Super Micro Computer: quarterly profit up sixfold, but trailing operating cash flow turned negative at -$6.8 billion

21 июля Super Micro Computer раскрыла предварительные результаты за четвёртый квартал 2026 финансового года (закончился 30 июня 2026 года). Выручка выросла на 93,2% год к году до 11,1 млрд долларов, EBITDA — на 261,9%, а чистая прибыль — на 503,6%, до 1,18 млрд долларов. Акции на следующий день подорожали на 7%, а с момента публикации к 4 сентября — ещё на 66,1%. При такой динамике и мультипликаторе EV/EBITDA 7,0 против среднего за три года 25,4 бумага выглядит привлекательно, но минус 6,8 млрд долларов операционного денежного потока за последние 12 месяцев заставляет задать вопрос о качестве прибыли.

Key takeaways

— Quarterly revenue grew 93.2% to $11.1 billion, near the low end of guidance

— EBITDA margin doubled to 15.0% — the company cites a favorable product mix

— Quarterly net profit rose sixfold to $1.18 billion

— Trailing operating cash flow turned negative at -$6.8 billion

— Backlog hit a record: over $60 billion in new orders during the quarter

— EV/EBITDA of 7.0 is 3.6x below its three-year average

— Net debt is negative: cash exceeds debt by $3.5 billion

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Quarterly revenue grew 93.2% to $11.1 billion, near the low end of guidance

In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, Super Micro Computer reported revenue of $11.1 billion, up 93.2% year over year. The company had guided to $11.0–12.5 billion, so the result came in near the low end.

Growth slowed from the prior quarter's 122.7% year-over-year increase, yet this is the second consecutive quarter with growth above 90%, confirming sustained demand for AI server solutions.

EBITDA margin doubled to 15.0% — the company cites a favorable product mix

EBITDA for the quarter came in at $1.67 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 15.0% versus 8.0% a year earlier. The press release attributes the improvement to a favorable customer and product mix.

The margin expansion is the key surprise of the report: the company had guided gross margin at 8.2–8.4%, but actual figures came in significantly higher. This suggests the order mix shifted toward more expensive configurations.

Quarterly net profit rose sixfold to $1.18 billion

Net profit for the reported quarter reached $1.18 billion, six times the $195.2 million a year earlier. The growth was driven by both higher revenue and margin expansion.

Net margin for the quarter was 10.6% versus 3.4% in the same quarter last year. The profit appears clean: the report makes no mention of one-off gains that could have inflated it.

Trailing operating cash flow turned negative at -$6.8 billion

Over the trailing twelve months, Super Micro Computer's operating cash flow was -$6.8 billion. In the reported quarter, OCF was positive at $747 million, but the prior quarter saw a -$6.6 billion outflow.

Negative OCF for the year is a warning sign: profit is not yet converting into cash. The company attributes this to rising inventories and receivables to fulfill record backlog, but investors should watch working capital trends.

Backlog hit a record: over $60 billion in new orders during the quarter

In the fourth quarter, the company received new orders exceeding $60 billion, lifting backlog to a record level at the end of fiscal 2026. These orders are expected to be delivered over future quarters.

Such order intake is the main argument that current revenue growth is not a one-off spike but the start of a long-term cycle. However, the company cautions that some orders may be cancelled or delayed.

EV/EBITDA of 7.0 is 3.6x below its three-year average

The current EV/EBITDA multiple based on trailing twelve months stands at 7.0, versus a three-year average of 25.4. Even after EBITDA growth, the stock trades well below its historical valuation.

P/E LTM is 11.0, which also looks moderate for a company with revenue growth above 90%. On the portal's model, the upside to fair value is +8%.

Net debt is negative: cash exceeds debt by $3.5 billion

At quarter-end, net debt stood at -$3.5 billion, meaning cash and equivalents exceeded total debt. The net debt to EBITDA ratio for the trailing twelve months was -1.74.

The company pays no dividend and does not repurchase shares in significant amounts, reinvesting cash for growth. Capital expenditures in the quarter were modest at $28 million, typical for a contract manufacturing model.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Super Micro Computer delivered a strong quarter: revenue grew 93.2%, EBITDA margin doubled, and net profit jumped sixfold. Record backlog and negative net debt make the company financially solid, and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.0 versus a three-year average of 25.4 points to undervaluation. However, negative operating cash flow over the trailing twelve months is a serious reason for caution: profit is not yet converting into cash. If the company can fix this imbalance in coming quarters, the shares have significant upside; if not, the current valuation could prove a trap.