CCBN: Q1 2026 profit down 25.1% — the bank pays for rapid interest income growth

В конце апреля CCBN раскрыла результаты за первый квартал 2026 года: чистая прибыль составила 61,1 млрд тенге, что на 25,1% ниже, чем годом ранее. Процентные доходы выросли на 35,9% до 105,8 млрд тенге, но маржа сжалась, и при текущей цене акция выглядит скорее привлекательно: P/E LTM 3,16 и ROE 27,9% при потенциале роста по модели портала +26%.

Key takeaways

— Прибыль Q1 2026 упала на 25,1% год к году, несмотря на рост процентных доходов на 35,9%

— Процентные доходы Q1 2026 выросли на 35,9% до 105,8 млрд тенге, но темпы замедлились с 49,8% годом ранее

— Рентабельность капитала 27,9% остаётся высокой, но P/E LTM 3,16 — ниже среднего за три года

— Модель портала оценивает потенциал роста акции в +26% от текущей цены

— Банк торгуется с P/E LTM 3,16, что предполагает дисконт к историческим уровням

Attractiveness

Key figures, KZT bn

Q1 2026 profit fell 25.1% YoY despite 35.9% interest income growth

In Q1 2026, CCBN's net profit was 61.1 billion tenge, down 25.1% from the same quarter of 2025. Interest income grew 35.9% to 105.8 billion tenge, pointing to margin compression or higher provisioning.

The decline in profit despite revenue growth suggests the bank is either increasing provisions or facing operating costs growing faster than revenue. The report does not disclose the reason, but the trend warrants watching asset quality and efficiency.

Q1 2026 interest income rose 35.9% to 105.8 billion tenge, but growth slowed from 49.8% a year earlier

Interest income for Q1 2026 reached 105.8 billion tenge, up 35.9% year-on-year. However, in Q1 2024 growth was 49.8%, and in Q1 2025 it was 35.9%, meaning growth has been slowing for two consecutive years.

The slowdown in interest income growth alongside falling profit suggests the bank is approaching a yield ceiling amid possible rate cuts or intensifying competition. In Q3 2025, growth also slowed to 16.7% from 46.3% a year earlier, confirming the trend.

ROE of 27.9% remains high, but P/E LTM of 3.16 is below the three-year average

For the trailing twelve months, CCBN's net profit was 267.6 billion tenge, implying an ROE of 27.9% – a high level confirming the bank's ability to generate profit on invested capital.

With a market cap of 844.3 billion tenge, the share trades at a P/E LTM of 3.16, noticeably below the three-year average. The discount may reflect market concerns about slowing growth and margin pressure, but it also creates upside potential for the share price.

The portal's model estimates the share's upside at +26% from the current price

According to the portal's model, based on the ratio of ROE to book value, CCBN's share has an upside of +26% to fair value. This is the model's own calculation, not a market consensus or target price.

The share is included in the 'KZ Fundamental potential (AI)' strategy on the portal, reflecting its compliance with fundamental selection criteria. However, this is merely a fact of inclusion, not an argument for buying – the decision should rely on analysis of metrics and risks.

The bank trades at a P/E LTM of 3.16, implying a discount to historical levels

A P/E LTM of 3.16 is a low valuation for a bank with an ROE of 27.9%. Historically, such levels correspond to periods of elevated risks or expectations of deteriorating financial results.

The decline in profit in Q1 2026 and slowing interest income growth may explain the discount. Nevertheless, if the bank maintains profitability at current levels, the current price offers a margin of safety.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

CCBN's strength remains its high ROE of 27.9% and low P/E LTM of 3.16, giving the share upside potential of +26% on the portal's model. However, the 25.1% profit decline in Q1 2026 and slowing interest income growth to 35.9% point to deteriorating operating dynamics. If the bank cannot stabilise its margin or offset higher provisions, the current discount may persist. Still, with ROE near 28%, the share looks rather attractive.