Sector: Diversified mining
ZA_AGL
Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.
Shares: yahoo_fundamentals_timeseries/AGL.JO
Monetary columns are in B USD, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.
| Date | Period | Status | RevenueB USD | Operating profitB USD | D&AB USD | EBITDAB USD | Net profitB USD | Operating CFB USD | Capex + M&AB USD | AssetsB USD | EquityB USD | ROE (annualized) | Net debtB USD | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | FY 2025 (12M) | OK | 18.5 y/y 4.5% | 4.0 y/y 2.4% | 2.3 y/y 5.2% | 6.3 y/y 3.4% | -3.7 y/y — | 5.5 | -3.4 | 56.0 y/y -13.7% | 18.0 y/y -13.4% | -19.3% | 8.1 | — |
| 2024-12-31 | FY 2024 (12M) | OK | 17.7 y/y -42.1% | 3.9 y/y -40.1% | 2.2 y/y -18.5% | 6.1 y/y -33.8% | -3.1 y/y -1184.1% | 8.1 | -4.1 | 64.9 y/y -2.5% | 20.8 y/y -17.1% | -13.4% | 9.5 | — |
| 2023-12-31 | FY 2023 (12M) | OK | 30.7 y/y — | 6.5 y/y — | 2.7 y/y — | 9.2 y/y — | 0.3 y/y — | 6.5 | -6.0 | 66.5 y/y — | 25.1 y/y — | — | 9.8 | — |
Quarterly values ($ mln)
Year-over-year change
FCF ($ mln)
Net debt / cash ($ mln)
Current 98spot vs LTM +1%
Target market cap from conservative EBITDA and the historical EV/EBITDA
Upside: -86.1%
Main driver: Iron Ore -5% vs LTM; revenue ×1.01 vs costs ×1.04; EBITDA 4 046→3 213; at 4.7× EV/EBITDA → -86%.
Product prices — moves vs the LTM average
| Commodity | Share | Spot | LTM | 3-yr | vs LTM, $ | 3y vs LTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore (rev) | +30% | 98.30 | 103.72 | 110.74 | -5% | +7% |
| Copper (rev) | +25% | 13 752.12 | 12 244.66 | 10 658.98 | +12% | -13% |
| Coking coal AU (rev) | +10% | 237.17 | 215.46 | 239.89 | +10% | +11% |
| Platinum (rev) | +8% | 1 640.30 | 1 808.14 | 1 287.04 | -9% | -29% |
| Palladium (rev) | +7% | 1 269.00 | 1 460.88 | 1 207.71 | -13% | -17% |
How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → target market cap
| 1 · Reported baseline (LTM) | |
| LTM revenue | 18 546 |
| LTM EBITDA | 4 046 |
| LTM cash costs (revenue − EBITDA) | 14 500 |
| 2 · Revenue projection | |
| Revenue multiplier — spot | ×1.009 (+1%) |
| = Spot revenue | 18 705 |
| Revenue multiplier — 3y price | ×0.964 (-4%) |
| = 3-year-price revenue | 17 880 |
| 3 · Costs projection | |
| Cost multiplier — spot | ×1.040 (+4%) |
| = Spot cash costs | 15 080 |
| Cost multiplier — 3y price | ×1.040 (+4%) |
| = 3-year-price cash costs | 15 080 |
| 4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs) | |
| = Spot EBITDA | 3 625 |
| = 3-year-price EBITDA | 2 800 |
| Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg) | 3 213 |
| 5 · Valuation → target market cap | |
| Historical EV/EBITDA (75th pct) | 4.7x |
| Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA | 15 060 |
| Net debt | 8 089 |
| Target market cap = EV − net debt | 6 971 |
| Current market cap | 50 239 |
Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = -86.1%
Spot model vs reported — what the spot model projected (trailing-LTM base brought to the period × the period's commodity-price move) against the actual report, per reported period (quarter, half-year or full year — per the filer's calendar); amounts in USD mln. green = reported above projection, pink = below.
| Period | Act. rev | Model rev | Δ rev | Act. EBITDA | Model EBITDA | Δ EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 FY | 30 652 | 33 596 | -8.8% | 7 270 | 10 012 | -27.4% |
| 2024 FY | 17 745 | 29 484 | -39.8% | 1 610 | 5 164 | -68.8% |
| 2025 FY | 18 546 | 18 394 | +0.8% | 4 046 | 1 613 | +150.8% |
Projected EV/EBITDA 13.1x · target 75th pct (3y) 13.4x · LTM avg 14.2x
| Date | Per share | Details | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | 257.4368 ZAR | Ex-dividend: 257.4368 ZAR per share | Paid | Yahoo Finance (ex-div) |
| 2025-08-20 | 125.0172 ZAR | Ex-dividend: 125.0172 ZAR per share | Paid | Yahoo Finance (ex-div) |
| 2025-03-12 | 458.5875 ZAR | Ex-dividend: 458.5875 ZAR per share | Paid | Yahoo Finance (ex-div) |
| 2024-08-14 | 875.1896 ZAR | Ex-dividend: 875.1896 ZAR per share | Paid | Yahoo Finance (ex-div) |
| 2024-03-13 | 880.0811 ZAR | Ex-dividend: 880.0811 ZAR per share | Paid | Yahoo Finance (ex-div) |
| 2023-08-16 | 1 100.9005 ZAR | Ex-dividend: 1 100.9005 ZAR per share | Paid | Yahoo Finance (ex-div) |
| 2023-03-15 | 1 542.0596 ZAR | Ex-dividend: 1 542.0596 ZAR per share | Paid | Yahoo Finance (ex-div) |
| 2022-08-17 | 2 373.5083 ZAR | Ex-dividend: 2 373.5083 ZAR per share | Paid | Yahoo Finance (ex-div) |
| 2022-03-16 | 3 097.5513 ZAR | Ex-dividend: 3 097.5513 ZAR per share | Paid | Yahoo Finance (ex-div) |
| 2021-08-18 | 4 223.659 ZAR | Ex-dividend: 4 223.659 ZAR per share | Paid | Yahoo Finance (ex-div) |
KASE: status follows wording in the news headline (paid vs intends to pay). Yahoo: amounts are cash dividends per share on ex-dividend dates (UTC calendar date). stockscope.uz (UZ): amounts are per share in UZS by publication date (not necessarily ex-div).
Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)