RAMBUS INC: record revenue and margin, yet shares fall 11% after earnings

27 июля RAMBUS INC раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: выручка выросла на 20,4% до 207,4 млн долл., EBITDA — на 38,1% до 84,1 млн долл., чистая прибыль — на 16,7% до 67,6 млн долл.. Несмотря на сильные цифры, акции после отчёта подешевели на 11%, и при текущей оценке мы видим бумагу скорее привлекательной: рост ускорился, маржа расширилась, а мультипликатор EV/EBITDA ниже собственного трёхлетнего среднего.

Key takeaways

— Выручка ускорилась до +20,4% благодаря рекордным продажам продуктов

— Маржа EBITDA выросла на 5,7 п.п. до 44,0% на фоне операционного рычага

— Чистая прибыль выросла на 16,7%, но медленнее выручки из-за роста расходов

— Операционный денежный поток во втором квартале упал до 61,2 млн долл. с 94,4 млн год назад

— Компания дала оптимистичный прогноз на третий квартал: выручка 210–216 млн долл.

— Акции после отчёта снизились на 11%, несмотря на сильные результаты

— Оценка: EV/EBITDA 33,0 против среднего 37,0 за три года

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue accelerated to +20.4% on record product sales

In Q2 2026, RAMBUS INC revenue reached $207.4 million, up 20.4% year over year, exceeding the company's guidance of $192–198 million and setting an all-time high. The main driver was product revenue, which grew 22% year over year to $99.2 million, also a record. Royalties contributed $84.2 million (+22.8%), and contract and other revenue $24.0 million (+7.6%).

The acceleration is also visible in the trend: in the prior quarter, revenue grew only 8.1% year over year, now 20.4%. The company attributes this to strong demand for data-center and AI infrastructure solutions, including chipsets for DDR5 9600 memory modules and PCIe 7 Switch IP.

EBITDA margin expanded 5.7 p.p. to 44.0% on operating leverage

EBITDA in Q2 grew 38.1% year over year to $84.1 million, with EBITDA margin reaching 44.0% versus 38.3% a year earlier. The margin expansion came from operating leverage: revenue grew faster than operating expenses. GAAP operating expenses rose 24.5% to $92.7 million, but included one-off items — $3.3 million in restructuring charges and $1.6 million in amortization of acquired intangibles.

Excluding these items, non-GAAP operating income rose 18.5% to $93.7 million, and non-GAAP operating margin was 45% versus 46% a year ago. The decline in non-GAAP margin reflects increased R&D investment: research and development expenses grew 10.3% to $51.1 million.

Net profit rose 16.7%, but slower than revenue due to higher expenses

Net profit in Q2 was $67.6 million, up 16.7% year over year. Profit growth lagged revenue because operating expenses rose faster — partly due to one-off items. Excluding them, non-GAAP net profit grew 25.7% to $84.4 million, and non-GAAP EPS rose to $0.77 from $0.62.

Net margin declined slightly to 32.6% from 33.6%, as net profit growth trailed revenue. In absolute terms, profit remains high, and the company generates steady cash flow.

Operating cash flow in Q2 fell to $61.2 million from $94.4 million a year earlier

Operating cash flow in Q2 2026 was $61.2 million versus $94.4 million a year earlier. The 35% decline came despite higher profit — likely due to inventory buildup: inventories on the balance sheet rose from $44.1 million at end-2025 to $74.8 million by June 30, 2026. The company is building inventory ahead of expected sales growth.

Capital expenditures in Q2 were $9.1 million, up from $6.5 million a year ago. Free cash flow thus fell more sharply — to roughly $52 million from $88 million. However, over the trailing twelve months, operating cash flow remains strong at $360.0 million.

Company guides optimistic Q3: revenue $210–216 million

RAMBUS INC expects Q3 2026 revenue in the range of $210–216 million, implying continued growth of roughly 18–21% year over year. The company also guides record product revenue of $110–116 million, up 11–17% from Q2 levels. Royalties, in contrast, are expected lower at $69–75 million versus $84.2 million in Q2.

Non-GAAP EPS is guided at $0.75–0.82, above the actual $0.77 in Q2. The guidance looks confident and confirms sustained demand for AI-infrastructure products.

Shares fell 11% after earnings despite strong results

RAMBUS INC shares closed at $96.01 before the release, rose 0.4% on the day, but fell 11% by September 4. Thus, the market reacted negatively over several weeks, despite revenue and profit beats.

A possible reason is profit-taking after a strong run: over the last twelve months, shares trade at a P/E of 40.1, notably above the market average. However, the company continues to grow at double-digit rates, and the pullback may have created a more attractive entry point.

Valuation: EV/EBITDA 33.0 versus 3-year average 37.0

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 33.0 — below the company's own three-year average of 37.0. P/E over the trailing twelve months is 40.1, reflecting high growth expectations. The company holds a net cash position: net debt is –$157.8 million, and net debt/EBITDA is –0.55.

On the portal's model, the share's upside to fair value is +13%. This is our own calculation based on EBITDA growth and a target multiple. Given accelerating growth and margin expansion, the valuation looks moderate, though not cheap.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

RAMBUS INC's Q2 2026 report is strong: revenue and EBITDA hit records, growth accelerated to 20.4%, and margin expanded to 44.0%. The company beat its own guidance and gave a confident outlook for Q3. However, operating cash flow declined notably due to inventory buildup, and shares fell 11% after the report — the market apparently considered the valuation stretched. Yet the EV/EBITDA multiple (33.0) is below the three-year average (37.0), and the portal's model implies 13% upside. We view the share as rather attractive: strong business and moderate valuation outweigh cash-flow concerns.