S&P Global: revenue up 10%, but the real story is margin expansion to 55.4%

28 апреля S&P Global раскрыла результаты за первый квартал 2026 года: выручка выросла на 10,4% до 4 171 млн долл., EBITDA – на 24,1% до 2 309 млн долл., чистая прибыль – на 28% до 1 395 млн долл.. Компания вновь удивила рынок маржой: EBITDA-маржа достигла 55,4% против 49,2% годом ранее. Акции выглядят привлекательно: сильный органический рост, расширение маржи и снижение долга поддерживают оценку, несмотря на высокий абсолютный уровень.

Key takeaways

— Revenue +10.4% driven by growth across all segments, especially Ratings and Indices

— EBITDA margin expanded 6.2 pp to 55.4% on operating leverage and cost control

— Net profit +28% includes one-off gains on disposals, but operating dynamics are also strong

— Debt fell by 1.8 billion dollars in the quarter to 8.8 billion, thanks to strong cash flow

— Company raised revenue guidance and reaffirmed plans to return 100% of adjusted free cash flow to shareholders

Attractiveness

Key figures, KZT bn

Revenue +10.4% driven by growth across all segments, especially Ratings and Indices

In the first quarter of 2026, S&P Global's revenue reached 4,171 million dollars, up 10.4% year-over-year. Growth was broad-based: Ratings segment grew 13% (to 1,302 million), Indices – 17% (to 519 million), Market Intelligence – 8% (to 1,296 million), Energy – 7% (to 652 million), Mobility – 8% (to 454 million).

Key drivers were transaction and non-transaction revenues in Ratings: they grew 15% and 11% respectively, reflecting a rebound in debt capital markets. In Indices, asset-linked fees (+18%) and sales usage-based royalties (+20%) were particularly strong. Subscription revenue overall grew 6%, providing a stable base.

EBITDA margin expanded 6.2 pp to 55.4% on operating leverage and cost control

EBITDA for the first quarter of 2026 reached 2,309 million dollars, up 24.1% year-over-year. The margin jumped to 55.4% from 49.2% – a significant improvement driven by revenue growing faster than expenses: operating expenses rose only 6% (to 2,344 million dollars), while revenue grew 10.4%.

Operating profit increased 27% to 2,002 million dollars, and operating margin reached 48.0% versus 42% a year earlier. Margin expansion was seen across all segments, but was particularly strong in Market Intelligence, where operating margin rose from 18% to 34% – partly due to a one-time gain on asset sales (172 million dollars), but even without it the dynamics are positive.

Net profit +28% includes one-off gains on disposals, but operating dynamics are also strong

Net income attributable to S&P Global shareholders in the first quarter of 2026 was 1,395 million dollars, up 28% year-over-year. Growth was partly driven by one-time gains on dispositions of 175 million dollars pre-tax, mainly from the sale of part of the Market Intelligence business.

Excluding one-off items, adjusted net income grew 10% to 1,479 million dollars, and adjusted diluted EPS rose 14% to 4.97 dollars. Even without one-off gains, the company shows solid growth, supported by operating dynamics and share buybacks (1 billion dollars of shares repurchased in the first quarter, share count down 3%).

Debt fell by 1.8 billion dollars in the quarter to 8.8 billion, thanks to strong cash flow

Net debt at the end of the first quarter of 2026 was 8,811 million dollars, down 1.8 billion from the end of 2025 (10,625 million). The decrease was driven by operating cash flow of 1,037 million dollars and proceeds from asset sales (345 million dollars), which partially offset share buybacks of 1 billion dollars.

Over the last twelve months, operating cash flow was 5,700 million dollars, providing comfortable debt coverage. Capital expenditures in the first quarter were minimal – only 27 million dollars, typical for an asset-light business.

Company raised revenue guidance and reaffirmed plans to return 100% of adjusted free cash flow to shareholders

S&P Global raised its 2026 revenue growth guidance to 6.3–8.3% (GAAP) from previous 6.0–8.0% (organic constant currency growth maintained at 6.0–8.0%). Adjusted diluted EPS guidance was reaffirmed in the range of 19.40–19.65 dollars, implying solid growth versus 2025.

The company reaffirmed its intention to return 100% or more of adjusted free cash flow to shareholders in 2026 through dividends and buybacks. In the first quarter, 1 billion dollars of shares were already repurchased, and the quarterly dividend is 0.97 dollars per share. This makes the stock attractive for income-oriented investors.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Первый квартал 2026 года S&P Global провела сильно: выручка выросла на 10,4%, EBITDA-маржа достигла 55,4%, а чистая прибыль подскочила на 28%. Часть прибыли обеспечена разовыми доходами от продаж, но даже без них операционная динамика впечатляет: скорректированный EPS вырос на 14%. Долг снизился, а компания повысила прогноз по выручке и подтвердила щедрые выплаты акционерам. При текущей оценке акции выглядят привлекательно для долгосрочных инвесторов, хотя высокая зависимость от цикличности рейтингового бизнеса требует осторожности.