Archer-Daniels-Midland: Q2 profit quadruples, guidance raised again

4 августа 2026 года Archer-Daniels-Midland раскрыла результаты за второй квартал: чистая прибыль выросла на 314,6% год к году до 908 млн долларов, выручка – на 7,2% до 22 681 млн. Акции отреагировали ростом на 2,3% в день публикации и ещё на 10,9% к 9 сентября. На текущей цене бумага выглядит скорее привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA 15,5 заметно выше собственного трёхлетнего среднего 11,1, но компания повысила прогноз по скорректированной прибыли на акцию до 5,15–5,60 доллара, что подкреплено сильной динамикой сегментов.

Key takeaways

— Net profit quadrupled in Q2 on operating leverage and one-off items

— EBITDA margin doubled from 2.7% to 6.7% on better crushing and ethanol environment

— Debt burden remains moderate: net debt at 2.69x EBITDA for the last twelve months

— Capex is declining while operating cash flow stays positive

— Dividend yield of 2.4% is below historical levels, but the company keeps paying

— Company raised adjusted EPS guidance to $5.15–$5.60

— Shares trade at a premium to their own history, but the portal's model implies 32% upside

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

1. Net profit quadrupled in Q2 on operating leverage and one-off items

In Q2 2026, Archer-Daniels-Midland's net profit reached $908 million versus $219 million a year earlier – up 314.6%. The main contribution came from margin improvement in Ag Services & Oilseeds and Carbohydrate Solutions, where operating profit rose 129% and 22%, respectively.

Part of the growth is due to one-off items: the report cites net mark-to-market and timing gains of about $100 million in the crushing subsegment. Without them, the dynamics would have been less impressive but still strong: adjusted EPS rose 98% to $1.84.

2. EBITDA margin doubled from 2.7% to 6.7% on better crushing and ethanol environment

EBITDA margin in Q2 rose from 2.7% to 6.7% – the best level in recent quarters. The driver was strong margins in North American crushing and ethanol, supported by finalized RVO for 2026–2027 and elevated energy prices.

In Carbohydrate Solutions, operating profit rose 22% on strong ethanol margins, including policy incentives. Nutrition grew 51% on improvements in Human and Animal Nutrition.

3. Debt burden remains moderate: net debt at 2.69x EBITDA for the last twelve months

As of end-June 2026, Archer-Daniels-Midland's net debt stood at $8,743 million, with net debt to EBITDA for the last twelve months at 2.69. This is a moderate level for a company with stable operating cash flow.

During the quarter, net debt fell by $3.5 billion to $6,511 million at end-June. The decline was driven by strong operating cash flow and lower capex.

4. Capex is declining while operating cash flow stays positive

In Q2 2026, capital expenditures were $272 million, notably below $305 million a year earlier. The company confirmed its 2026 capex guidance of $1.3–1.5 billion.

Operating cash flow for the quarter was $1,149 million versus $4,298 million in Q2 2025, when there was a working capital release. Over the last twelve months, operating cash flow was $5,500 million, covering capex and dividends.

5. Dividend yield of 2.4% is below historical levels, but the company keeps paying

Over the last twelve months, Archer-Daniels-Midland paid dividends of $510 million in H1 2026 (versus $495 million a year earlier). Current dividend yield is 2.4%.

Given the payout policy and current profitability, the company can sustain payments. However, the yield is below its historical average – investors are pricing in growth rather than dividend appeal.

6. Company raised adjusted EPS guidance to $5.15–$5.60

Archer-Daniels-Midland raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.15–$5.60 from the prior range of $4.15–$4.70. The company expects improved results in crushing and ethanol thanks to a constructive environment, and continued recovery in Nutrition.

The guidance raise signals management's confidence in the sustainability of the current environment. However, the company notes it continues to monitor macroeconomic, geopolitical, and trade risks.

7. Shares trade at a premium to their own history, but the portal's model implies 32% upside

Current EV/EBITDA is 15.5 versus the three-year average of 11.1 – shares are more expensive than usual. P/E for the last twelve months is 23.5, also above historical levels for this company.

Nevertheless, on the portal's model, which re-prices EBITDA at current commodity prices and applies a target EV/EBITDA, the upside to fair value is estimated at +32%. This suggests the market has not fully priced in the improved environment.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The report is strong: profit quadrupled, margin doubled, and guidance was raised. Part of the growth is one-off (mark-to-market gains), but operational dynamics in key segments are sustainable. Debt burden is moderate, and cash flow covers investments and dividends. The main question for holders is whether growth is overvalued: multiples are above their own history, but the portal's model implies another 32% upside. Verdict – rather attractive.