UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC: Q2 profit up 61%, but revenue barely grows

16 июля UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: выручка выросла всего на 0,4% до 112,0 млрд долл., зато чистая прибыль подскочила на 61% до 5,5 млрд долл. благодаря резкому улучшению маржинальности. Акции после отчёта подешевели на 5,1%, и при текущей цене они выглядят скорее привлекательно: компания торгуется с мультипликатором EV/EBITDA 15,4x против среднего за три года 14,4x, а модель портала даёт потенциал роста +34%.

Key takeaways

— Revenue barely grew: +0.4% in Q2 2026

— EBITDA margin expanded from 5.6% to 8.1% on lower medical costs

— Net profit jumped 61% on operating leverage and a lower tax rate

— Operating cash flow of $11.1 billion, or 1.9x net income

— Leverage: net debt / EBITDA LTM at 2.01x

— Company raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $19.50–$20.00

— Shares trade at a premium to their own 3-year history, but the portal model sees +34%

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

1. Revenue barely grew: +0.4% in Q2 2026

In Q2 2026, UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC revenue reached $112.0 billion, up just 0.4% year-over-year. Growth slowed from +12.9% in Q2 2025 to nearly zero — the weakest pace in years.

The main drag came from shrinking membership: UnitedHealthcare served 525,000 fewer consumers in the quarter, especially in Medicare Advantage (–965,000 since year-end) and Medicaid. UnitedHealthcare revenue fell 0.1% to $86.0 billion, while Optum Health revenue dropped 5% on ~700,000 fewer value-based-care patients.

2. EBITDA margin expanded from 5.6% to 8.1% on lower medical costs

EBITDA in Q2 2026 reached $9.0 billion versus $6.2 billion a year earlier, with the EBITDA margin up from 5.6% to 8.1%. The key driver was lower medical costs: the medical care ratio improved from 89.4% to 86.7% on benefit design changes, pricing discipline, and medical cost management.

Operating profit rose from $5.2 billion to $8.0 billion, lifting the operating margin from 4.6% to 7.1%. At UnitedHealthcare, the operating margin doubled from 2.4% to 4.6%; at Optum, it expanded from 4.6% to 6.2%.

3. Net profit jumped 61% on operating leverage and a lower tax rate

Net profit attributable to UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC shareholders in Q2 2026 was $5.5 billion versus $3.4 billion a year earlier — up 61%. EPS rose from $3.74 to $6.04.

The growth came not only from operating leverage: the effective tax rate fell from 12.5% to 18.6% (Q2 2025 had an abnormally low rate due to one-offs), adding roughly $0.4 billion to net profit. The quarter also included a $61 million loss on the sale of a subsidiary, which was immaterial.

4. Operating cash flow of $11.1 billion, or 1.9x net income

Operating cash flow in Q2 2026 reached $11.1 billion, or 1.9x net income. The company attributes this to strong earnings, disciplined working capital management, and a substantial government payment.

Capex for the quarter was just $0.8 billion, typical for an insurance business. Free cash flow of roughly $10.3 billion in the quarter comfortably covers dividends ($4.1 billion paid in H1) and share buybacks ($1.6 billion in H1).

5. Leverage: net debt / EBITDA LTM at 2.01x

At the end of Q2 2026, UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC net debt stood at $54.0 billion, with net debt / EBITDA over the trailing twelve months at 2.01x. This is a moderate level for an A-rated company with stable cash flow.

Net debt fell by $7.7 billion in the quarter on strong operating cash flow and lower debt. The company reaffirmed its target debt-to-capital ratio of about 40% by year-end; it stood at 41.2% as of June 30, 2026.

6. Company raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $19.50–$20.00

Along with the report, UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance from 'above $17.75' to a range of $19.50–$20.00. Operating profit guidance was lifted from 'above $24.0 billion' to 'above $25.45 billion', and operating cash flow from 'above $18 billion' to roughly $24 billion.

The upgrade reflects strong H1 results and improved expectations for H2. The company also plans to repurchase at least $5 billion of shares this year (already $4 billion by mid-July).

7. Shares trade at a premium to their own 3-year history, but the portal model sees +34%

After the report, UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC shares rose 1.2% on the release day but lost 5.1% from that level by September 4, 2026. Current market cap is $359.6 billion, P/E LTM is 25.5x, EV/EBITDA LTM is 15.4x versus the 3-year average of 14.4x.

Thus, the market values the company slightly above its own history. However, the portal's model, based on EBITDA growth times a target multiple, puts the upside to fair value at +34%. The stock is held in the US Leaders (FVC quality) strategy on the portal.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Q2 2026 results showed an impressive recovery in profitability: EBITDA margin expanded from 5.6% to 8.1%, net profit rose 61%, and cash flow reached 1.9x net income. The company raised its full-year guidance, confirming the trend's durability. However, revenue is barely growing, and all profit growth came from lower medical costs and a low tax base. At the current price, shares trade at a slight premium to their own history, but the portal model sees +34% upside. Verdict — rather attractive: if the company stabilizes membership, the model's undervaluation could materialize.