Anglo American PLC: record revenue fails to offset 42.6% EBITDA drop on fuel costs

23 июля Anglo American PLC раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: выручка выросла на 16,3% до рекордных 16,7 млрд долларов, но EBITDA упала на 42,6% до 924 млн долларов, а чистая прибыль сократилась на 88,1% до 71 млн долларов. Акции на релизе выросли на 2,9%, а с тех пор прибавили ещё 18,3%, что говорит о позитивном восприятии рынком, несмотря на слабую прибыльность. Вердикт: бумага выглядит скорее привлекательной благодаря сильному спросу и росту выручки, но высокая долговая нагрузка и волатильность топливных цен требуют осторожности.

Key takeaways

— Record revenue in Q2 2026 grew 16.3% driven by strong demand across all segments and cabins

— EBITDA fell 42.6% due to an 83% surge in fuel costs, which the company could only offset half of

— Net profit dropped 88.1% to $71 million, reflecting margin pressure

— Operating cash flow of $471 million in the quarter fell short of capex of $822 million, indicating negative free cash flow

— Net debt rose by $1.2 billion during the quarter to $34.6 billion, with net debt/EBITDA at 10.8 times

— Dividend yield of 0.69% is below the key rate, and payouts are uncertain given weak profitability

— EV/EBITDA multiple of 30.7 is well above historical levels, reflecting market optimism

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Record revenue in Q2 2026 grew 16.3% driven by strong demand across all segments and cabins

In Q2 2026, Anglo American PLC's revenue reached $16.7 billion, up 16.3% year-over-year, which the company calls a record quarterly figure. Growth was driven by strong demand across all commercial pillars: premium revenue per passenger rose 13.4%, Main Cabin 8.8%, domestic 10.6%, and international entities from 6.6% to 15.1%.

Revenue grew faster than capacity: available seat miles increased 5.4%, while revenue per available seat mile rose 10.3%. This indicates the company is not just adding capacity but also improving pricing, which is crucial amid rising costs.

EBITDA fell 42.6% due to an 83% surge in fuel costs, which the company could only offset half of

EBITDA in Q2 2026 was $924 million versus $1,611 million a year earlier, down 42.6%. The main reason is a sharp rise in fuel prices: fuel expenses increased 83% to $4.9 billion, up $2.2 billion year-over-year. The company could offset only about half of this increase through higher fares.

EBITDA margin fell to 5.5% from 11.2% a year earlier. Even excluding special items, operating margin was only 2.7% versus 8.2% in Q2 2025. The company expects fuel costs to rise another $1.7 billion year-over-year in Q3, continuing pressure on profitability.

Net profit dropped 88.1% to $71 million, reflecting margin pressure

Net profit in Q2 2026 was $71 million versus $599 million a year earlier, down 88.1%. Net margin fell to 0.4% from 4.2%. Even adjusted net income, excluding special items, dropped 84.2% to $99 million.

The decline reflects not only fuel pressure but also rising other operating costs: salaries up 5.9%, regional expenses up 7.5%, maintenance up 10.8%. Interest expenses, in contrast, fell 5.5% to $409 million, slightly cushioning the blow.

Operating cash flow of $471 million in the quarter fell short of capex of $822 million, indicating negative free cash flow

In Q2 2026, operating cash flow was $471 million, while capital expenditures reached $822 million, resulting in negative free cash flow of $351 million. Over the trailing twelve months, operating cash flow was $3,100 million, and capex for the same period was about $3,800 million (sum of quarterly figures), also indicating a deficit.

The free cash flow deficit explains why the company has to borrow: net debt rose by $1.2 billion during the quarter to $34.6 billion. Over the past twelve months, debt decreased by $1.6 billion, suggesting some improvement on an annual basis, but quarterly dynamics remain strained.

Net debt rose by $1.2 billion during the quarter to $34.6 billion, with net debt/EBITDA at 10.8 times

At the end of Q2 2026, net debt stood at $34,612 million, up $1.2 billion from the previous reporting period. Over the trailing twelve months, debt decreased by $1.6 billion, indicating gradual reduction, but the level remains high.

Net debt to EBITDA for the trailing twelve months is 10.8 times. This is a very high ratio, reflecting both significant debt burden and weak profitability. The company states its commitment to reducing debt and interest expenses, but at current EBITDA levels this will take time.

Dividend yield of 0.69% is below the key rate, and payouts are uncertain given weak profitability

Over the trailing twelve months, Anglo American PLC paid dividends yielding 0.69% at the current share price. This is significantly below the key rate, making the stock unattractive for income-focused investors.

With net profit of just $71 million in Q2 and negative free cash flow, dividend payments this year look uncertain. The company did not provide specific dividend guidance in the report, but based on comments, debt reduction is a priority. If profitability does not recover, dividend cuts or suspension become a likely scenario.

EV/EBITDA multiple of 30.7 is well above historical levels, reflecting market optimism

Anglo American PLC's market capitalization is $64,052 million, and EV/EBITDA for the trailing twelve months is 30.7. This is a very high valuation, especially given the 42.6% EBITDA decline in the reported quarter. The market, judging by the share price dynamics (+18.3% since the release), is pricing in a rapid recovery in profitability.

For comparison, with EBITDA of $3,222 million over twelve months and a market cap of $64 billion, even without debt, shares trade at about 20 times EBITDA. Including debt of $34.6 billion, EV/EBITDA reaches 30.7. Such a valuation is justified only if the company can significantly increase EBITDA in the coming quarters, for example, through lower fuel prices or further revenue growth.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The strength of Anglo American PLC's report was record revenue growth of 16.3% driven by strong demand and successful pricing. However, this growth was almost entirely offset by a sharp rise in fuel costs, leading to a 42.6% drop in EBITDA and an 88.1% decline in net profit. The company generates negative free cash flow, and debt burden remains high, questioning dividend policy. Shares rose 18.3% after the report, reflecting market optimism, but at the current EV/EBITDA of 30.7, investors should wait for confirmation of margin recovery. Verdict: rather attractive, but with high sensitivity to fuel prices and debt burden.