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IDGC Ural: Q2 profit up 2.5x while revenue growth slowed to +15.2%

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On 28 August IDGC Ural reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue reached RUB 31,907.6 mn (+15.2% YoY), EBITDA – RUB 7,381.9 mn (+35.6%), net profit – RUB 5,410.7 mn (+149.5%). Profit growth outpaced revenue on margin: the EBITDA margin rose to 23.1% from 19.7%, the net margin to 17.0% from 7.8%. Our verdict: rather attractive – the portal model puts upside to fair value at +97%, and EV/EBITDA of 1.9 is 10% below its own three-year average of 2.1. Our view: the share is rather attractive at the current price; upside on the portal model +97%.

Our view: is there upside

Our view in numbers

MetricOur read
VerdictRather attractive
Upside on the portal model+97%
How the model worksfundamental value-creation model: EBITDA growth times the target multiple, against market cap
EV/EBITDA now and 3-year average1.9 vs 2.1 – a 10% discount to its history
Dividend yield, 12m9.4%
Net debt / EBITDA0.31 – low leverage
Strongest case forEV/EBITDA of 1.9 against its own three-year average of 2.1 is a 10% discount, and the portal model puts upside at +97%.
Strongest case againstThe 9.4% dividend yield is below the 10.5% we consider fair and below the 14.0% key rate.
What would change the viewIf the EBITDA margin holds above 20% as revenue slows and the payout rises toward 10.5%, the verdict moves up a step to "attractive"; if capex exceeds operating cash flow, a step down.

Key takeaways

— Revenue grew 15.2%, slower than the 18.7% a quarter earlier

— Profit rose 2.5x, and almost all of the gain came from margin, not one-offs

— Leverage is low: net debt of RUB 11.9 bn against LTM EBITDA of RUB 38.7 bn

— Free cash flow was positive in the quarter, but the dividend absorbs almost all of profit

— The 9.4% dividend yield is below the 10.5% we consider fair for the name

— The stock trades at a 10% discount to its own history on EV/EBITDA

Key figures, RUB bn

MetricQ2 2025Q2 2026Change
Revenue27.731.9+15.2%
EBITDA5.457.38+35.6%
Operating profit3.146.65+111.9%
Net profit2.175.41+149.5%
Operating cash flow6.754.98-26.2%
Capex3.544.62+30.5%
EBITDA margin19.7%23.1%+3.4 pp
Net margin7.8%17.0%+9.2 pp

Revenue grew 15.2%, slower than the 18.7% a quarter earlier

Q2 2026 revenue reached RUB 31,907.6 mn, up 15.2% year on year. That is a slowdown from 18.7% in Q1. The deceleration runs off a high base: Q2 2025 revenue was RUB 27,707.9 mn, while Q1 2025 was RUB 31,776.0 mn.

By segment, Chelyabenergo and Permenergo made the main contribution. Chelyabenergo's external revenue for the three months was RUB 7,995.1 mn versus RUB 7,021.3 mn a year earlier; Permenergo – RUB 8,511.2 mn versus RUB 7,586.8 mn. Sverdlovenergo brought RUB 14,811.7 mn versus RUB 12,629.7 mn, and the Ekaterinburg grid company RUB 495.7 mn versus RUB 378.2 mn.

Within revenue, electricity transmission remains the main source: across the group it contributed RUB 31,777.3 mn of the RUB 33,541.3 mn segment revenue. Technological connection to grids brought RUB 1,189.3 mn versus RUB 1,168.4 mn a year earlier – barely changed. Other revenue was RUB 522.4 mn versus RUB 447.9 mn.

Revenue and EBITDA by quarter

EBITDA margin

Profit rose 2.5x, and almost all of the gain came from margin, not one-offs

Q2 2026 net profit reached RUB 5,410.7 mn versus RUB 2,168.9 mn a year earlier, a 2.5-fold increase. Operating profit rose to RUB 6,652.3 mn from RUB 3,139.7 mn. EBITDA – to RUB 7,381.9 mn from RUB 5,445.5 mn, up 35.6%.

Margin produced the gain. The EBITDA margin rose to 23.1% from 19.7%, the net margin to 17.0% from 7.8%. Operating expenses grew to RUB 25,997.2 mn from RUB 24,874.5 mn, i.e. 4.5% – three times slower than revenue. That gap is the main effect.

There are one-offs in profit, but they are small against net profit. Other income was RUB 534.2 mn versus RUB 380.8 mn; other expenses RUB 12.7 mn versus RUB 13.6 mn. A reversal of the expected credit loss provision added RUB 220.4 mn versus a charge of RUB 65.5 mn a year earlier. Together that is about RUB 0.8 bn against RUB 5.4 bn of net profit – roughly a sixth, not the source of growth.

Financial income rose to RUB 1,322.4 mn from RUB 898.8 mn, while financial expenses fell to RUB 983.3 mn from RUB 1,201.4 mn. Net financial income was RUB 339.1 mn versus net expenses of RUB 302.6 mn a year earlier. That also supported profit, but the main contribution remains operating margin.

Net profit by quarter

Leverage is low: net debt of RUB 11.9 bn against LTM EBITDA of RUB 38.7 bn

Net debt at 30 June 2026 was RUB 11,912.4 mn. The ratio of net debt to LTM EBITDA is 0.31. That is a level, not a direction: the earlier value is not disclosed in the facts, so no judgement on whether leverage rose or fell can be made.

Net debt itself fell over the quarter: from RUB 13,331.7 mn at 31 March 2026 to RUB 11,912.4 mn at 30 June 2026, a decrease of RUB 1.4 bn. Over 12 months – from RUB 22,249.5 mn at 30 June 2025 to RUB 11,912.4 mn at 30 June 2026, a decrease of RUB 10.3 bn.

The cash flow confirms the low leverage. Operating cash flow for the quarter was RUB 4,980.2 mn, capital expenditure – RUB 4,620.9 mn. The difference is positive, about RUB 0.36 bn. For the first half, operating cash flow was RUB 15,800.1 mn and capex RUB 11,067.4 mn. That funds investment without adding debt.

Financial expenses for the quarter fell to RUB 983.3 mn from RUB 1,201.4 mn a year earlier. With the key rate at 14.0% and low leverage, the interest burden on profit is small: a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 0.31 leaves room.

Net debt

at each reporting date, current net debt / EBITDA (LTM) = 0.31

Free cash flow was positive in the quarter, but the dividend absorbs almost all of profit

Q2 2026 operating cash flow was RUB 4,980.2 mn, capital expenditure – RUB 4,620.9 mn. Free cash flow is positive, about RUB 0.36 bn. For the first half, operating cash flow was RUB 15,800.1 mn and capex RUB 11,067.4 mn, leaving free cash flow of about RUB 4.7 bn.

The dividend history is uneven. For 2024, RUB 0.0928 per share was paid at a 14.9% yield at the ex-date; for 2025, RUB 0.0374 at 9.5%; for 2026, RUB 0.0612 at 10.3%. The 2026 payment has already been made and gives 9.4% on the current price.

Our annual dividend estimate is RUB 0.06 per share, 9.2% on the current price. The estimate rests on the dividend-potential model with a payout ratio of 0.47 of profit and a profit base of RUB 18,158.0 mn. The free-cash-flow cap does not bind: the flow covers the payment. The board decides.

The 9.4% yield is below the 10.5% we consider fair for this name. With the key rate at 14.0%, the spread to the rate is negative. For a dividend stock that is the main argument against: the investor gets less than the risk demands.

Valuation vs its own history

now vs the 3-year average

The 9.4% dividend yield is below the 10.5% we consider fair for the name

The last payment was RUB 0.0612 per share for 2026, a 10.3% yield at the ex-date and 9.4% on the current price. That is above the 2025 payment (RUB 0.0374) but below the 2024 payment (RUB 0.0928). The spread is wide: the company's policy does not guarantee a stable level.

Our estimate for the next year is RUB 0.06 per share, 9.2% on the price of 0.6506. It rests on a payout ratio of 0.47 of profit and a profit base of RUB 18,158.0 mn. The free-cash-flow cap does not bind. The estimate is ours, not the company's forecast; the board decides.

The fair yield for this name, in our estimate, is 10.5%. The current 9.4% is 1.1 percentage points below. With the key rate at 14.0%, the stock offers no premium to the risk-free rate. That limits its appeal for a dividend investor.

What could cut the payout: higher capex, one-off costs or lower profit. In the first half, capex was already RUB 11,067.4 mn – more than half of annual operating cash flow. If the investment programme grows, free cash flow shrinks and the dividend would have to be trimmed.

Share price, three years

close, last point 2026-11-06

The stock trades at a 10% discount to its own history on EV/EBITDA

EV/EBITDA over the last 12 months is 1.9, the three-year average 2.1. A 10% discount. That means the stock is cheaper than its three-year average. P/E LTM is 2.9, low for a company with a 23.1% EBITDA margin and 24.1% ROE.

The portal model puts upside to fair value at +97%. The model builds its estimate on EBITDA growth and a target multiple. That is our own estimate, not a market consensus or a target price.

Market capitalisation is RUB 56,882.3 mn, net debt RUB 11,912.4 mn. With LTM EBITDA of RUB 38,664.5 mn, EV/EBITDA of 1.9 looks low for a company with such a margin and low leverage. The discount to history and the model's upside point the same way.

The stock is held in the portal's live model strategies – RU AI conviction (Claude). That is a fact, not an argument for the verdict: each strategy screens on its own criteria.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

MetricValue
Market cap56.9 bn ₽
P/E (LTM)2.9
EV/EBITDA (LTM)1.9
P/B0.69
Net debt / EBITDA (LTM)0.31
Operating cash flow (LTM)25.9 bn
ROE24.1%
Dividend yield (12m)9.4%
EV/EBITDA, 3-year average2.1

Dividend per share, ₽, and yield at the ex-date

Year paidDividendYield
20200.016.2%
20220.029.7%
20230.027.7%
20240.0914.9%
20250.049.5%
20260.0610.3%

Dividend per share by year paid

₽ per share by year paid; yield at the ex-date

Yield at the ex-date

₽ per share by year paid; yield at the ex-date

Dividend per share and yield at the ex-date

Bottom line

The strong part was Q2: profit rose 2.5x, the EBITDA margin climbed to 23.1%, and operating expenses grew three times slower than revenue. The weak part was revenue deceleration to 15.2% from 18.7% and a 9.4% dividend yield below the 10.5% we consider fair. Leverage is low – 0.31 net debt to LTM EBITDA – which leaves room. The key question for a holder: can the company hold its margin as revenue slows, and will free cash flow cover the dividend. Our verdict: rather attractive – the portal model puts upside to fair value at +97%, and EV/EBITDA of 1.9 is 10% below its own three-year average of 2.1. Our view: the share is rather attractive at the current price; upside on the portal model +97%.