EV/EBITDA LTM is above its own three-year average (24.3x – but that is the EV/EBITDA average, not EV/EBITDAC)

The share price before the release was $393.35; it fell 0.7% on the release day but had risen 27% from the post-release level by September 4. Current market cap is $3,673.7 billion, implying an EV/EBITDA LTM multiple of 20.1x.

This is above its own three-year average EV/EBITDA (24.3x – but that is the EV/EBITDA average, not EV/EBITDAC). In other words, the market already values the company more richly than its three-year average, and further price appreciation would require either faster EBITDA growth or lower discount rates.

On the portal's model, upside to fair value is +13% – this is our own calculation, not market consensus

Our fundamental value-creation model, based on EBITDA growth and a target multiple, suggests that MICROSOFT CORP shares have upside potential of about 13% to fair value. This is a portal model calculation, not a recommendation or target price.

The shares are held in our live model strategies on the portal: US Tech and AI leaders. This is a fact, not an argument for a recommendation – membership follows each strategy's own screen.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

MICROSOFT CORP's Q4 fiscal 2026 report was strong: revenue and profit grew at double-digit rates, margins expanded, and Azure continues to grow 43% year-over-year. However, part of the profit was a one-time Anthropic gain, and capital expenditures doubled, warranting attention to cash flow. Shares have risen 27% since the report, and the valuation is now above its own three-year average, limiting further upside. We rate the stock 'rather attractive': fundamental drivers are strong, but the price already reflects much of the good news.