Equinor: Q2 2026 profit up 3.7x, but the portal's model sees 45% downside

25 августа Equinor раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: выручка выросла на 37,4% год к году, до 34 523 млн долл., EBITDA – на 76,9%, до 15 583 млн долл., чистая прибыль – на 269,2%, до 4 848 млн долл.. При такой динамике акции выглядят непривлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA (3,17) выше собственного трёхлетнего среднего (2,17), а модель портала оценивает потенциал снижения в 45%.

Key takeaways

— Q2 2026 revenue rose 37.4% YoY to USD 34,523 million – the best quarter in two years

— EBITDA margin reached 46.9% versus 36.4% a year earlier – operating leverage worked on higher energy prices

— Net profit jumped 269.2% to USD 4,848 million, but almost half of that growth came from one-off factors

— Operating cash flow in Q2 2026 was USD 9,470 million, nearly double the average of the previous four quarters

— Capex fell 16.6% YoY to USD 2,872 million, supporting free cash flow

— Trailing dividend yield is 3.36%, below the three-year average and lower than current rouble bond yields

— EV/EBITDA of 3.17 is 46% above its own three-year average of 2.17, and the portal's model sees 45% downside

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Q2 2026 revenue rose 37.4% YoY to USD 34,523 million – the best quarter in two years

In Q2 2026, Equinor's revenue reached USD 34,523 million, up 37.4% from the same quarter a year earlier. This is the highest quarterly figure since Q1 2025, when revenue was USD 29,384 million. Growth accelerated after two quarters of decline: Q4 2025 revenue fell 8.5% and Q1 2026 fell 5.3%.

The quarterly trend shows the company has emerged from a period of weak energy prices. In Q2 2026, revenue rose 24.1% quarter-on-quarter (from USD 27,815 million), confirming the turnaround. However, over the last twelve months revenue was USD 115,500 million, only 2.6% higher than the previous twelve months – the year as a whole remains sluggish.

EBITDA margin reached 46.9% versus 36.4% a year earlier – operating leverage worked on higher energy prices

EBITDA in Q2 2026 rose 76.9% YoY to USD 15,583 million, and the EBITDA margin reached 46.9% versus 36.4% a year earlier. The margin expansion of almost 10.5 percentage points is a result of operating leverage: revenue grew 37.4% while EBITDA grew almost twice as fast.

The quarterly trend confirms the improvement: Q2 2026 EBITDA is 37.5% higher than in Q1 2026 (USD 11,333 million). Over the last twelve months, EBITDA was USD 45,433.6 million, 12.7% higher than the previous twelve months (USD 40,292 million – calculated).

Net profit jumped 269.2% to USD 4,848 million, but almost half of that growth came from one-off factors

Net profit in Q2 2026 was USD 4,848 million versus USD 1,313 million a year earlier. The 269.2% increase is the strongest in two years. However, a significant part of the gain is due to one-off items: the report mentions asset sales and tax effects that are not operational.

Excluding one-offs, profit would have been noticeably lower, but even operating profit more than doubled – from USD 5,721 million to USD 12,863 million. Over the last twelve months, net profit was USD 8,593.6 million, 22.6% higher than the previous twelve months (USD 7,010 million – calculated).

Operating cash flow in Q2 2026 was USD 9,470 million, nearly double the average of the previous four quarters

Operating cash flow (OCF) in Q2 2026 reached USD 9,470 million – the best quarterly figure in two years. For comparison, the average OCF over the previous four quarters (Q2 2025 to Q1 2026) was about USD 5,055 million. The OCF growth reflects not only higher profit but also improved working capital.

Over the last twelve months, OCF was USD 20,000 million, 18.3% higher than the previous twelve months (USD 16,900 million – calculated). Strong cash flow underpins dividends and debt reduction.

Capex fell 16.6% YoY to USD 2,872 million, supporting free cash flow

Capex in Q2 2026 was USD 2,872 million versus USD 3,444 million a year earlier. The 16.6% decline came amid rising revenue and EBITDA, pointing to investment discipline. Free cash flow (OCF minus capex) in Q2 2026 reached USD 6,598 million – the highest quarterly figure in two years.

Over the last twelve months, capex was USD 13,554 million (calculated), 1.5% higher than the previous twelve months. The company maintains its investment programme but is not expanding it at an accelerating pace.

Trailing dividend yield is 3.36%, below the three-year average and lower than current rouble bond yields

Over the last twelve months, Equinor paid dividends of 3.36% of the current price. This is below the three-year average dividend yield, which we estimate at around 4.5%. For an investor comparing with rouble bonds, the current yield may seem insufficient, especially given currency risk.

We expect that for 2026 the company will maintain or slightly increase the dividend per share, given strong cash flow and low debt. However, the final amount will depend on oil and gas prices and board decisions. If energy prices remain at current levels, the dividend could be around USD 0.30 per share (our estimate), giving a yield of about 3.5%.

EV/EBITDA of 3.17 is 46% above its own three-year average of 2.17, and the portal's model sees 45% downside

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 3.17 versus the three-year average of 2.17. This means the market values the company 46% higher than the average over the past three years. Even with the strong Q2 report, such a premium looks stretched, especially if energy prices correct.

Our portal's model, which re-prices EBITDA at current commodity prices and applies a target EV/EBITDA, shows a potential downside of 45% from the current level. This is not a consensus forecast but the result of our own model. Meanwhile, P/E LTM stands at 13.69, also above the three-year average (which we estimate at around 10).

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The Q2 2026 report is strong: revenue and EBITDA grew at double-digit rates, the margin reached 46.9%, and free cash flow hit a two-year high. However, almost half of the net profit growth came from one-off items, and multiples are above their own history. At the current price, the shares look unattractive: the portal's model points to 45% downside, and the dividend yield is below the three-year average. A change in the verdict would require either higher energy prices or a decline in the share price to levels consistent with the average EV/EBITDA.