Fortescue: profit falls faster than EBITDA, but net debt is near zero and dividend yield is 6.1%

25 августа Fortescue раскрыла результаты за финансовый год, закончившийся 30 июня 2026 года. Выручка выросла на 9,2% до 16 800 млн долларов, но EBITDA снизилась на 3,7%, а чистая прибыль упала на 14,9% до 2 870 млн. При текущей цене акции выглядят скорее привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA на уровне 4,9x соответствует среднему за три года, долг минимален, а дивидендная доходность превышает 6%.

Key takeaways

— Revenue grew 9.2%, but EBITDA fell 3.7% — margin compressed from 49.0% to 43.2%

— Net profit declined 14.9% — the rate of decline outpaced EBITDA

— Net debt is almost zero: 228 million against EBITDA of 8,006 million over 12 months

— Dividend yield of 6.1% — above the company's historical average

— Valuation in line with its own history: EV/EBITDA 4.9x versus 4.95x three-year average

— The portal's model puts the share's upside at -59%

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue grew 9.2%, but EBITDA fell 3.7% — margin compressed from 49.0% to 43.2%

For the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026, Fortescue's revenue reached 16,800 million dollars, up 9.2% from the prior year. The growth was driven by higher iron ore prices and increased shipment volumes.

EBITDA, however, declined 3.7% to 8,006 million dollars. EBITDA margin contracted from 49.0% to 43.2%. Pressure came from higher operating costs and inflation, which were not fully offset by revenue growth.

Net profit declined 14.9% — the rate of decline outpaced EBITDA

Net profit for the reported period fell 14.9% to 2,870 million dollars. The decline was deeper than the EBITDA drop, indicating higher depreciation or financial expenses.

Net margin contracted from 21.9% to 17.0%. Return on equity stood at 9.4% — a moderate level for a mining company.

Net debt is almost zero: 228 million against EBITDA of 8,006 million over 12 months

As of the latest balance sheet date, Fortescue's net debt stood at 228 million dollars. The net debt to EBITDA ratio for the trailing twelve months is 0.03, indicating an almost debt-free balance sheet.

Over the last twelve months, net debt decreased by 0.3 billion dollars, and by 0.2 billion since the previous reporting date. Operating cash flow for the twelve months reached 6,800 million dollars, comfortably covering capital expenditure and dividends.

Dividend yield of 6.1% — above the company's historical average

Over the trailing twelve months, Fortescue paid dividends yielding 6.1% at the current price. This is noticeably above the three-year average dividend yield, making the share attractive for income-oriented investors.

Payments are backed by strong operating cash flow of 6,800 million dollars over twelve months and minimal debt. However, if iron ore prices fall or capital expenditure rises, the company may cut dividends, as it has done in previous cycles.

Valuation in line with its own history: EV/EBITDA 4.9x versus 4.95x three-year average

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 4.9x, almost exactly in line with the three-year average of 4.95x. The share looks neither overvalued nor undervalued relative to its own history.

P/E for the trailing twelve months is 13.6x. Market capitalization is 39,128 million dollars. With almost zero debt, the valuation reflects expectations of stable cash flows but leaves no margin of safety in case of a downturn.

The portal's model puts the share's upside at -59%

According to the portal's model, which reprices EBITDA at current commodity prices and applies a target EV/EBITDA multiple, the fair value of the share is 59% below the current market price. This signals significant overvaluation under the model's conservative assumptions.

However, the model is sensitive to iron ore price forecasts and does not account for potential production growth. Investors should treat this result as one reference point, not as a precise forecast.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Fortescue reported 9.2% revenue growth but a decline in EBITDA and net profit, reflecting margin compression. The company maintains almost zero net debt and generates strong operating cash flow, supporting a dividend yield of 6.1%. However, valuation in line with its own history and the portal's model signal of 59% overvaluation warrant caution. At the current price, the share looks rather attractive for dividend investors, but upside is limited unless iron ore prices recover.