Liverpool: revenue nearly flat, profit down 17.2% as cautious consumer and one-offs bite

27 апреля 2026 года El Puerto de Liverpool раскрыла результаты за первый квартал 2026 года: выручка составила 45 417,6 млн мексиканских песо, что на 0,2% ниже уровня годичной давности, EBITDA снизилась на 6,2% до 5 143,4 млн, а чистая прибыль упала на 17,2% до 1 914,7 млн. Слабый потребительский спрос, операционные сбои и разовые расходы в 150 млн песо привели к снижению маржинальности, что делает акции скорее непривлекательными на текущей цене, особенно с учётом модели портала, оценивающей потенциал роста в -75%.

Key takeaways

— Выручка почти не выросла: коммерческий сегмент упал на 1,9%, но финансы и недвижимость вытянули общий результат

— EBITDA сократилась на 6,2%: давление на маржу из-за операционных проблем и роста расходов

— Чистая прибыль упала на 17,2%: сказались разовые расходы и слабый потребительский спрос

— Долг вырос на 72,5 млрд песо за 12 месяцев, но отношение долга к EBITDA остаётся низким

— Дивиденд за 2025 год составил 3 959 млн песо, что даёт доходность 2,9% при текущей цене

— Оценка по модели портала указывает на потенциал снижения на 75% от текущей капитализации

Attractiveness

Key figures, MXN bn

Revenue barely grew: commercial segment fell 1.9%, but financial and real estate segments propped up the total

In the first quarter of 2026, total revenue was MXN 45,417.6 million, down 0.2% year-on-year. The commercial segment (including Liverpool, Suburbia, and others) contracted 1.9% to MXN 38,347 million, with Liverpool and boutiques sales down 0.2% and Suburbia down 3.4%.

The decline is attributed to a cautious consumer more focused on promotions, as well as operational challenges with the timely flow of imported merchandise, especially apparel and footwear. Temporary store closures in February due to security events in Jalisco and other regions also weighed. Meanwhile, the financial segment grew 11.6% and real estate 4.4%, partially offsetting the drop in commercial revenues.

Digital sales continued to grow: GMV increased 12.4%, and digital penetration at Liverpool reached 31.4% (up 314 basis points).

EBITDA fell 6.2%: margin pressure from operational issues and higher expenses

EBITDA for the first quarter of 2026 was MXN 5,143.4 million, down 6.2% year-on-year. EBITDA margin fell from 12.0% to 11.3%.

Operating expenses (excluding provisions, depreciation, and amortization) rose 6.2%, and including all items, they increased 7.5%. Higher personnel costs and one-off expenses of MXN 150 million to ensure operational stability and supply chain continuity pressured profitability.

The commercial margin (gross profit of the commercial segment) improved 70 basis points to 30.9% thanks to disciplined merchandise management and a more favorable exchange rate, but this was not enough to offset higher operating expenses.

Net profit fell 17.2%: one-offs and weak consumer demand took their toll

Net profit for the first quarter of 2026 was MXN 1,914.7 million, down 17.2% year-on-year. Net margin fell from 5.1% to 4.2%.

Besides operational factors, profit was affected by a 25.3% increase in the provision for doubtful accounts to MXN 1,485 million, linked to a deterioration in credit portfolio quality (the overdue loan index rose from 3.7% to 4.4%).

Share of results of associates was a loss of MXN 26 million versus a profit of MXN 137 million a year earlier, also impacting the bottom line.

Debt rose MXN 72.5 billion over 12 months, but debt-to-EBITDA remains low

Net debt as of March 31, 2026, was MXN 11,223.7 million (per the balance sheet), up MXN 16.3 billion from the previous reporting date and MXN 72.5 billion over the last 12 months. The increase is linked to significant investments and debt repayments.

Despite the increase, the net debt to EBITDA ratio (trailing twelve months) stands at just 0.58x, indicating a comfortable leverage level. The company notes that 100% of its debt is at fixed rates with a weighted average cost of 8.92%.

Operating cash flow in the first quarter of 2026 was positive at MXN 2,128.7 million, contrasting with a negative flow a year earlier (-MXN 6,161 million).

Dividend for 2025 was MXN 3,959 million, yielding 2.9% at the current price

The annual shareholders' meeting on April 14, 2026, approved a dividend from accumulated net profit of MXN 3,959 million, equivalent to MXN 2.95 per share. The first payment of MXN 2,376 million (MXN 1.77 per share) was made on May 22, and the second of MXN 1,583 million (MXN 1.18 per share) on October 9.

The total dividend represents 23.1% of 2025 net profit, up from 17.1% in 2024. At the current market capitalization of MXN 134,407.5 million, the trailing twelve-month dividend yield is 2.9%.

Our estimate for the current year assumes payouts at a similar level if profit does not continue to decline. The key factor is the company's ability to restore sales growth and control expenses.

The portal's model suggests a 75% downside from the current market cap

According to our value-creation model, which compares EBITDA growth times the target multiple against market cap, the upside to fair value is -75% (on the portal's model). This implies the current price is significantly above the fundamental-based estimate.

Meanwhile, shares trade at a P/E (LTM) of about 7.8x, which looks inexpensive but reflects declining profit. EV/EBITDA (3-year average) is 3.99x, which may suggest an undervaluation relative to history, but the portal's model accounts for future growth deceleration.

Investors should note that the portal's model is an internal estimate, not a market consensus or target price.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

В первом квартале 2026 года Liverpool показала слабые результаты: выручка практически не изменилась, EBITDA и чистая прибыль заметно снизились из-за осторожного потребителя, операционных проблем и разовых расходов. Позитивными моментами стали рост финансового и недвижимого сегментов, улучшение коммерческой маржи и положительный операционный денежный поток. Однако снижение прибыли и высокая оценка по модели портала делают акции скорее непривлекательными на текущем уровне. Для изменения вердикта необходимо восстановление роста продаж и стабилизация маржинальности.