PEPSICO INC: Q2 profit up 136%, but almost all of it comes from year-ago impairment charges

9 июля 2026 года PEPSICO INC раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года. Выручка выросла на 6,4% до 24 181 млн долл., EBITDA — на 89,5% до 4 920 млн долл., чистая прибыль — на 136% до 2 981 млн долл., однако столь впечатляющая динамика прибыли объясняется базовым эффектом: год назад компания признала обесценение брендов Rockstar и Be & Cheery на 1 860 млн долл. На текущей цене акция выглядит скорее привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA 12,9 заметно ниже собственного трёхлетнего среднего 17,3, а дивидендная доходность 4,2% остаётся выше среднерыночной.

Key takeaways

— Revenue grew 6.4% driven by 2.4% organic growth and FX translation

— EBITDA jumped 89.5% in Q2 due to absence of one-off impairments

— Net profit rose 136% thanks to base effect

— Operating margin expanded 875 bps to 16.6%

— Net debt/EBITDA stands at 2.43, net debt down $2.9bn over the year

— Company reaffirms 2026 guidance: organic growth 2–4%

— Portal's model implies +60% upside for the share

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue grew 6.4% driven by 2.4% organic growth and FX translation

In Q2 2026, PEPSICO INC's revenue reached $24,181 million, up 6.4% year-over-year. Organic growth, excluding currency and M&A effects, was only 2.4% – the main driver. The rest came from FX translation (2.2 percentage points) and net acquisitions/divestitures (1.8 points).

Organic growth was driven by effective net pricing and a small contribution from organic volume. In North America, beverages showed strong revenue growth thanks to 2025 acquisitions and organic growth, while convenient foods revenue declined due to lower net pricing. International segments – Asia Pacific Foods, International Beverages Franchise, Europe, Middle East and Africa – delivered solid organic volume growth.

EBITDA jumped 89.5% in Q2 due to absence of one-off impairments

EBITDA for Q2 2026 rose 89.5% to $4,920 million from $2,596 million a year earlier. This jump is not due to improved operations but because in Q2 2025 the company recognized impairment of Rockstar and Be & Cheery brands of $1,860 million, which depressed the base.

Excluding these one-offs, operating profit rose only 4% (core operating profit), and core operating margin contracted 40 bps to 16.8%. That is, underlying profitability slightly declined due to higher operating costs, only partially offset by productivity gains and pricing.

Net profit rose 136% thanks to base effect

Net profit in Q2 2026 reached $2,981 million versus $1,263 million a year earlier – up 136%. The main reason is the same base effect: last year operating profit was reduced by $1,860 million due to impairment of intangible assets.

Excluding one-offs, adjusted EPS (core EPS) rose only 4% to $2.20. This is a more realistic picture: operations are growing moderately, not at triple-digit rates seen in GAAP results.

Operating margin expanded 875 bps to 16.6%

In Q2 2026, GAAP operating margin was 16.6% versus 7.9% a year earlier – an expansion of 875 bps. However, this expansion is almost entirely due to the absence of last year's impairments: without them, margin barely changed.

Core operating margin, which excludes one-offs, was 16.8% versus 17.2% a year earlier – a contraction of 40 bps. Thus, the real margin trend is slightly negative.

Net debt/EBITDA stands at 2.43, net debt down $2.9bn over the year

At the end of Q2 2026, PEPSICO INC's net debt was $42,963 million, down $2.9 billion from a year earlier ($45,911 million at end of Q2 2025). Net debt to EBITDA for the trailing twelve months is 2.43.

Operating cash flow for the last twelve months was $12,100 million, capital spending about $4,300 million over the same period (sum of quarterly figures). The company continues returning cash to shareholders: trailing dividend yield is 4.2%, and in 2026 it plans to return about $8.9 billion through dividends and buybacks.

Company reaffirms 2026 guidance: organic growth 2–4%

PEPSICO INC reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance: organic revenue growth expected at 2–4%, core EPS (constant currency) up 4–6%. The company also expects capital spending below 5% of revenue and free cash flow conversion of at least 80%.

Management notes that FX translation will add about 1 percentage point to revenue and core EPS growth, and 2025 acquisitions another 1 point to revenue growth. Thus, total revenue growth in 2026 is expected at 4–6%.

Portal's model implies +60% upside for the share

Our fundamental value-creation model, based on EBITDA growth times target multiple, shows the share trades 60% below its fair value. This means at the current price of $142.51, the upside to the model price is +60%.

The share is held in our strategies Frontier AI Selection and US Leaders (FVC quality) on the portal. Membership in strategies is not a recommendation to buy, but merely reflects the share's fit with selection criteria.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Отчёт за второй квартал 2026 года показывает, что трёхзначный рост прибыли – это артефакт базы: год назад были разовые списания на 1,86 млрд долл. Реальная динамика скромная: органический рост 2,4%, core EPS +4%, core маржа немного снизилась. При этом компания сохраняет сильный денежный поток, снижает долг и подтверждает прогнозы. С учётом мультипликатора EV/EBITDA 12,9 против трёхлетнего среднего 17,3 и дивидендной доходности 4,2%, акция выглядит скорее привлекательно, особенно если органический рост ускорится во втором полугодии.