Phillips 66: quarterly profit up 4.4x, but almost all from one-offs

5 августа 2026 года Phillips 66 раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: выручка выросла на 53,1% год к году, до 51 004 млн долл., EBITDA — на 101,2%, до 4 865 млн долл., чистая прибыль — на 338,7%, до 3 847 млн долл.. Однако почти вся прибыль обеспечена разовыми статьями: продажей доли в европейском розничном бизнесе и юридическими резервами, а без них скорректированная прибыль составила 3 788 млн долл.. На текущей цене акция выглядит привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA (16,3) выше собственного трёхлетнего среднего (13,2), но модель портала даёт потенциал роста +32%.

Key takeaways

— Выручка выросла на 53% благодаря консолидации НПЗ и высоким маржам переработки

— EBITDA удвоилась, но почти половина — разовые эффекты от продажи европейского бизнеса

— Чистая прибыль выросла в 4,4 раза, но без разовых статей она была бы на 40% ниже

— Долг сократился на 5,5 млрд долл. за квартал, до 16,5 млрд

— Капзатраты выросли на 24% к предыдущему кварталу, до 726 млн долл.

— Дивиденд за квартал составил 508 млн долл., или 1,26 долл. на акцию

— Акция выросла на 26,7% после отчёта, но всё ещё ниже модели портала на 32%

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue up 53% on refinery consolidation and strong refining margins

In Q2 2026, Phillips 66 revenue reached $51,004 million, up 53.1% year-over-year. The main driver was the consolidation of 100% of the Borger and Wood River refineries, fully reflected since October 2025, and higher realized refining margins of $24.08/bbl versus $10.11/bbl in Q1 2026.

Refining utilization was 96%, clean product yield 86%. Adjusted earnings in the Refining segment rose to $3,086 million from $208 million in Q1, reflecting favorable market conditions and positive mark-to-market effects.

EBITDA doubled, but almost half from one-offs on European business sale

EBITDA for Q2 2026 was $4,865 million, up 101.2% year-over-year. However, the company discloses adjusted EBITDA of $5,891 million, which includes adjustments for one-off items: a net gain on asset dispositions of $110 million (related to the sale of 65% of its Germany and Austria retail business) and legal accruals of $65 million.

Excluding these items, adjusted EBITDA would have been around $5.7 billion, still well above prior-year levels, but growth would have been less impressive. The main contributors were Refining ($3,307 million) and Midstream ($1,046 million).

Net profit up 4.4x, but without one-offs it would be 40% lower

Net profit for Q2 2026 was $3,847 million, up 338.7% year-over-year. However, this includes one-off gains: a net gain from the sale of the European business ($110 million) and legal accruals ($65 million). Adjusted net profit was $3,788 million, meaning the difference between reported and adjusted profit is only $59 million.

Nevertheless, even adjusted profit of $3.8 billion is an all-time high for the company, reflecting exceptionally favorable refining conditions. Excluding one-offs, profit would be about 1.5% lower, but still many times higher than a year ago.

Debt reduced by $5.5 billion in the quarter, to $16.5 billion

Net debt at the end of Q2 2026 was $16,466 million, down $5.5 billion from the end of Q1 ($21,974 million). The company reduced total debt by $6.6 billion in the quarter to $20,565 million, with cash of $4,099 million.

Net debt to EBITDA for the trailing twelve months is 2.67, reflecting lower leverage after a quarter with record operating cash flow of $7,259 million. Debt reduction is one of the company's priorities, alongside dividends and buybacks.

Capex up 24% from previous quarter, to $726 million

Capital expenditures and investments in Q2 2026 were $726 million, up 24% from Q1 ($582 million). The increase is related to continued projects in gas processing and petrochemicals, including the startup of the Dos Picos II plant and construction of new Zeus and Coastal Bend facilities.

Operating cash flow in Q2 was $7,259 million, more than covering capex and dividends. Free cash flow after capex was about $6.5 billion, allowing the company to simultaneously reduce debt and return capital to shareholders.

Quarterly dividend was $508 million, or $1.26 per share

In Q2 2026, Phillips 66 paid dividends of $508 million, or approximately $1.26 per share. Over the trailing twelve months, the dividend yield was 1.92% at the current share price.

The company remains committed to dividend growth, but debt reduction is a priority. At current earnings and cash flow, dividends are covered with a wide margin, but if refining conditions deteriorate, the company may adjust the pace of payout growth.

Stock up 26.7% after report, but still 32% below portal's model

After the report on August 5, 2026, Phillips 66 stock rose 26.7% by September 9, 2026, reflecting both strong results and improved conditions. However, even after this rise, market capitalization is $104,609 million, and EV/EBITDA for the trailing twelve months is 16.3, above its own three-year average of 13.2.

According to the portal's model, which re-prices EBITDA at current product prices and applies a target multiple, the fair value of the share is 32% above the current price. This suggests the market has not fully priced in the improvement in operations and debt reduction.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The Q2 2026 report showed exceptionally strong results: revenue up 53%, EBITDA doubled, net profit up 4.4x, and net debt reduced by $5.5 billion in the quarter. However, a significant part of profit is from one-offs – the European business sale and legal accruals – as well as favorable refining conditions that may prove unsustainable. Nevertheless, even without one-offs, the company generates record cash flow, allowing it to simultaneously reduce debt and return capital to shareholders. At the current price, the share looks attractive: the portal's model gives 32% upside, and the multiple, although above its own average, is justified by improved operations. The key question for holders is whether refining margins will persist, and if not, how quickly the company can adapt.