Sector: Oil sands
COMM_ATH
Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.
Shares: connector/market_inputs
Monetary columns are in M USD, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.
| Date | Period | Status | RevenueM USD | Operating profitM USD | D&AM USD | EBITDAM USD | Net profitM USD | Operating CFM USD | Capex + M&AM USD | AssetsM USD | EquityM USD | ROE (annualized) | Net debtM USD | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Q2 2026 (3M) | OK | 246.4 y/y -5.4% | 73.4 y/y 4.5% | 22.9 y/y 1.6% | 96.3 y/y 3.8% | 47.6 y/y 15.7% | 96.3 | -68.6 | 1861.0 y/y 2.8% | 1318.7 y/y 1.7% | 14.4% | -60.5 | Yahoo Finance |
| 2026-03-31 | Q1 2026 (3M) | OK | 288.1 y/y 12.7% | 66.0 y/y -2.9% | 25.1 y/y 15.7% | 91.0 y/y 1.6% | 33.6 y/y -32.8% | 74.2 | -86.6 | 1918.0 y/y 12.1% | 1325.6 y/y 8.8% | 10.3% | -58.1 | Yahoo Finance |
| 2025-12-31 | Q4 2025 (3M) | OK | 216.3 y/y — | 55.5 y/y — | 25.9 y/y — | 81.3 y/y — | 33.5 y/y — | 99.3 | -68.6 | 1862.9 y/y 8.3% | 1295.6 y/y 6.7% | 13.5% | -86.6 | Yahoo Finance |
| 2025-06-30 | Q2 2025 (3M) | OK | 260.4 y/y — | 70.2 y/y — | 22.6 y/y — | 92.8 y/y — | 41.1 y/y — | 73.3 | -37.4 | 1810.4 y/y — | 1296.3 y/y — | 13.1% | -78.9 | Yahoo Finance |
| 2025-03-31 | Q1 2025 (3M) | OK | 255.7 y/y — | 67.9 y/y — | 21.7 y/y — | 89.6 y/y — | 50.0 y/y — | 85.7 | -61.1 | 1710.9 y/y — | 1217.9 y/y — | 16.5% | -75.6 | Yahoo Finance |
| 2024-12-31 | FY 2024 (12M) | OK | 1049.7 y/y 11.7% | 316.7 y/y — | 83.7 y/y 2.0% | 400.4 y/y 426.3% | 340.5 y/y — | 405.8 | -183.0 | 1719.9 y/y 11.2% | 1214.3 y/y 1.6% | 28.3% | -103.6 | Yahoo Finance |
| 2023-12-31 | FY 2023 (12M) | OK | 940.0 y/y — | -6.0 y/y — | 82.1 y/y — | 76.1 y/y — | -38.0 y/y — | 226.4 | — | 1546.0 y/y — | 1195.0 y/y — | — | -123.5 | Yahoo Finance |
| Long-term debt (incl. LT leases) | 144 |
| − Cash & equivalents | 205 |
| Net debt | -61 |
|---|
Net debt / LTM EBITDA: -0.2x
Quarterly values ($ mln)
Year-over-year change
FCF ($ mln)
Net debt / cash ($ mln)
Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.
Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements
| Year | Reserves, mln boe (2P) |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 1 280 |
| Year | Production, mln boe | per day, mln boe |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14.37 +7.0% | 0.04 |
| 2024 | 13.44 | 0.04 |
Company reports: https://www.atha.com/media/attachments/2026/03/04/athabasca---2025-annual-information-form-2.pdf; https://www.atha.com/uploads/AOC_Q2_2026_Press_Release_07-29-2026_vF.pdf; https://www.atha.com/uploads/ATH_-_Q2_-_MDA_-_2026_FINAL.pdf; https://www.atha.com/uploads/ATH_-_Q4_-_MDA_-_2025_FINAL.pdf
Current 94spot vs LTM +30%
Target market cap from conservative EBITDA and the historical EV/EBITDA
Upside: -3.4% → +0.0 pp 1d
Main driver: WTI Crude Oil +31% vs LTM; revenue ×1.28 vs costs ×1.04; EBITDA 321→465; at 7.3× EV/EBITDA → -3%.
Product prices — moves vs the LTM average
| Commodity | Share | Spot | LTM | 3-yr | vs LTM, $ | 3y vs LTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Oil (rev) | +92% | 93.93 | 71.96 | 76.52 | +31% | +6% |
How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → target market cap
| 1 · Reported baseline (LTM) | |
| LTM revenue | 1 011 |
| LTM EBITDA | 321 |
| LTM cash costs (revenue − EBITDA) | 690 |
| 2 · Revenue projection | |
| Revenue multiplier — spot | ×1.281 (+28%) |
| = Spot revenue | 1 295 |
| Revenue multiplier — 3y price | ×1.058 (+6%) |
| = 3-year-price revenue | 1 070 |
| 3 · Costs projection | |
| Cost multiplier — spot | ×1.040 (+4%) |
| = Spot cash costs | 718 |
| Cost multiplier — 3y price | ×1.040 (+4%) |
| = 3-year-price cash costs | 718 |
| 4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs) | |
| = Spot EBITDA | 577 |
| = 3-year-price EBITDA | 352 |
| Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg) | 465 |
| 5 · Valuation → target market cap | |
| Historical EV/EBITDA (75th pct) | 7.3x |
| Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA | 3 388 |
| Net debt | -61 |
| Target market cap = EV − net debt | 3 470 |
| Current market cap | 3 591 |
Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = -3.4%
Spot model vs reported — what the spot model projected (trailing-LTM base brought to the period × the period's commodity-price move) against the actual report, per reported period (quarter, half-year or full year — per the filer's calendar); amounts in USD mln. green = reported above projection, pink = below.
| Period | Act. rev | Model rev | Δ rev | Act. EBITDA | Model EBITDA | Δ EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 FY | 940 | 966 | -2.7% | 252 | 51 | +395.4% |
| 2024 FY | 1 050 | 918 | +14.3% | 570 | 202 | +181.9% |
| 2025 FY | 974 | 911 | +6.9% | 342 | 413 | -17.2% |
Projected EV/EBITDA 6.5x · target 75th pct (3y) 15.3x · LTM avg 7.3x
No dividend rows found for this issuer (checked: Yahoo Finance (ex-div)).
Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)
Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Athabasca Oil — from primary filings.
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